Monday, December 7, 2009

Holy Crap Best Week Ever

14-2 (87.5%) Straight up, with 4 correct underdog picks (SEA line closed at +1)
14-2 (87.5%) ATS
12-4 (75.0%) O/U


Including the analysis posted in a Week 13 Picks comment predicting MIA win over NE by a last minute FG.

Season Results

Things really started to turn around when I made the 2nd adjustment to the scores, beginning in week 9.
Here are NFLSim's mind-blowing results from the past 3 weeks:

38-10 (79%) straight up
33-11 (75%) ATS; 24-4 (86%) when pick is at least 60% confident
32-14 (70%) O/U



STRAIGHT UP



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
19
13
68.4%
60-69
18
15
83.3%
70-79
11
10
90.9%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
48
38
79.2%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
16
9
56.3%
60-69
22
19
86.4%
70-79
6
5
83.3%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
44
33
75.0%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
33
23
69.7%
60-69
12
8
66.7%
70-79
0
0
---
80-89
1
1
100.0%
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
46
32
69.6%

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Results Spreadsheet

Finally on a good run. Hoping the mid-season lull is over.

Over the past 2 weeks, NFLSim is 24-8 (75%) straight up; 19-9 (68%) ATS; 20-10 (67%) O/U.
---------
Here are the results from the rest of the season:
2009 Season Results

I divided the season into 3 sets of 4 weeks, 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12. At week 5 I made an adjustment to the way the spread was calculated. At week 9 I rolled back that adjustment and started a new one. The new one seems to be working well.


On the bottom of the worksheet, you'll find some more info.

---------
Week 11 record:

STRAIGHT UP


CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
5
83.33%
60-69
8
5
62.50%
70-79
2
2
100.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
16
12
75.00%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
3
50.00%
60-69
5
4
80.00%
70-79
3
3
100.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
14
10
71.43%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
10
7
70.00%
60-69
5
4
80.00%
70-79
0
0
---
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
11
73.33%


Week 12 record:

STRAIGHT UP


CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
2
33.33%
60-69
5
5
100.00%
70-79
5
5
100.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
16
12
75.00%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
4
2
50.00%
60-69
8
6
75.00%
70-79
2
1
50.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
14
9
64.29%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
10
6
60.00%
60-69
4
2
50.00%
70-79
0
0
---
80-89
1
1
100.00%
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
9
60.00%

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Week 12 Picks

Happy Turkey Day!

It's nice getting enough time to set up the picks this week and breathe. The turkey and pumpkin pie don't hurt either.


Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy


Thursday, November 19, 2009

Week 11 Picks

Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Week 10 Picks

Week 10 Picks, Stats, and Fantasy


All of the Fantasy Projections are up with the exceptions of the Sunday night and Monday night teams. They will be added this evening.

All of the Fantasy Projections are up with plenty of time to refine your lineup.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Week 9 Picks

Coming soon...

Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy