Results through week 7

Yes, I'm only at week 7. I'm putting NFLSim away for a couple weeks to focus on basketball... nbablackbox.blogspot.com, where I'm 204-51 (80.0%), when picking the winner of the game. (no spread). 178-123(59.1%) with the spread. But just like football, when you're picking with that kind of accuracy, you can make money with the moneyline. Soccer is also in the works, and the backtest results are very, very promising; a sport where the only main bet is 'who will win'. Perfect. Don't think I've forgotten about baseball! Once enough stats have accumulated I'll try my hardest to do better than the 1000's of guys who've come before me. And you can bet that I will! (pun intended)

Since there are so many numbers, I'm going to skip the details and just post the main stats. If you want the details...I don't know why you would... just send me an email. This is for weeks 2-7, 87 games in all.

Win		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	41	30	73.2%
	60-69	22	17	77.3%
	70-79	17	10	58.8%
	80-89	7	6	85.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	63	72.4%
Spread		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	35	15	42.9%
	60-69	29	18	62.1%
	70-79	20	12	60.0%
	80-89	3	2	66.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	47	54.0%
Over		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	17	13	76.5%
	60-69	26	13	50.0%
	70-79	27	15	55.6%
	80-89	15	9	60.0%
	90-100	2	2	100.0%
	Total	87	52	59.8%

Thats pretty good. Win: 72.4%, Spread: 54%, O/U: 59.8%
Really, it was just one bad week that brought the numbers down, unfortunately bad weeks are unavoidable and if anyone tells you otherwise, they're trying to scam you.

That's it for now. You can find me at nbablackbox.blogspot.com, mlbblackbox.blogspot.com, and soccerblackbox.blogspot.com. The latter 2 are under construction- soccer will feature the main leagues from England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. It will be up sooner than MLB, probably sometime this week.


Good luck, all! Be responsible, don't be greedy, and don't get scammed.

A Quick Word

Just a post telling you I'm still around. The testing is still going on, I'm halfway through week 6. My crappy laptop is running Visual Basic as fast as it can 24/7. As long as it doesn't die, we're in good shape. Conversion from Visual Basic to Java or C++ may be in the works 'soon'. Again, any thoughts, comments, questions, rants, job offers, or any other kind of feedback is greatly appreciated, especially job offers.

Backtest Update

Hi Everybody!
I'm a quarter through the 2007 season and things are looking great. I've just finished simulating weeks 2, 3, and 4. Without getting into too much detail- I'll get more detailed once the season is completely simulated- here's a summary of the simulation thus far. Believe me, I'm just as excited to see the end results as you all are. Here's how things looks through week 4:

Straight up wins (no spread): 33-13 or 71.7%
Picks against the spread: 29-17 or 63%
Over/Under picks: 31-15 or 67.4%

Week 4 was particularly exciting. I can only assume the Vegas oddsmakers were drunk when they set the lines. NFLSim successfully picked 5 underdogs to win with an average confidence of 58%.

These unlikely games were:
ATL over HOU (3 pt underdog)
DET over CHI (2.5)
OAK over MIA (3.5)
KC over SD (12.5) :-O
NYG over PHI (2.5)

These picks seem obvious with a season's worth of hindsight, but Vegas completely blew it. Score one, I mean five, for the Black Box.

That's all for now. I'll post another summary as soon as I get through another few weeks.