1) Merry Christmas
2) 5 Weeks above 50% ATS was pretty sweet, but it couldn't last forever, so going 6-7 Week 15 isn't terrible.
3) This is probably the last week of the regular season to be simulated. The Super Bowl will definitely be simulated.
Week 16 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Friday, December 25, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Week 15 Picks
The past 4 weeks have been pretty awesome. 51-13 (79.7%) SU; 43-17 (71.7%) ATS; 42-19 (68.9%) O/U.
That's right... 72% ATS over 60 games.
Here's the +60% accuracy for the past 4 weeks:
SU: 32-5 (86.5%)
ATS: 28-5 (84.8%)
O/U: 13-5 (72.2%)
(NBA Sim Capper is 18-6 (75%) ATS since 12/2)
***** If you've had a great couple weeks as well, please make a donation to keep this site free *****
Week 15 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 14 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 10 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 1 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Overall Results
That's right... 72% ATS over 60 games.
Here's the +60% accuracy for the past 4 weeks:
SU: 32-5 (86.5%)
ATS: 28-5 (84.8%)
O/U: 13-5 (72.2%)
(NBA Sim Capper is 18-6 (75%) ATS since 12/2)
***** If you've had a great couple weeks as well, please make a donation to keep this site free *****
Week 15 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 14 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 10 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 1 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Overall Results
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Week 14 Picks
Picks will be up over the next couple days... let's hope the streak continues.
---
Picks are up, fantasy projections are up, Pittsburgh is awful, happy Hanukkah, congrats Colt, Hook 'Em!
Week 14 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 10 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 1 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Overall Results
---
Picks are up, fantasy projections are up, Pittsburgh is awful, happy Hanukkah, congrats Colt, Hook 'Em!
Week 14 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 10 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 1 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Overall Results
Monday, December 7, 2009
Holy Crap Best Week Ever
14-2 (87.5%) Straight up, with 4 correct underdog picks (SEA line closed at +1)
14-2 (87.5%) ATS
12-4 (75.0%) O/U
Including the analysis posted in a Week 13 Picks comment predicting MIA win over NE by a last minute FG.
Season Results
Things really started to turn around when I made the 2nd adjustment to the scores, beginning in week 9.
Here are NFLSim's mind-blowing results from the past 3 weeks:
38-10 (79%) straight up
33-11 (75%) ATS; 24-4 (86%) when pick is at least 60% confident
32-14 (70%) O/U
14-2 (87.5%) ATS
12-4 (75.0%) O/U
Including the analysis posted in a Week 13 Picks comment predicting MIA win over NE by a last minute FG.
Season Results
Things really started to turn around when I made the 2nd adjustment to the scores, beginning in week 9.
Here are NFLSim's mind-blowing results from the past 3 weeks:
38-10 (79%) straight up
33-11 (75%) ATS; 24-4 (86%) when pick is at least 60% confident
32-14 (70%) O/U
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 19 | 13 | 68.4% |
| 60-69 | 18 | 15 | 83.3% |
| 70-79 | 11 | 10 | 90.9% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 48 | 38 | 79.2% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 16 | 9 | 56.3% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 19 | 86.4% |
| 70-79 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 44 | 33 | 75.0% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 33 | 23 | 69.7% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 8 | 66.7% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 46 | 32 | 69.6% |
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Results Spreadsheet
Finally on a good run. Hoping the mid-season lull is over.
Over the past 2 weeks, NFLSim is 24-8 (75%) straight up; 19-9 (68%) ATS; 20-10 (67%) O/U.
---------
Here are the results from the rest of the season:
2009 Season Results
I divided the season into 3 sets of 4 weeks, 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12. At week 5 I made an adjustment to the way the spread was calculated. At week 9 I rolled back that adjustment and started a new one. The new one seems to be working well.
On the bottom of the worksheet, you'll find some more info.
---------
Week 11 record:
Week 12 record:
Over the past 2 weeks, NFLSim is 24-8 (75%) straight up; 19-9 (68%) ATS; 20-10 (67%) O/U.
---------
Here are the results from the rest of the season:
2009 Season Results
I divided the season into 3 sets of 4 weeks, 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12. At week 5 I made an adjustment to the way the spread was calculated. At week 9 I rolled back that adjustment and started a new one. The new one seems to be working well.
On the bottom of the worksheet, you'll find some more info.
---------
Week 11 record:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5 | 83.33% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 5 | 62.50% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 12 | 75.00% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3 | 50.00% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| 70-79 | 3 | 3 | 100.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 7 | 70.00% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 11 | 73.33% |
Week 12 record:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2 | 33.33% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5 | 100.00% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 5 | 100.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 12 | 75.00% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6 | 75.00% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 9 | 64.29% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6 | 60.00% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 9 | 60.00% |
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Week 12 Picks
Happy Turkey Day!
It's nice getting enough time to set up the picks this week and breathe. The turkey and pumpkin pie don't hurt either.
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
It's nice getting enough time to set up the picks this week and breathe. The turkey and pumpkin pie don't hurt either.
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Week 10 Picks
Week 10 Picks, Stats, and Fantasy
All of the Fantasy Projections are up with the exceptions of the Sunday night and Monday night teams. They will be added this evening.
All of the Fantasy Projections are up with plenty of time to refine your lineup.
All of the Fantasy Projections are up with the exceptions of the Sunday night and Monday night teams. They will be added this evening.
All of the Fantasy Projections are up with plenty of time to refine your lineup.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Week 8 Picks
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
---
Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.
---
Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.
A match-up analysis to follow...
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
---
Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.
---
Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.
A match-up analysis to follow...
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Week 7 Results
I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
Week 6:
Week 7:
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
| STRAIGHT UP | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% | |
| ATS | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.85% | |
| O/U | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% | |
Week 6:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.14% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 8 | 61.54% |
Week 7:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6 | 66.67% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 10 | 76.92% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 6 | 46.15% |
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Week 7 Picks
Sorry about the delay, folks. You never realize how much the internet means to you until it's gone.
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
---
The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:
Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
Top 5 Rushing
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Kickers
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Defenses
1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints
---
Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
---
The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:
Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
Top 5 Rushing
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Kickers
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Defenses
1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints
---
Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.
Technical difficulties :(
Apparently the interweb is completely down in my area... ATT and Comcast, anyway. Check back tonight and tomorrow for all of the updates, results, predictions, etc.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Week 6 Picks
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
In response to an earlier comment asking about teaser (10 pt) accuracy:
10 pt teaser:
Using the top 3 teams from each week you would be: 15-0 (100%)
Using the top 5 teams from each week you would be: 21-4 (84%)
6, 7, 10 pt teasers:
Using a 10 pt teaser over all games this season you would approximately be: 61-14 (81.3%)
Using a 7 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 57-18 (76%)
Using a 6 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 56-19 (74.7%)
---
After a frustrating day without the interwebs, I finally got everything up. Picks, stats, fantasy projections, it's all up there. (6:15 pm) Matchup previews to follow.
---
You may have noticed that the Win % and Spread % haven't matched up for all of the games. I noticed that over the past few weeks, NFLSim has been way too generous to the away team underdog with respect to the spread. Now I'm adding confidence to the home favorite against the spread to compensate.
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
In response to an earlier comment asking about teaser (10 pt) accuracy:
10 pt teaser:
Using the top 3 teams from each week you would be: 15-0 (100%)
Using the top 5 teams from each week you would be: 21-4 (84%)
6, 7, 10 pt teasers:
Using a 10 pt teaser over all games this season you would approximately be: 61-14 (81.3%)
Using a 7 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 57-18 (76%)
Using a 6 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 56-19 (74.7%)
---
After a frustrating day without the interwebs, I finally got everything up. Picks, stats, fantasy projections, it's all up there. (6:15 pm) Matchup previews to follow.
---
You may have noticed that the Win % and Spread % haven't matched up for all of the games. I noticed that over the past few weeks, NFLSim has been way too generous to the away team underdog with respect to the spread. Now I'm adding confidence to the home favorite against the spread to compensate.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Week 5 Results
It was an OK week, nothing special. Straight up did well at 10-4 (71.4%). BAL and BUF losses were huge surprises, as was the SF loss against ATL, 45-10. Didn't see that one coming. ATS was in profit territory at 7-6 (53.9%). Totals had an off week at 6-6 (50.0%).
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
| Results | |||
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.9% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Week 5 Picks
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
---
Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
---
Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
---
Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 Results
Straight up games were awesome, 11-3 (78.6%); ATS games were not, 4-10 (28.6%); O/U had a good week, 8-6, (57.1%).
In my preview of the DAL-DEN game last week, I called for an erratic, turnover prone Romo - he had a pass over 50 yards, two more over 20 yards, no TDs, one interception, and two fumbles. Orton had a great game, averaging 8.4 yards per completion with two TDs and a QB rating of 117.5. The Cowboys' D-line only got to him 3 times. They held Barber to 41 yards. Looks like NFLSim was dead on with this game.
Season Results
In my preview of the DAL-DEN game last week, I called for an erratic, turnover prone Romo - he had a pass over 50 yards, two more over 20 yards, no TDs, one interception, and two fumbles. Orton had a great game, averaging 8.4 yards per completion with two TDs and a QB rating of 117.5. The Cowboys' D-line only got to him 3 times. They held Barber to 41 yards. Looks like NFLSim was dead on with this game.
Season Results
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| 70-79 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 11 | 78.6% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| TOTAL | 14 | 4 | 28.6% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.1% |
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Week 4 Picks
It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
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DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
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FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Week 3 Results
Added NFL and Fantasy Football news on the sidebar. You can switch between the two by clicking the links. Is it helpful or is it too 'busy'?
The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.
More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results
Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%
Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.
Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.
The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.
More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 7 | 43.75% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 8 | 50% |
Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%
Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.
Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Fair Moneyline Odds
Here's an excerpt from an earlier post describing what I call "Fair Moneyline Odds" (FMO):
Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.
NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.
In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.
On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.
In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.
*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80
Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.
NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.
In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.
On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.
In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.
*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Week 3 Picks
Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
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Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week 2 Results
NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 5 | 55.56% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3 | 50.00% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 10 | 66.67% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 4 | 44.44% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 5 | 33.33% |
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
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