First, I'll put up the scores. There are is an abundance of different lines this weekend, so I will post them all along with their odds (in decimal format of course. Bear in mind -110 = 1.91). Below the scores are some key stats.
The best bets have ***** next to them.
Super Bowl XLII
Average Score
Pittsburgh Steelers: 17.96
Arizona Cardinals: 19.60
Looks to be a low scoring match-up, dominated by the defense. This postseason, PIT has allowed 19 pts/game, ARI 20.7.
Winner
Pittsburgh Steelers: 44%, 1.44
Arizona Cardinals: 56%, 2.85 *****
This is a close one, but ARI comes out on top. Though 56% is not much more than a coin toss. Over the course of the 2008 season, games with confidence percentages between 50-59% are correct 64% of the time. In reality, 64% is a little more substantial, but it still could go either way.
Spread
Here's the fun part. Arizona is the underdog, so expect them to beat all of the lines, albeit with different %'s.
BET, confidence %, bet price. If *****, then it's a favorable bet.
ARI +7, 80%, 1.83 *****
ARI +1.5, 60%, 2.65 *****
ARI +4.5, 71%, 2.20 *****
ARI +9.5, 82%, 1.67 *****
ARI +10.5, 85%, 1.53 *****
ARI +13.5, 89%, 1.42 *****
Arizona probably won't lose by at least 2 touchdowns.
Over/Under
NFLSim has been pretty accurate when predicting totals with confidence over 60%: 37-22, or 63%. Let's see what we've got.
First lets look at Team Totals, i.e. will Arizona score more or less than 20 points?
ARI UNDER 20, 58%, 1.83 *****
PIT UNDER 26.5, 81%, 1.83 *****
Now totals:
UNDER 39.5, 58%, 3.00 *****
UNDER 42.5, 67%, 2.60 *****
UNDER 45.5, 75%, 2.00 *****
UNDER 50.5, 85%, 1.56 *****
UNDER 53.5, 89%, 1.40 *****
Fun/Prop Bets
Here's the per game breakdown of scoring plays.
| FG | Rush | Pass | |
| PIT | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| ARI | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
PIT is going to dominate the rush game while ARI has the passing advantage. PIT's defense is going to hold ARI to a lot of FGs.
The first score of the game by any team:
TD, 65%, 1.57 *****
FG, 35%, 2.35
Here is the per game play breakdown.
| Rush | Pass | Total | |
| PIT | 32.6 | 26.2 | 58.8 |
| ARI | 20.4 | 31.2 | 51.7 |
| Total | 53.1 | 57.4 | 110.5 |
First offensive play by any team:
PASS, 52%, 1.91
RUSH, 48%, 1.77
First penalty against:
PIT, 47%, 1.87
ARI, 53%, 1.80
Total Pass Completions:
Kurt Warner
OVER 22.5, 27%, 1.91
UNDER 22.5, 73%, 1.77 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 17.5, 38%, 1.80
UNDER 17.5, 62%, 1.87 *****
Total Yards:
Kurt Warner
OVER 255.5, 23%, 1.83
UNDER 255.5, 77%, 1.83 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 245.5, 14%, 1.91
UNDER 245.5, 86%, 1.77 *****
Total Team Rushing Yards:
Arizona
OVER 76.5, 24%, 1.83
UNDER 76.5, 76%, 1.83 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 109.5, 42%, 1.77
UNDER 109.5, 58%, 1.91 *****
Total Sacks:
Arizona
OVER 2.5, 43%, 1.77
UNDER 2.5, 57%, 1.91 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 2.5, 41%, 1.83
UNDER 2.5, 59%, 1.83 *****
Most Passing Yards:
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
WARNER, 65%, 1.63 *****
ROETHLISBERGER, 35%, 2.20
Most Rushing Yards:
Edgerrin James vs. Willie Parker
JAMES, 19%, 3.50
PARKER, 81%, 1.29 *****
