Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
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More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
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Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.
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Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.
A match-up analysis to follow...
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Week 7 Results
I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
Week 6:
Week 7:
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
| STRAIGHT UP | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% | |
| ATS | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.85% | |
| O/U | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% | |
Week 6:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.14% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 8 | 61.54% |
Week 7:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6 | 66.67% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 10 | 76.92% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 6 | 46.15% |
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Week 7 Picks
Sorry about the delay, folks. You never realize how much the internet means to you until it's gone.
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
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It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
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The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:
Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
Top 5 Rushing
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Kickers
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Defenses
1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints
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Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
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It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
---
The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:
Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
Top 5 Rushing
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Kickers
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Defenses
1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints
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Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.
Technical difficulties :(
Apparently the interweb is completely down in my area... ATT and Comcast, anyway. Check back tonight and tomorrow for all of the updates, results, predictions, etc.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Week 6 Picks
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
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In response to an earlier comment asking about teaser (10 pt) accuracy:
10 pt teaser:
Using the top 3 teams from each week you would be: 15-0 (100%)
Using the top 5 teams from each week you would be: 21-4 (84%)
6, 7, 10 pt teasers:
Using a 10 pt teaser over all games this season you would approximately be: 61-14 (81.3%)
Using a 7 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 57-18 (76%)
Using a 6 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 56-19 (74.7%)
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After a frustrating day without the interwebs, I finally got everything up. Picks, stats, fantasy projections, it's all up there. (6:15 pm) Matchup previews to follow.
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You may have noticed that the Win % and Spread % haven't matched up for all of the games. I noticed that over the past few weeks, NFLSim has been way too generous to the away team underdog with respect to the spread. Now I'm adding confidence to the home favorite against the spread to compensate.
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
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In response to an earlier comment asking about teaser (10 pt) accuracy:
10 pt teaser:
Using the top 3 teams from each week you would be: 15-0 (100%)
Using the top 5 teams from each week you would be: 21-4 (84%)
6, 7, 10 pt teasers:
Using a 10 pt teaser over all games this season you would approximately be: 61-14 (81.3%)
Using a 7 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 57-18 (76%)
Using a 6 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 56-19 (74.7%)
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After a frustrating day without the interwebs, I finally got everything up. Picks, stats, fantasy projections, it's all up there. (6:15 pm) Matchup previews to follow.
---
You may have noticed that the Win % and Spread % haven't matched up for all of the games. I noticed that over the past few weeks, NFLSim has been way too generous to the away team underdog with respect to the spread. Now I'm adding confidence to the home favorite against the spread to compensate.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Week 5 Results
It was an OK week, nothing special. Straight up did well at 10-4 (71.4%). BAL and BUF losses were huge surprises, as was the SF loss against ATL, 45-10. Didn't see that one coming. ATS was in profit territory at 7-6 (53.9%). Totals had an off week at 6-6 (50.0%).
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
| Results | |||
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.9% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Week 5 Picks
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
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***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 Results
Straight up games were awesome, 11-3 (78.6%); ATS games were not, 4-10 (28.6%); O/U had a good week, 8-6, (57.1%).
In my preview of the DAL-DEN game last week, I called for an erratic, turnover prone Romo - he had a pass over 50 yards, two more over 20 yards, no TDs, one interception, and two fumbles. Orton had a great game, averaging 8.4 yards per completion with two TDs and a QB rating of 117.5. The Cowboys' D-line only got to him 3 times. They held Barber to 41 yards. Looks like NFLSim was dead on with this game.
Season Results
In my preview of the DAL-DEN game last week, I called for an erratic, turnover prone Romo - he had a pass over 50 yards, two more over 20 yards, no TDs, one interception, and two fumbles. Orton had a great game, averaging 8.4 yards per completion with two TDs and a QB rating of 117.5. The Cowboys' D-line only got to him 3 times. They held Barber to 41 yards. Looks like NFLSim was dead on with this game.
Season Results
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| 70-79 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 11 | 78.6% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| TOTAL | 14 | 4 | 28.6% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.1% |
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