Saturday, October 2, 2010

Week 4 Picks

This week's spreadsheet:

Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Earlier spreadsheets:
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy

Friday, October 1, 2010

Technical Difficulties

Having some technical difficulties x_x

Picks will definitely be up before the games.

Check out these sweet lists of NFL records in the meantime:
All Time Individual Records
All Time Team Records

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

OK, here we go, NFL Sim Capper's first week of the season...

I got the spreads at the beginning of the week so they may be off by a point. Next week's sheet will include individual game matchups along with in-depth spread analysis

All simulations improve as more data becomes available.  One week of stats isn't a lot of data to go off of so the first couple weeks of picks might be erratic. That being said, historically NFLSim tends to do well before the odds makers figure out which teams they like, particularly when picking underdogs straight up.

Contents of the spreadsheet:
"Picks": A summary of this week's games. Matchups with odds are posted on the far left; the column 'Score' contains the average scores from simulations. 'Winner' lists the predicted winner of the game and the % of simulations that the team won. 'Spread' is the winner against the spread and the % of simulation that the team beat the spread. 'Total' is the over/under prediction with the % of simulations that maintained that outcome. 'Fair Moneyline Odds' is the minimum payout that is required to make a straight up bet on the predicted favorite profitable given the % calculated by NFLSim. 'Results' is updated at the end of the week; it shows the number of teams in each prediction confidence interval (50-59%, 60-69%,...).

"Sim Stats": A collection of stats from this week's simulations.

"Fantasy Projections": Fantasy scores based on the simulated stats. There are only team stats, no individual stats. So if you see NE with 19.1 Passing points it may be a good idea to start Tom Brady over a QB whose team has fewer points. Whereas if you have Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco (you lucky bastard), and you could only chose one, and NE has 19.1 pts and CIN has 12.5 pts, Randy Moss is a better play. Likewise for Rushing and Kicking.

"Matchup": Normally every game will have its own page dedicated to the matchup's scores, stats, and spread analysis.

As always, email me at simcapper@gmail.com with all of your questions.

Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy

Thursday, September 9, 2010

NFL Sim Capper 2010

After much deliberation and procrastination I've decided to stick around for another season. I have a pretty demanding work schedule so it's yet to be seen which services I'll be able to provide, but after a couple of weeks things should be up and running.

If you've been to this site before, welcome back!

If you're new, feel free to look around ... check out a typical post from last season:

WEEK 15 PICKS, STATS & FANTASY

Every week I post a spreadsheet with Straight Up, ATS, and O/U picks, individual matchup analyses, stats generated by NFLSim, and fantasy recommendations based on those stats.

NFLSim needs some initial stats to run its simulations so there won't be any picks week 1. Things get rolling starting week 2 so check back in a few days!

As always, feel free to shoot me an email with any questions/comments.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper
simcapper@gmail.com

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

NEW! From Sim Capper

Alpha Capper Using prediction markets and proprietary algorithms, Alpha Capper predicts the stock market. It's doing damn well, so check it out!

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Results and Analysis of Simulated vs. Actual Stats Coming soon

Check back in the next few days to see the results of the entire season.

In addition, I'm going to post a comparison of the simulated and actual stats. I haven't seen it yet, so I have no idea what to expect.

Also, many thanks to Yoshi for his awesome contribution to Sim Capper. See that sweet logo up top? That's his creation. There's another one that's just as great over at nbablackbox.blogspot.com.

Questions, comments?

Jonathan
simcapper@gmail.com

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

SUPER BOWL XLIV

***SUPER BOWL XLIV***
(Complete with Prop Bets)

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Playoffs, Round 3

Round 2 went great at 4-0 ATS and 3-1 O/U. Here's round 3:


Conference Playoffs

NFC Championship


Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

       It's not much of a surprise that the NFC has come down to the Saints and Vikings. The Saints dominated nearly the entire season, starting 13-0 while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game in that period, by far the greatest differential in the League. Their stellar offense, however, is complemented by a not-so-stellar defense: in most categories, New Orleans is simply average. They are 26th in pass yards allowed per game and 21st in rush yards allowed, along with 20th in points allowed. Though the defense as a whole was far from setting any records, Darren Sharper did set an NFL record for most interception yardage in a season, 376, accompanied by 3 int TD's, including a 99 yard pick-6 in week 4 against the Jets.


Love him or hate him, Brett Favre is back for another NFC Championship game, pretty in purple. The Cheeseheads can't be too happy about this one. Let's be honest - aside from a staggeringly old Brett Favre, playing at the top of his game, this is an entirely mediocre team. I can't sugarcoat this one, MIN is 8th in passing yards per game, 13th in rush yards per game. Though, they're 2nd in points scored per game, where it counts. The defense is 30th in total number of tackles, 1st in sacks, 26th in INTs, 5th in fumble recoveries, and 10th in points allowed per game.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between two quarterbacks which will rely very little on their supporting teams. The quarterback that plays better will win the game. And this is going to be a hell of a QB matchup. From week 1, Drew Brees has been a standout. Brees was 1st in QB Rating, TDs, and completion percentage; 2nd in yards per game; 3rd in yards per attempt. He set an NFL record for completion percentage, 70.6% and - wait for it... he actually had a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Patriots. That's amazing.

Old Man Favre has done a great job carrying the Vikings, playing like his days as a young buck in the Packers' Super Bowls. One can't appreciate enough what he's done in Minnesota. Completion %: 68.4*. Yards: 4202. Yds/pass: 7.9*. TDs: 33. INT: 7*. Passer Rating: 107.2*. He throws 4.7 TDs for every 1 INT.

*Career best

NFLSim's Take:

Rushing

Their rushing games are projected to be fairly even. Adrian Peterson has struggled a bit over the past few weeks, and unfortunately, Chester Taylor isn't going to be much help. Likewise, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell aren't expected to have a breakout day. Minnesota and New Orleans both rush 26.9 times for 106.2 and 112.5 yards, respectively. That averages to 4.0 and 4.2 yards per carry. Not much difference there. MIN averages 0.8 TD, NO averages 1.2. That doesn't sound like a lot, but a few points can make a big difference. The probability of a fumble is just about the same for both teams.


Passing
NFLSim gives the passing edge to New Orleans, giving them the (slight) advantage in all categories. Drew Brees is projected to complete 19.2 of 28.6, 67.2%, for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Average yards per pass of 8.2. A great passer rating of 107. Brett Favre completes 19.1 of 30.3, 63.1%, for 225 yards and 1.7 TD. Also a great passer rating of 93.2. Again, there is a slight TD difference of 0.4 TDs.


Overall
The rushing games will be close, but the advantage goes to NO. The passing games will also be close, but again, the advantage goes to NO. However, ultimately, the QBs will decide. If Favre has the better game, MIN wins, if Brees has the better game NO wins.


NFLSim says: NO wins, 60%; NO -3.5, 57%; Under 53, 79%



Saturday, January 16, 2010

Playoffs, Round 2

So the first round didn't go so well. Maybe we'll have more luck the second time around.

Divisional Playoffs

Friday, January 8, 2010

Wildcard Round

The playoffs are finally here. Let's see how NFLSim handles them.

Wildcard, Round 1

Full Playoff / Super Bowl Simulation

Sorry about the late start, there's more work involved with playoffs + earlier games.


This is a simulation of the entire playoffs and Super Bowl. Round 1 was simulated, the winners went onto round 2. Round 2 was simulated, the winners went onto 3, etc. Because this is just a winners bracket, there are no ATS and O/U predictions. ATS and O/U WILL be included in the predictions of individual rounds when the lines go up.

Dunno about you, but I'm pretty excited to see how the sim plays out compared to reality.


Simulated Post Season (Full Projection)


Individual round simulations will continue as well.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Playoff / Super Bowl Coverage

Sim Capper will offer a full post season simulation in advance (from start to Super Bowl) as well as weekly simulations. Everything will be posted tomorrow!