NFL Sim Capper

Week 7

2010-10-24T07:45:00.000-05:00

Sorry, this is the last week with no picks :(

Week 6

2010-10-17T10:04:00.001-05:00

Sorry, no picks this week... :(

Week 5

2010-10-10T07:55:00.000-05:00

Better late than never...

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Week 4 Picks

2010-10-02T07:58:00.001-05:00

This week's spreadsheet:

Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Earlier spreadsheets:
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy

Technical Difficulties

2010-10-01T06:51:00.000-05:00

Having some technical difficulties x_x

Picks will definitely be up before the games.

Check out these sweet lists of NFL records in the meantime:
All Time Individual Records
All Time Team Records

Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

2010-09-24T21:16:00.001-05:00

Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy

Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

2010-09-18T18:00:00.004-05:00

OK, here we go, NFL Sim Capper's first week of the season...

I got the spreads at the beginning of the week so they may be off by a point. Next week's sheet will include individual game matchups along with in-depth spread analysis

All simulations improve as more data becomes available. One week of stats isn't a lot of data to go off of so the first couple weeks of picks might be erratic. That being said, historically NFLSim tends to do well before the odds makers figure out which teams they like, particularly when picking underdogs straight up.

Contents of the spreadsheet:
"Picks": A summary of this week's games. Matchups with odds are posted on the far left; the column 'Score' contains the average scores from simulations. 'Winner' lists the predicted winner of the game and the % of simulations that the team won. 'Spread' is the winner against the spread and the % of simulation that the team beat the spread. 'Total' is the over/under prediction with the % of simulations that maintained that outcome. 'Fair Moneyline Odds' is the minimum payout that is required to make a straight up bet on the predicted favorite profitable given the % calculated by NFLSim. 'Results' is updated at the end of the week; it shows the number of teams in each prediction confidence interval (50-59%, 60-69%,...).

"Sim Stats": A collection of stats from this week's simulations.

"Fantasy Projections": Fantasy scores based on the simulated stats. There are only team stats, no individual stats. So if you see NE with 19.1 Passing points it may be a good idea to start Tom Brady over a QB whose team has fewer points. Whereas if you have Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco (you lucky bastard), and you could only chose one, and NE has 19.1 pts and CIN has 12.5 pts, Randy Moss is a better play. Likewise for Rushing and Kicking.

"Matchup": Normally every game will have its own page dedicated to the matchup's scores, stats, and spread analysis.

As always, email me at simcapper@gmail.com with all of your questions.

Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy

NFL Sim Capper 2010

2010-09-09T00:05:00.001-05:00

After much deliberation and procrastination I've decided to stick around for another season. I have a pretty demanding work schedule so it's yet to be seen which services I'll be able to provide, but after a couple of weeks things should be up and running.

If you've been to this site before, welcome back!

If you're new, feel free to look around ... check out a typical post from last season:

WEEK 15 PICKS, STATS & FANTASY

Every week I post a spreadsheet with Straight Up, ATS, and O/U picks, individual matchup analyses, stats generated by NFLSim, and fantasy recommendations based on those stats.

NFLSim needs some initial stats to run its simulations so there won't be any picks week 1. Things get rolling starting week 2 so check back in a few days!

As always, feel free to shoot me an email with any questions/comments.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper
simcapper@gmail.com

NEW! From Sim Capper

2010-06-09T10:49:00.001-05:00

Alpha Capper Using prediction markets and proprietary algorithms, Alpha Capper predicts the stock market. It's doing damn well, so check it out!

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Results and Analysis of Simulated vs. Actual Stats Coming soon

2010-02-13T13:43:00.000-06:00

Check back in the next few days to see the results of the entire season.

In addition, I'm going to post a comparison of the simulated and actual stats. I haven't seen it yet, so I have no idea what to expect.

Also, many thanks to Yoshi for his awesome contribution to Sim Capper. See that sweet logo up top? That's his creation. There's another one that's just as great over at nbablackbox.blogspot.com.

Questions, comments?

Jonathan
simcapper@gmail.com

SUPER BOWL XLIV

2010-02-03T20:12:00.001-06:00

***SUPER BOWL XLIV***
(Complete with Prop Bets)

Playoffs, Round 3

2010-01-21T21:31:00.004-06:00

Round 2 went great at 4-0 ATS and 3-1 O/U. Here's round 3:

Conference Playoffs

NFC Championship

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

It's not much of a surprise that the NFC has come down to the Saints and Vikings. The Saints dominated nearly the entire season, starting 13-0 while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game in that period, by far the greatest differential in the League. Their stellar offense, however, is complemented by a not-so-stellar defense: in most categories, New Orleans is simply average. They are 26th in pass yards allowed per game and 21st in rush yards allowed, along with 20th in points allowed. Though the defense as a whole was far from setting any records, Darren Sharper did set an NFL record for most interception yardage in a season, 376, accompanied by 3 int TD's, including a 99 yard pick-6 in week 4 against the Jets.

Love him or hate him, Brett Favre is back for another NFC Championship game, pretty in purple. The Cheeseheads can't be too happy about this one. Let's be honest - aside from a staggeringly old Brett Favre, playing at the top of his game, this is an entirely mediocre team. I can't sugarcoat this one, MIN is 8th in passing yards per game, 13th in rush yards per game. Though, they're 2nd in points scored per game, where it counts. The defense is 30th in total number of tackles, 1st in sacks, 26th in INTs, 5th in fumble recoveries, and 10th in points allowed per game.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between two quarterbacks which will rely very little on their supporting teams. The quarterback that plays better will win the game. And this is going to be a hell of a QB matchup. From week 1, Drew Brees has been a standout. Brees was 1st in QB Rating, TDs, and completion percentage; 2nd in yards per game; 3rd in yards per attempt. He set an NFL record for completion percentage, 70.6% and - wait for it... he actually had a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Patriots. That's amazing.

Old Man Favre has done a great job carrying the Vikings, playing like his days as a young buck in the Packers' Super Bowls. One can't appreciate enough what he's done in Minnesota. Completion %: 68.4*. Yards: 4202. Yds/pass: 7.9*. TDs: 33. INT: 7*. Passer Rating: 107.2*. He throws 4.7 TDs for every 1 INT.

*Career best

NFLSim's Take:

Rushing

Their rushing games are projected to be fairly even. Adrian Peterson has struggled a bit over the past few weeks, and unfortunately, Chester Taylor isn't going to be much help. Likewise, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell aren't expected to have a breakout day. Minnesota and New Orleans both rush 26.9 times for 106.2 and 112.5 yards, respectively. That averages to 4.0 and 4.2 yards per carry. Not much difference there. MIN averages 0.8 TD, NO averages 1.2. That doesn't sound like a lot, but a few points can make a big difference. The probability of a fumble is just about the same for both teams.

Passing
NFLSim gives the passing edge to New Orleans, giving them the (slight) advantage in all categories. Drew Brees is projected to complete 19.2 of 28.6, 67.2%, for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Average yards per pass of 8.2. A great passer rating of 107. Brett Favre completes 19.1 of 30.3, 63.1%, for 225 yards and 1.7 TD. Also a great passer rating of 93.2. Again, there is a slight TD difference of 0.4 TDs.

Overall
The rushing games will be close, but the advantage goes to NO. The passing games will also be close, but again, the advantage goes to NO. However, ultimately, the QBs will decide. If Favre has the better game, MIN wins, if Brees has the better game NO wins.

NFLSim says: NO wins, 60%; NO -3.5, 57%; Under 53, 79%

Playoffs, Round 2

2010-01-16T11:38:00.002-06:00

So the first round didn't go so well. Maybe we'll have more luck the second time around.

Divisional Playoffs

Wildcard Round

2010-01-08T23:21:00.000-06:00

The playoffs are finally here. Let's see how NFLSim handles them.

Wildcard, Round 1

Full Playoff / Super Bowl Simulation

2010-01-08T22:40:00.006-06:00

Sorry about the late start, there's more work involved with playoffs + earlier games.

This is a simulation of the entire playoffs and Super Bowl. Round 1 was simulated, the winners went onto round 2. Round 2 was simulated, the winners went onto 3, etc. Because this is just a winners bracket, there are no ATS and O/U predictions. ATS and O/U WILL be included in the predictions of individual rounds when the lines go up.

Dunno about you, but I'm pretty excited to see how the sim plays out compared to reality.

Simulated Post Season (Full Projection)

Individual round simulations will continue as well.

Playoff / Super Bowl Coverage

2010-01-07T11:21:00.000-06:00

Sim Capper will offer a full post season simulation in advance (from start to Super Bowl) as well as weekly simulations. Everything will be posted tomorrow!

Week 16 Picks

2009-12-25T10:11:00.001-06:00

1) Merry Christmas
2) 5 Weeks above 50% ATS was pretty sweet, but it couldn't last forever, so going 6-7 Week 15 isn't terrible.
3) This is probably the last week of the regular season to be simulated. The Super Bowl will definitely be simulated.

Week 16 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Week 15 Picks

2009-12-16T19:57:00.004-06:00

The past 4 weeks have been pretty awesome. 51-13 (79.7%) SU; 43-17 (71.7%) ATS; 42-19 (68.9%) O/U.

That's right... 72% ATS over 60 games.

Here's the +60% accuracy for the past 4 weeks:
SU: 32-5 (86.5%)
ATS: 28-5 (84.8%)
O/U: 13-5 (72.2%)

(NBA Sim Capper is 18-6 (75%) ATS since 12/2)

***** If you've had a great couple weeks as well, please make a donation to keep this site free *****

Week 15 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 14 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 10 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 1 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Overall Results

Week 14 Picks

2009-12-09T23:16:00.005-06:00

Holy Crap Best Week Ever

2009-12-07T23:08:00.011-06:00

14-2 (87.5%) Straight up, with 4 correct underdog picks (SEA line closed at +1)
14-2 (87.5%) ATS
12-4 (75.0%) O/U

Including the analysis posted in a Week 13 Picks comment predicting MIA win over NE by a last minute FG.

Season Results

Things really started to turn around when I made the 2nd adjustment to the scores, beginning in week 9.
Here are NFLSim's mind-blowing results from the past 3 weeks:

38-10 (79%) straight up
33-11 (75%) ATS; 24-4 (86%) when pick is at least 60% confident
32-14 (70%) O/U

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	19	13	68.4%
60-69	18	15	83.3%
70-79	11	10	90.9%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	48	38	79.2%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	16	9	56.3%
60-69	22	19	86.4%
70-79	6	5	83.3%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	44	33	75.0%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	33	23	69.7%
60-69	12	8	66.7%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	46	32	69.6%

Week 13 Picks

2009-12-03T10:10:00.002-06:00

Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Results Spreadsheet

2009-12-03T10:09:00.002-06:00

Finally on a good run. Hoping the mid-season lull is over.

Over the past 2 weeks, NFLSim is 24-8 (75%) straight up; 19-9 (68%) ATS; 20-10 (67%) O/U.
---------
Here are the results from the rest of the season:
2009 Season Results

I divided the season into 3 sets of 4 weeks, 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12. At week 5 I made an adjustment to the way the spread was calculated. At week 9 I rolled back that adjustment and started a new one. The new one seems to be working well.

On the bottom of the worksheet, you'll find some more info.

---------
Week 11 record:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	6	5	83.33%
60-69	8	5	62.50%
70-79	2	2	100.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	12	75.00%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	6	3	50.00%
60-69	5	4	80.00%
70-79	3	3	100.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	7	70.00%
60-69	5	4	80.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	11	73.33%

Week 12 record:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	6	2	33.33%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	5	5	100.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	12	75.00%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	2	50.00%
60-69	8	6	75.00%
70-79	2	1	50.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	9	64.29%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60.00%
60-69	4	2	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	9	60.00%

Week 12 Picks

2009-11-25T19:14:00.002-06:00

Happy Turkey Day!

It's nice getting enough time to set up the picks this week and breathe. The turkey and pumpkin pie don't hurt either.

Week 12 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Week 11 Picks

2009-11-19T14:25:00.000-06:00

Week 11 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Week 10 Picks

2009-11-12T16:11:00.005-06:00

Week 10 Picks, Stats, and Fantasy

All of the Fantasy Projections are up with the exceptions of the Sunday night and Monday night teams. They will be added this evening.

All of the Fantasy Projections are up with plenty of time to refine your lineup.

Week 9 Picks

2009-11-05T13:01:00.000-06:00

Coming soon...

Week 9 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Week 8 Picks

2009-10-28T21:47:00.007-05:00

Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

---
More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
---
Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.

---
Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.

A match-up analysis to follow...

Week 7 Results

2009-10-27T10:17:00.007-05:00

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results:

Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!

Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.

Week 7 Picks

2009-10-22T19:31:00.013-05:00

Sorry about the delay, folks. You never realize how much the internet means to you until it's gone.

Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

---
It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
---
The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:

Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots

Top 5 Rushing

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders

Top 5 Kickers

1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders

Top 5 Defenses

1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints

---
Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.

Technical difficulties :(

2009-10-22T13:04:00.000-05:00

Apparently the interweb is completely down in my area... ATT and Comcast, anyway. Check back tonight and tomorrow for all of the updates, results, predictions, etc.

Week 6 Picks

2009-10-14T17:47:00.006-05:00

Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

---
In response to an earlier comment asking about teaser (10 pt) accuracy:

10 pt teaser:
Using the top 3 teams from each week you would be: 15-0 (100%)
Using the top 5 teams from each week you would be: 21-4 (84%)
6, 7, 10 pt teasers:
Using a 10 pt teaser over all games this season you would approximately be: 61-14 (81.3%)
Using a 7 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 57-18 (76%)
Using a 6 pt teaser over all games this season you would approx. be: 56-19 (74.7%)
---
After a frustrating day without the interwebs, I finally got everything up. Picks, stats, fantasy projections, it's all up there. (6:15 pm) Matchup previews to follow.

---
You may have noticed that the Win % and Spread % haven't matched up for all of the games. I noticed that over the past few weeks, NFLSim has been way too generous to the away team underdog with respect to the spread. Now I'm adding confidence to the home favorite against the spread to compensate.

Week 5 Results

2009-10-13T23:32:00.002-05:00

It was an OK week, nothing special. Straight up did well at 10-4 (71.4%). BAL and BUF losses were huge surprises, as was the SF loss against ATL, 45-10. Didn't see that one coming. ATS was in profit territory at 7-6 (53.9%). Totals had an off week at 6-6 (50.0%).

Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.

Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.

NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.

This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.

	Results
STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100.0%
60-69	7	5	71.4%
70-79	3	1	33.3%
80-89	2	2	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.4%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50.0%
60-69	3	2	66.7%
70-79	1	0	0.0%
80-89	1	1	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.9%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60.0%
60-69	4	1	25.0%
70-79	1	1	100.0%
80-89	2	1	50.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50.0%

Week 5 Picks

2009-10-07T16:01:00.013-05:00

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.

***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***

---
Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
---
Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
---

Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.

Week 4 Results

2009-10-06T17:13:00.003-05:00

Straight up games were awesome, 11-3 (78.6%); ATS games were not, 4-10 (28.6%); O/U had a good week, 8-6, (57.1%).

In my preview of the DAL-DEN game last week, I called for an erratic, turnover prone Romo - he had a pass over 50 yards, two more over 20 yards, no TDs, one interception, and two fumbles. Orton had a great game, averaging 8.4 yards per completion with two TDs and a QB rating of 117.5. The Cowboys' D-line only got to him 3 times. They held Barber to 41 yards. Looks like NFLSim was dead on with this game.

Season Results

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	2	50.0%
60-69	5	4	80.0%
70-79	4	4	100.0%
80-89	1	1	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	11	78.6%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	7	3	42.9%
60-69	5	0	0.0%
70-79	1	0	0.0%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	1	1	100.0%
TOTAL	14	4	28.6%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	7	63.6%
60-69	1	1	100.0%
70-79	2	0	0.0%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.1%

Week 4 Picks

2009-09-30T19:46:00.014-05:00

It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers

Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5

The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.

I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.

---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!

The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.

Week 3 Results

2009-09-29T21:15:00.008-05:00

Added NFL and Fantasy Football news on the sidebar. You can switch between the two by clicking the links. Is it helpful or is it too 'busy'?

The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.

More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	3	2	66.67%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	9	56.25%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	6	3	50%
70-79	5	1	20%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	7	43.75%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	2	1	50%
70-79	5	3	60%
80-89	1	0	0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	8	50%

Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%

Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.

Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.

Fair Moneyline Odds

2009-09-27T11:00:00.000-05:00

Here's an excerpt from an earlier post describing what I call "Fair Moneyline Odds" (FMO):

Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.

NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.

In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.

On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.

In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.

*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80

Week 3 Picks

2009-09-23T12:19:00.036-05:00

Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:

Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.

***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed

Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.

7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:

Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)

Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)

Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)

Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...

Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.

Week 2 Results

2009-09-22T15:52:00.003-05:00

NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.

The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.

That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.

More analysis under the numbers...

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	5	55.56%
60-69	5	3	60.00%
70-79	1	0	0.00%
80-89	1	1	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	9	56.25%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	6	3	50.00%
60-69	4	3	75.00%
70-79	5	4	80.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	10	66.67%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	4	44.44%
60-69	5	1	20.00%
70-79	1	0	0.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	5	33.33%

Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...

Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.

Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!

Week 2 Picks

2009-09-15T17:13:00.012-05:00

Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...

Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.

Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
---

The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.

---

Most of the stats are up.

CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.

---

Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.

There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.

Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...

Week 1 Results

2009-09-15T07:16:00.002-05:00

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%

ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%

O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!

That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.

Week 1 Picks

2009-09-10T21:21:00.023-05:00

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks

Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

Update 2

2009-09-09T11:56:00.001-05:00

Black Box Sports is now Sim Capper.

All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.

The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Update

2009-09-05T13:17:00.011-05:00

To clear up any confusion:

The new website will be www.simcapper.com when I get around to setting it up.

Until then, everything will continue to be posted here at nflblackbox.blogspot.com. So keep coming to the NFL Black Box blog until the website opens up.

The first predictions will be up on this site a few days before week 2.

Are you ready for some football???

The Sim Capper (Black Box Sports)

Black Box Sports is now The Sim Capper

2009-09-02T16:56:00.005-05:00

Congratulations Jeff P. The Sim Capper is the winner!

Runners up: Jared R. - Cognition Sports; Mike R. - Neural Net Bets

Thanks for all the great submissions, I appreciate your help!

The new website will be www.simcapper.com. Short and sweet. The website isn't set up yet, but expect its launch in a few days. Otherwise, everything will remain the same. Same great picks, same great rankings, same great content, awesome new name.

Any feedback?

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Black Box Sports Name Change Contest (Win $50)

2009-08-10T13:57:00.006-05:00

Hi all,

I think it may be time to move to a real website. Unfortunately, blackboxsports.com is already taken ... though they haven't updated their site in over a year (as far as I can tell) ... what a waste of a great name.

Remember, there are no plans to charge for the use of my Black Box Sports. NFL and NBA Black Box will remain totally free! I will always be available to answer your questions and I will try my damnedest to update the site every week in a timely fashion.

I'm asking you fine gents (any ladies out there?) to think of a new name for Black Box Sports. I'm one of the (un)lucky 80% of unemployed college grads, so I can't offer a huge prize to the winner. How does ~~$20~~ $50 sound? ~~$20~~ $50 goes to the winner of the Black Box Sports name change contest.

The goal is to think of an edgy name that (prefferably) alludes to computers/simulations and appeals to your demographic. When people hear your name, they're curious, they have to check out the site, and once they do, they're so intrigued by the idea of an accurate football simulation that they're back next week just to see how it did.

Submit your entry as a comment in this post or send it to blackboxsports@gmail.com. You can submit as many names as you want. The more names you submit, the better your chance to win. It's free to enter and you can win ~~$20~~ $50. If you post it, please post using a Google or Aim account or with your email or something so I can contact you if you win. And be sure that "yourentry".com is available.

The Contest: Submit a new name for Black Box Sports
The Prize: ~~$20~~ $50 via Paypal
The Deadline: Midnight of August 31, 2009
Announcement of the Winner: September 1, 2009

2008 Season Results

2009-08-09T16:25:00.016-05:00

CHECK OUT THE POST ABOVE, BLACK BOX NAME CHANGE CONTEST (win ~~$20~~ $50, free to enter, just submit a new name!)

These results from last year, excluding weeks 1 and 2, which there wasn't enough data for. It's broken into 3 sections: Straight up Winner, Against the Spread, and Over/Under. I broke down the approximately 200 games into 5 intervals, each interval representing a confidence spread of 10%. When you see 96 games in the 50-59% interval, that means of the 200+- games NFLSim picked, 96 games fell in the confidence interval of 50-59%. Likewise, 70 games had winners predicted as 60-69% favorites (in the straight-up category). To the left of the 'Games' column is the 'Correct' column. That is simply the number of NFLSim's correct picks in that interval. Accuracy is the percentage of time that NFLSim correctly picked a game in that interval.

1. Straight up Winner
NFLSim was absolutely phenomenal when it came to picking the winner. At first glance, you see the season record at 139-70 (66.5%). That's nothing special until you take a deeper look at the statistics.

Straight-up	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59%	61	96	63.5%
	60-69	45	70	64.3
	70-79	27	36	75
	80-89	4	5	8
	90-100	2	2	1
	Total	139	209	66.5

First, lets take a look at the 'expected number of wins' for each interval. In the 50-59% interval, it can be expected that after a large number of games, 55% of those games should be picked correctly(the mid-point of the 50's). In the 60-69% interval, 65% should be picked correctly, and so on. The closer NFLSim's number of correct picks is to the expected number of correct picks, the better NFLSim approximates reality. This is very important, because if you know the exact probability of a team winning, you automatically know if Vegas' payout makes for a good bet or a bad bet. The closer that the predicted probability is to the actual probability, the smarter your bets are. The smarter your bets, the more $ you make! (This is the basis for the Bet Optimization Algorithm.... which is new and much improved this year.)

If we take a look at the first interval, 50-59%, 96 games took place. In theory, you should expect that 55% of those teams predicted to win should actually win. 55% of 96 games, 55% * 96, equals an expected number of wins of 53. NFLSim actually picked 61 winners, so it beat the expected number of wins by 8. This is great because it picked more winners than it was supposed to, but it was pretty far from the expected number of wins. From 60% on is where it gets very, very interesting. NFLSim reaches near theoretical perfection - the probability given by NFLSim is the actual probability that the team will win!!! If anyone has seen this feat achieved by anyone else please let me know.

Here is a table of expected numbers of wins:

	Expected Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	53	61
60-69	46	45
70-79	27	27
80-89	4	4
90-100	2	2
Total	132	139

In the graph: Red is what should have happened, Blue is what did happen.

Now that I've gone through the whole explanation of the stats, I'll skip straight to the numbers.

2. ATS
ATS didn't do as well as straight-up. Looks like it was pretty close to a flip of a coin. The right team would win by the wrong score. I would hate to tamper with the program when the straight-up accuracy is so reliable after 209 games. I'll probably just stop posting ATS until I can fix it up.

ATS	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	37	86	43
	60-69	46	78	59
	70-79	18	33	54.5
	80-89	0	3	0
	90-100	1	1	100
	Total	102	201	50.7

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	47	37
60-69	51	46
70-79	25	18
80-89	3	0
90-100	1	1
Total	127	102

Interestingly, the slope of the trend line is almost what it should be. Had 1 of the 80% games won, it would be almost perfect (albeit far lower than it should be). That suggests that all I may need to do is to add/subtract from the calculated probability to arrive at the true probability... interesting. There is back testing to be done!

3. Over/Under
Finally, if you haven't gone to sleep yet, here are the O/U stats. O/U actually did much better than I expected. It performed much better than the ATS and its accuracy approached the expected accuracy.

Over/Under	% Interval	Wins	Games	O/U Win %
	50-59	77	145	53.1
	60-69	30	48	62.5
	70-79	3	6	50
	80-89	2	3	66.7
	90-100	2	2	100
	Total	114	204	55.9

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	80	77
60-69	31	30
70-79	5	3
80-89	3	2
90-100	2	2
Total	121	114

O/U actually performed very well compared to what was expected. And hell, at 56% accuracy, you'll be making money anyway.

You've seen the performance, you've seen the stats, you know what to expect. What it comes down to:

Everyone's a winner with Black Box Sports. (especially if you win ~~$20~~ $50 in the name change contest)

CHECK OUT THE POST BELOW FOR THE NAME CHANGE CONTEST (win ~~$20~~ $50 for sending in your best name)

Jonathan
Black Box Sports

The Kickoff Approaches

2009-08-05T11:30:00.003-05:00

What's up, Black Boxers?

Is it me or does the off-season seem to take forever? Finally, it's just a few short weeks away. NFL Black Box will be back in business starting week 2 of the regular season. That's Sunday, September 20th.

There have been a lot of changes over the past few months, so this is bound to be as exciting a season as ever. Will Terrell Owens tear up the Bills? Maybe add another team to those left in his wake. Will Tony Romeo rebound from that (long overdue) breakup with Simpson and maybe even win a (long overdue) playoff game? Is Eli Manning really worth $97 million? Denver running back Knowshon Moreno: Vegas' favorite to win rookie of the year at 5/2 odds. I don't Know about that.

Keep checking back for updates as the season draws near. As always, feel free to send your questions/comments/suggestions/hate mail/love mail/paypal donations to:

blackboxsports@gmail.com

Rock on,

Jonathan
Black Box Sports

Super Bowl XLII

2009-01-29T16:23:00.018-06:00

The Super Bowl is finally here. Pittsburgh and Arizona? Anyone see that one coming? It looks like there's a big-time upset in the making. Out of 1001 simulations on a neutral field, the winner is ... Arizona with 564 wins. Sure, they're only a 56% favorite, but that's significant considering that they're a 7 point dog. I think the line this weekend has more to do with the public's perception of the teams as well as all the hype surrounding the Steelers. Arizona is sneaking by while Pittsburgh is getting all of the attention. Does this scenario sound familiar? The same thing happened last year when the Giants came out of nowhere to beat the unbeatable.

First, I'll put up the scores. There are is an abundance of different lines this weekend, so I will post them all along with their odds (in decimal format of course. Bear in mind -110 = 1.91). Below the scores are some key stats.

The best bets have ***** next to them.

Super Bowl XLII

Average Score
Pittsburgh Steelers: 17.96
Arizona Cardinals: 19.60
Looks to be a low scoring match-up, dominated by the defense. This postseason, PIT has allowed 19 pts/game, ARI 20.7.

Winner
Pittsburgh Steelers: 44%, 1.44
Arizona Cardinals: 56%, 2.85 *****
This is a close one, but ARI comes out on top. Though 56% is not much more than a coin toss. Over the course of the 2008 season, games with confidence percentages between 50-59% are correct 64% of the time. In reality, 64% is a little more substantial, but it still could go either way.

Spread
Here's the fun part. Arizona is the underdog, so expect them to beat all of the lines, albeit with different %'s.

BET, confidence %, bet price. If *****, then it's a favorable bet.

ARI +7, 80%, 1.83 *****
ARI +1.5, 60%, 2.65 *****
ARI +4.5, 71%, 2.20 *****
ARI +9.5, 82%, 1.67 *****
ARI +10.5, 85%, 1.53 *****
ARI +13.5, 89%, 1.42 *****
Arizona probably won't lose by at least 2 touchdowns.

Over/Under
NFLSim has been pretty accurate when predicting totals with confidence over 60%: 37-22, or 63%. Let's see what we've got.

First lets look at Team Totals, i.e. will Arizona score more or less than 20 points?
ARI UNDER 20, 58%, 1.83 *****
PIT UNDER 26.5, 81%, 1.83 *****

Now totals:
UNDER 39.5, 58%, 3.00 *****
UNDER 42.5, 67%, 2.60 *****
UNDER 45.5, 75%, 2.00 *****
UNDER 50.5, 85%, 1.56 *****
UNDER 53.5, 89%, 1.40 *****

Fun/Prop Bets
Here's the per game breakdown of scoring plays.

	FG	Rush	Pass
PIT	0.9	0.9	1.3
ARI	1.4	0.6	1.6
Total	2.3	1.5	2.9

PIT is going to dominate the rush game while ARI has the passing advantage. PIT's defense is going to hold ARI to a lot of FGs.

The first score of the game by any team:
TD, 65%, 1.57 *****
FG, 35%, 2.35

Here is the per game play breakdown.

	Rush	Pass	Total
PIT	32.6	26.2	58.8
ARI	20.4	31.2	51.7
Total	53.1	57.4	110.5

First offensive play by any team:
PASS, 52%, 1.91
RUSH, 48%, 1.77

First penalty against:
PIT, 47%, 1.87
ARI, 53%, 1.80

Total Pass Completions:
Kurt Warner
OVER 22.5, 27%, 1.91
UNDER 22.5, 73%, 1.77 *****

Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 17.5, 38%, 1.80
UNDER 17.5, 62%, 1.87 *****

Total Yards:
Kurt Warner
OVER 255.5, 23%, 1.83
UNDER 255.5, 77%, 1.83 *****

Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 245.5, 14%, 1.91
UNDER 245.5, 86%, 1.77 *****

Total Team Rushing Yards:
Arizona
OVER 76.5, 24%, 1.83
UNDER 76.5, 76%, 1.83 *****

Pittsburgh
OVER 109.5, 42%, 1.77
UNDER 109.5, 58%, 1.91 *****

Total Sacks:
Arizona
OVER 2.5, 43%, 1.77
UNDER 2.5, 57%, 1.91 *****

Pittsburgh
OVER 2.5, 41%, 1.83
UNDER 2.5, 59%, 1.83 *****

Most Passing Yards:
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
WARNER, 65%, 1.63 *****
ROETHLISBERGER, 35%, 2.20

Most Rushing Yards:
Edgerrin James vs. Willie Parker
JAMES, 19%, 3.50
PARKER, 81%, 1.29 *****

Playoffs, Round 3

2009-01-15T19:00:00.002-06:00

PHI -4 at ARI, 47
PHI: 21.61
ARI: 21.30
Winner: PHI, 52%
Spread: ARI +4, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

BAL at PIT -6, 34.5
BAL: 18.67
PIT: 18.06
Winner: BAL, 53%
Spread: BAL +6, 72%
O/U: OVER, 57%

Playoffs, Round 2

2009-01-10T12:15:00.005-06:00

BAL at TEN -3, 34.5
BAL: 17.25
TEN: 19.61
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: TEN -3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%

ARI at CAR -10, 48.5
ARI: 22.71
CAR: 23.47
Winner: CAR, 52%
Spread: ARI + 10, 79%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

PHI at NYG -4, 39
PHI: 21.58
NYG: 20.81
Winner: NYG, 52% ***** PHI has a higher average score
Spread: PHI +4, 64%
O/U: OVER, 54%

SD at PIT -7, 37
SD: 17.71
PIT: 21.81
Winner: PIT, 64%
Spread: SD +7, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Playoffs, Round 1

2009-01-01T22:39:00.003-06:00

All underdog victories... interesting.

ATL -2.5 at ARI, 51
ATL: 22.74
ARI: 23.44
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: ARI +2.5, 61%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

IND -1 at SD, 51
IND: 20.22
SD: 22.61
Winner: SD, 59%
Spread: SD +1, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 77%

BAL -3.5 at MIA, 37.5
BAL: 18.11
MIA: 21.59
Winner: MIA, 61%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 70%
O/U: OVER, 56%

PHI -3 at MIN, 42
PHI: 20.61
MIN: 21.18
Winner: MIN, 56%
Spread: MIN +3, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

Week 17: Predictions

2008-12-23T13:23:00.001-06:00

No picks for week 17. Check back for playoff predictions.

Happy holidays!

Week 16: Predictions

2008-12-20T15:01:00.012-06:00

Son of a bitch, kind of lost track of time. The DAL game will be up tonight, check back later.

Until then, head over to nbablackbox.blogspot.com, lots of games tonight.

BAL at DAL -5, 39
BAL: 20.54
DAL: 19.65
Winner: BAL, 51%
Spread: BAL +5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ARI at NE -7.5, 43.5
ARI: 22.07
NE: 23.66
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: ARI +7.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 55%

CIN at CLE -3, 32.5
CIN: 18.10
CLE: 22.22
Winner: CLE, 54%
Spread: CIN +3, 53%
O/U: OVER, 69%

MIA -4 at KC, 38
MIA: 26.05
KC: 20.01
Winner: MIA, 66%
Spread: MIA -4, 52%
O/U: OVER, 69%

NO -7 at DET, 50.5
NO: 26.51
DET: 19.54
Winner: NO, 69%
Spread: DET +7, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

PIT -2.5 at TEN, 34.5
PIT: 17.12
TEN: 21.17
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: TEN +2.5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 58%

SD at TB -3.5, 42.5
SD: 19.76
TB: 22.82
Winner: TB, 55%
Spread: SD +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

SF -5.5 at STL, 42.5
SF: 20.58
STL: 21.43
Winner: SF, 51%
Spread: STL +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

BUF at DEN -6, 45
BUF: 22.95
DEN: 25.16
Winner: DEN, 56%
Spread: BUF +6, 62%
O/U: OVER, 57%

HOU -7 at OAK, 43.5
HOU: 24.61
OAK: 21.45
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: OAK +7, 61%
O/U: OVER, 55%

NYJ -3.5 at SEA, 41.5
NYJ: 24.57
SEA: 21.97
Winner: NYJ, 59%
Spread: NYJ -3.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 62%

ATL at MIN -3, 43
ATL: 18.99
MIN: 26.17
Winner: MIN, 73%
Spread: MIN -3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

PHI -5.5 at WAS, 37
PHI: 19.06
WAS: 20.88
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: WAS +5.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CAR at NYG -3.5, 36.5
CAR: 20.49
NYG: 22.10
Winner: NYG, 55%
Spread: CAR +3.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 69%

GB at CHI -4, 40.5
GB: 18.61
CHI: 23.44
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: GB +4, 51%
O/U: OVER, 57%

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

2008-12-13T17:17:00.006-06:00

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Week 15: Predictions

2008-12-10T23:17:00.013-06:00

Hey everyone, be sure to check out NBA Black Box. NFL Black Box is great and all, but NBA BB is really knocking it out of the park. Over the past 7 days, it's 16-3 ATS (84.2%). On the season, the best picks, the 5-Star picks are 83-43 (65.9%). There are power rankings, too. It's totally free just like NFL BB, so take advantage of it.

May want to be careful with the spread, it's been over-estimating the probability of the underdog covering. In other words, teams that win aren't winning by enough. Which is very strange because the win % is virtually identical to reality (I'll go over that when I post the season's results) and O/U is not far behind. Just to give you an idea, without all of the details, based on confidence % and the number of games in each interval, the expected number straight up wins (oversimplified as the number of wins I should have, if prediction approximates reality), is 110, NFLSim hit 116, so that's pretty close. O/U expected wins is 100, actual is 94, again it's pretty close. Expected ATS wins is 105, though only 80 hit.

What's going on? NFLSim is perfect at assigning probabilities to straight up wins, very good at assigning probabilities to point totals, but the spread has been getting lost somewhere along the way. The right teams are winning, but the winner should be scoring more and the loser less.

Moral of the story: if your system's spread agrees with NFLSim's spread, go for it. Totals seem reliable. For straight up bets, if Vegas's payout is greater than the value of 100/win%, i.e. 100/53 = 1.89 vs. Vegas payout of 1.79, bet on that team to win, whether it's the predicted to win or lose (since win % are so accurate, mathematically, you will make money in the long run).

NO at CHI -3, 45
NO: 20.42
CHI: 23.24
Winner: CHI, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

BUF at NYJ -7, 41
BUF: 20.22
NYJ: 25.19
Winner: NYJ, 61%
Spread: BUF +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DET at IND -17, 45
DET: 17.39
IND: 26.70
Winner: IND, 76%
Spread: DET +17, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

GB -2 at JAX, 45
GB: 23.53
JAX: 21.97
Winner: GB, 56%
Spread: JAX +2, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

SF at MIA -6.5, 41.5
SF: 17.04
MIA: 25.29
Winner: MIA, 73%
Spread: MIA -6.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 51%

TEN -3.5 at HOU , 44.5
TEN: 22.37
HOU: 23.39
Winner: HOU, 52%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

SD -6 at KC, 45.5
SD: 24.06
KC: 22.32
Winner: SD, 56%
Spread: KC +6, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

TB at ATL -3, 44.5
TB: 19.81
ATL: 22.83
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: TB +3, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

DEN at CAR -7.5, 48
DEN: 20.53
CAR: 24.29
Winner: CAR, 59%
Spread: DEN +7.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

NE -7 at OAK, 40
NE: 23.34
OAK: 20.83
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: OAK +7, 68%
O/U: OVER, 62%

WAS -7 at CIN, 36.5
WAS: 22.70
CIN: 17.12
Winner: WAS, 64%
Spread: CIN +7, 64%
O/U: OVER, 59%

PIT at BAL -2, 34.5
PIT: 15.31
BAL: 22.02
Winner: BAL, 68%
Spread: BAL -2, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NYG at DAL -3, 45
NYG: 20.59
DAL: 20.17
Winner: NYG, 52%
Spread: NYG +3, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at ARI -3, 47
MIN: 20.13
ARI: 22.68
Winner: ARI, 58%
Spread: MIN +3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 66%

SEA -2.5 at STL, 43
SEA: 21.90
STL: 22.52
Winner: STL, 51%
Spread: STL +2.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 55%

CLE at PHI -14, 39
CLE: 15.61
PHI: 26.12
Winner: PHI, 80%
Spread: CLE +14, 62%
O/U: OVER, 56%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	10	60.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	2	2	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	16	62.5%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	4	9	44.4%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	14	57.1%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	11	45.5%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	15	53.3%

Week 14: Predictions

2008-12-04T18:12:00.012-06:00

First Thanksgiving, now finals. The good news is yesterday was the last class day of the semester. The bad news is finals have begun. I'll try to post as much as possible, but unfortunately school comes before handicapping... or so I'm led to believe...

OAK at SD -9.5, 41.5
OAK: 18.44
SD: 22.79
Winner: SD, 64%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

ATL at NO -3, 51
ATL: 21.61
NO: 24.89
Winner: NO, 62%
Spread: NO -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

CIN at IND -13.5, 42
CIN: 17.74
IND: 24.17
Winner: IND, 69%
Spread: CIN +13.5, 71%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

CLE at TEN -14, 37.5
CLE: 15.64
TEN: 22.50
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: CLE +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at GB -6, 47
HOU: 25.20
GB: 23.44
Winner: HOU, 55%
Spread: HOU +6, 70%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at CHI -6.5, 40
JAX: 17.68
CHI: 22.77
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: JAX +6.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PHI at NYG -7, 43.5
PHI: 20.46
NYG: 22.23
Winner: NYG, 56%
Spread: PHI +7, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

KC at DEN -9, 49
KC: 21.85
DEN: 26.00
Winner: DEN, 65%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

DAL at PIT -3, 40
DAL: 17.88
PIT: 22.37
Winner: PIT, 64%
Spread: PIT -3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

MIA at BUF, 42
MIA: 23.18
BUF: 21.74
Winner: MIA, 53%
Spread: MIA, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%

NYJ -4 at SF, 44.5
NYJ: 23.36
SF: 21.11
Winner: NYJ, 56%
Spread: SF +4, 57%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -4.5 at SEA, 43
NE: 25.50
SEA: 22.72
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: SEA +4.5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 62%

STL at ARI -14, 48.5
STL: 18.45
ARI: 26.02
Winner: ARI, 73%
Spread: STL +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

WAS at BAL -5, 35.5
WAS: 19.83
BAL: 21.00
Winner: BAL, 55%
Spread: WAS +5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 61%

TB at CAR -3, 38
TB: 20.24
CAR: 20.78
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: TB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 52%

Didn't have a chance to post the MIN game. Too bad, considering I hit the winner, spread, and o/u. But, since I didn't post it, these results don't include it. It would have brought the records to 81.3, 56.3, and 68.8% respectively.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	7	57.1%
	60-69	7	7	100.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	12	15	80.0%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	6	83.3%
	60-69	2	5	40.0%
	70-79	1	4	25.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	15	53.3%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	8	11	72.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	15	66.7%

NBA Black Box

2008-11-28T16:01:00.002-06:00

NBA Black Box is officially underway. I've been posting for a couple weeks and things are looking great. Overall, on the season, NBA Black Box is 120-31 (79.5%) picking the winner, 58-31 (65.2%) ATS, and 22-7 (75.9%) when picking the underdog to win (great for moneyline bet). Check it out at nbablackbox.blogspot.com. Picks go up daily, I try to put them up as early as I can. Visit everyday and tell all your buddies. As usual, everything is 100% free.

Thanksgiving Predictions

2008-11-27T03:14:00.010-06:00

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Eat a lot, watch a lot of football, and have fun not working. Good luck!

Wow, what a hectic week. Traveling + holiday + family is not conducive to running a time-sensitive operation.

ARI at PHI -3, 46.5
ARI: 21.23
PHI: 24.03
Winner: PHI, 56%
Spread: ARI +3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

SEA at DAL -13, 47
SEA: 19.00
DAL: 23.36
Winner: DAL, 64%
Spread: SEA +13, 76%
O/U: UNDER, 67%

TEN -11.5 at DET, 44
TEN: 22.78
DET: 17.43
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: DET +11.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 64%

SF at BUF -6.5, 43
SF: 20.18
BUF: 24.63
Winner: BUF, 60%
Spread: SF +6.5, 43%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BAL -7 at CIN, 36
BAL: 21.92
CIN: 16.89
Winner: BAL, 61%
Spread: CIN +6, 61%
O/U: OVER, 56%

IND -5 at CLE, 45
IND: 20.99
CLE: 21.90
Winner: CLE, 51%
Spread: CLE +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

CAR at GB -3, 42
CAR: 22.87
GB: 22.31
Winner: GB, 51%
Spread: CAR +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 57%

MIA -9 at STL, 45
MIA: 27.31
STL: 18.77
Winner: MIA, 74%
Spread: STL +9, 54%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO at TB -4, 46.5
NO: 21.37
TB: 22.46
Winner: NO, 51%
Spread: NO +4, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 60%

NYG -3.5 at WAS, 41.5
NYG: 19.63
WAS: 22.39
Winner: WAS, 57%
Spread: WAS +3.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

ATL at SD -4, 49
ATL: 22.59
SD: 26.49
Winner: SD, 61%
Spread: ATL +4, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

PIT at NE -1, 40
PIT: 17.76
NE: 22.53
Winner: NE, 62%
Spread: NE -1, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

DEN at NYJ -8, 48
DEN: 20.64
NYJ: 26.89
Winner: NYJ, 68%
Spread: DEN +8, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

KC at OAK -3, 41.5
KC: 20.09
OAK: 25.09
Winner: OAK, 63%
Spread: OAK -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI at MIN -3, 41
CHI: 19.48
MIN: 20.54
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: CHI +3, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

JAX at HOU-3, 48
JAX: 21.37
HOU: 27.89
Winner: HOU, 67%
Spread: HOU -3, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	9	44.4%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	16	43.8%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	9	66.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	0	3	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	16	50.0%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	12	33.3%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	16	43.8%

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

2008-11-23T02:29:00.004-06:00

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

Week 12: Predictions

2008-11-20T18:23:00.009-06:00

My apologies... I'll be leaving out the Dallas game again this week.
Update (11:58 a.m.): Posted DAL game. Use at your own risk.

CIN at PIT -11, 34.5
CIN: 15.15
PIT: 22.40
Winner: PIT, 72%
Spread: CIN +11, 65%
O/U: OVER, 58%

HOU at CLE -3, 50.5
HOU: 26.82
CLE: 22.22
Winner: HOU, 62%
Spread: HOU +3, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

TB -8.5 at DET, 42
TB: 26.05
DET: 18.34
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: DET +8.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NYJ at TEN -5, 40.5
NYJ: 19.68
TEN: 23.49
Winner: TEN, 63%
Spread: NYJ +5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%

BUF -3 at KC, 43.5
BUF: 23.84
KC: 21.98
Winner: BUF, 55%
Spread: KC +3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CHI -8.5 at STL, 43
CHI: 21.42
STL: 20.08
Winner: CHI, 57%
Spread: STL +8.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

NE at MIA, 42
NE: 19.64
MIA: 25.26
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA, 67%
O/U: OVER, 53%

MIN at JAX -2.5, 40.5
MIN: 22.23
JAX: 19.91
Winner: MIN, 55%
Spread: MIN +2.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

PHI at BAL -1, 39.5
PHI: 21.02
BAL: 20.18
Winner: PHI, 52%
Spread: PHI +1, 55%
O/U: OVER, 52%

OAK at DEN -9.5, 42.5
OAK: 20.94
DEN: 21.48
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CAR at ATL -1, 43
CAR: 20.36
ATL: 22.58
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL -1, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG -3 at ARI, 48
NYG: 21.91
ARI: 22.96
Winner: ARI, 54%
Spread: ARI +3, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

WAS -3.5 at SEA, 40.5
WAS: 24.11
SEA: 20.04
Winner: WAS, 62%
Spread: WAS -3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

IND at SD -3, 49.5
IND: 20.25
SD: 23.66
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: SD -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 68%

GB at NO -2.5, 51.5
GB: 22.80
NO: 25.11
Winner: NO, 55%
Spread: NO -2.5, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	8	62.5%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	9	15	60.0%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	8	37.5%
	60-69	1	4	25.0%
	70-79	2	3	66.7%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	15	40.0%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	10	12	83.3%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	15	73.3%

Week 11: Results

2008-11-18T13:27:00.002-06:00

Not a bad Week 11. Knocked the O/U out of the park. I left out the DAL game because I felt like that wasn't a reliable game. I missed the Spread but hit the O/U for that game, so it balances out.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	7	85.7%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	2	3	66.7%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	14	78.6%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	8	50.0%
	60-69	3	7	42.9%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	15	46.7%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	9	12	75.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	16	62.5%

NFLSim Stats vs. Actual NFL Stats

2008-11-17T11:49:00.004-06:00

I'm sure everyone's curious to see how NFLSim actually compares to real life. These are the overall results so far. First, I'll post the comparison of NFLSim averages to NFL averages. Later, I'll post a team-by-team comparison to see how well it works on a smaller scale. I'm only going to focus on the main stats: passing, rushing, and game stats. I'll put up my average alongside the real stats. When you average the stats from all of the teams, the total offensive averages are the same as the defensive averages.

Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.

I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.

These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.

PASSING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.2	32.4

COMP/G
Average	17.0	19.8

COMP %
Average	62.3%	61.3%

YDS/G
Average	192.2	212.9

YDS/PASS
Average	7.06	6.97
PASS TD/G
Average	1.60	1.30

INT/G
Average	0.79	0.90

SACK/G
Average	2.1	2.1

QB RATING
Average	91.0	83.6

RUSHING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.6	27.3

YDS/G
Average	118.4	112.3

YDS/RUSH
Average	4.3	4.1

RUSH TD/G
Average	1.2	0.9

FUM/G
Average	0.6	0.4

GAME STATS
PTS/G	NFLSim	NFL
Average	22.9	22.2

PLAYS/G
Average	60.3	61.8

TOTAL YDS/G
Average	310.6	325.2

YDS/PLAY
Average	5.2	5.3

3rd DN %
Average	25.8%	39.4%

YDS/PT
Average	13.6	14.9

Week 11: Stats

2008-11-15T12:33:00.000-06:00

Week 11	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.22	5.52	13.70	108.29
Atlanta Falcons	7.93	5.92	14.61	105.39
Baltimore Ravens	6.50	4.44	14.86	82.55
Buffalo Bills	8.03	5.60	12.55	99.65
Carolina Panthers	8.24	5.69	13.04	104.08
Chicago Bears	5.06	4.07	12.73	64.71
Cincinnati Bengals	6.17	4.45	16.77	73.28
Cleveland Browns	6.20	4.53	15.03	83.65
Dallas Cowboys	6.45	4.60	16.68	81.16
Denver Broncos	6.76	5.17	14.54	86.81
Detroit Lions	5.72	4.30	16.50	74.13
Green Bay Packers	7.25	4.97	13.48	94.74
Houston Texans	5.86	4.54	14.02	78.42
Indianapolis Colts	7.94	5.60	13.70	98.65
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.97	4.94	14.82	88.92
Kansas City Chiefs	6.67	5.11	13.90	86.81
Miami Dolphins	7.49	5.42	13.22	94.58
Minnesota Vikings	6.16	4.62	15.26	76.51
New England Patriots	7.15	4.92	12.35	98.34
New Orleans Saints	8.01	5.76	14.63	101.83
New York Giants	6.52	5.00	14.33	81.69
New York Jets	7.34	5.40	15.38	87.26
Oakland Raiders	6.27	4.48	17.35	77.90
Philadelphia Eagles	6.70	4.95	12.76	96.44
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.41	4.86	13.89	95.48
San Diego Chargers	6.95	4.53	13.89	91.91
San Francisco 49ers	6.80	5.20	15.93	83.15
Seattle Seahawks	6.40	4.88	13.35	83.52
St. Louis Rams	5.82	4.31	14.39	76.82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.04	5.09	15.14	93.85
Tennessee Titans	6.50	4.77	13.70	87.08
Washington Redskins	7.25	5.42	12.59	101.63

Average	6.87	4.97	14.35	88.73

Week 11: Predictions

2008-11-13T13:28:00.009-06:00

Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.

NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%

HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%

SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

Week 10: Results

2008-11-12T11:00:00.000-06:00

Week 10 was disappointing in terms of ATS and O/U, but NFLSim picked 11-3 straight up, so it wasn't all bad. The 50-59% games really got slammed, but if you read the Midseason Progressive Results post, you wouldn't have bet on them anyway. After this week, 60+% ATS and O/U picks are still 61.3 and 66.7% on the season, respectively.

I just found out about another NFL simulator over at www.whatifsports.com, a division of Fox Sports. Actually, they've got a pretty cool setup. They let you simulate games using teams from different seasons. I can't find their pick record, but someone posted that they are 69.5% straight up and 53.7% ATS on the season. No confidence numbers were available. On the season they beat AccuScore and NFLSim by a few % points, but when picks are made based on confidence, NFLSim has a substantial edge.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	7	85.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	14	78.6%

Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	9	11.1%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	1	3	33.3%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	3	14	21.4%

Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	12	33.3%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	5	14	35.7%

Midterms

2008-11-12T00:04:00.003-06:00

Midterms Wednesday and Thursday... must study... Will update everything as soon as I get a chance... Prediction will be up for Thursday night's game. Wish me luck.

Week 10: Stats

2008-11-08T16:39:00.002-06:00

Week 10	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.00	5.56	13.15	100.01
Atlanta Falcons	7.22	5.66	13.20	92.22
Baltimore Ravens	7.36	5.11	15.52	93.18
Buffalo Bills	7.94	5.19	14.73	98.63
Carolina Panthers	7.16	4.86	14.57	91.76
Chicago Bears	6.11	4.61	14.78	75.65
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns	7.28	5.54	15.23	94.43
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos	6.66	4.86	14.36	86.49
Detroit Lions	6.96	5.28	13.30	88.59
Green Bay Packers	7.47	4.81	15.07	97.89
Houston Texans	7.03	5.10	12.87	87.90
Indianapolis Colts	6.29	4.23	14.22	83.05
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.64	5.19	13.66	104.95
Kansas City Chiefs	6.40	4.71	15.77	86.89
Miami Dolphins	8.67	5.82	11.95	114.71
Minnesota Vikings	6.52	5.15	12.83	79.25
New England Patriots	7.33	5.27	13.84	98.26
New Orleans Saints	7.52	5.31	14.65	97.86
New York Giants	6.51	4.90	17.03	82.74
New York Jets	8.19	6.33	14.13	99.00
Oakland Raiders	6.41	5.02	14.70	83.72
Philadelphia Eagles	7.36	5.41	12.26	95.03
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.40	4.90	13.56	92.85
San Diego Chargers	8.19	6.01	13.93	100.77
San Francisco 49ers	7.41	4.94	14.65	92.78
Seattle Seahawks	6.06	4.45	16.49	76.96
St. Louis Rams	6.68	4.48	14.09	89.97
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans	5.56	4.30	12.83	79.03
Washington Redskins

Average	7.12	5.11	14.19	91.59