This week's spreadsheet:
Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Earlier spreadsheets:
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Friday, October 1, 2010
Technical Difficulties
Having some technical difficulties x_x
Picks will definitely be up before the games.
Check out these sweet lists of NFL records in the meantime:
All Time Individual Records
All Time Team Records
Picks will definitely be up before the games.
Check out these sweet lists of NFL records in the meantime:
All Time Individual Records
All Time Team Records
Friday, September 24, 2010
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
OK, here we go, NFL Sim Capper's first week of the season...
I got the spreads at the beginning of the week so they may be off by a point. Next week's sheet will include individual game matchups along with in-depth spread analysis
All simulations improve as more data becomes available. One week of stats isn't a lot of data to go off of so the first couple weeks of picks might be erratic. That being said, historically NFLSim tends to do well before the odds makers figure out which teams they like, particularly when picking underdogs straight up.
Contents of the spreadsheet:
"Picks": A summary of this week's games. Matchups with odds are posted on the far left; the column 'Score' contains the average scores from simulations. 'Winner' lists the predicted winner of the game and the % of simulations that the team won. 'Spread' is the winner against the spread and the % of simulation that the team beat the spread. 'Total' is the over/under prediction with the % of simulations that maintained that outcome. 'Fair Moneyline Odds' is the minimum payout that is required to make a straight up bet on the predicted favorite profitable given the % calculated by NFLSim. 'Results' is updated at the end of the week; it shows the number of teams in each prediction confidence interval (50-59%, 60-69%,...).
"Sim Stats": A collection of stats from this week's simulations.
"Fantasy Projections": Fantasy scores based on the simulated stats. There are only team stats, no individual stats. So if you see NE with 19.1 Passing points it may be a good idea to start Tom Brady over a QB whose team has fewer points. Whereas if you have Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco (you lucky bastard), and you could only chose one, and NE has 19.1 pts and CIN has 12.5 pts, Randy Moss is a better play. Likewise for Rushing and Kicking.
"Matchup": Normally every game will have its own page dedicated to the matchup's scores, stats, and spread analysis.
As always, email me at simcapper@gmail.com with all of your questions.
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy
I got the spreads at the beginning of the week so they may be off by a point. Next week's sheet will include individual game matchups along with in-depth spread analysis
All simulations improve as more data becomes available. One week of stats isn't a lot of data to go off of so the first couple weeks of picks might be erratic. That being said, historically NFLSim tends to do well before the odds makers figure out which teams they like, particularly when picking underdogs straight up.
Contents of the spreadsheet:
"Picks": A summary of this week's games. Matchups with odds are posted on the far left; the column 'Score' contains the average scores from simulations. 'Winner' lists the predicted winner of the game and the % of simulations that the team won. 'Spread' is the winner against the spread and the % of simulation that the team beat the spread. 'Total' is the over/under prediction with the % of simulations that maintained that outcome. 'Fair Moneyline Odds' is the minimum payout that is required to make a straight up bet on the predicted favorite profitable given the % calculated by NFLSim. 'Results' is updated at the end of the week; it shows the number of teams in each prediction confidence interval (50-59%, 60-69%,...).
"Sim Stats": A collection of stats from this week's simulations.
"Fantasy Projections": Fantasy scores based on the simulated stats. There are only team stats, no individual stats. So if you see NE with 19.1 Passing points it may be a good idea to start Tom Brady over a QB whose team has fewer points. Whereas if you have Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco (you lucky bastard), and you could only chose one, and NE has 19.1 pts and CIN has 12.5 pts, Randy Moss is a better play. Likewise for Rushing and Kicking.
"Matchup": Normally every game will have its own page dedicated to the matchup's scores, stats, and spread analysis.
As always, email me at simcapper@gmail.com with all of your questions.
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy
Thursday, September 9, 2010
NFL Sim Capper 2010
After much deliberation and procrastination I've decided to stick around for another season. I have a pretty demanding work schedule so it's yet to be seen which services I'll be able to provide, but after a couple of weeks things should be up and running.
If you've been to this site before, welcome back!
If you're new, feel free to look around ... check out a typical post from last season:
WEEK 15 PICKS, STATS & FANTASY
Every week I post a spreadsheet with Straight Up, ATS, and O/U picks, individual matchup analyses, stats generated by NFLSim, and fantasy recommendations based on those stats.
NFLSim needs some initial stats to run its simulations so there won't be any picks week 1. Things get rolling starting week 2 so check back in a few days!
As always, feel free to shoot me an email with any questions/comments.
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
simcapper@gmail.com
If you've been to this site before, welcome back!
If you're new, feel free to look around ... check out a typical post from last season:
WEEK 15 PICKS, STATS & FANTASY
Every week I post a spreadsheet with Straight Up, ATS, and O/U picks, individual matchup analyses, stats generated by NFLSim, and fantasy recommendations based on those stats.
NFLSim needs some initial stats to run its simulations so there won't be any picks week 1. Things get rolling starting week 2 so check back in a few days!
As always, feel free to shoot me an email with any questions/comments.
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
simcapper@gmail.com
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
NEW! From Sim Capper
Alpha Capper Using prediction markets and proprietary algorithms, Alpha Capper predicts the stock market. It's doing damn well, so check it out!
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Results and Analysis of Simulated vs. Actual Stats Coming soon
Check back in the next few days to see the results of the entire season.
In addition, I'm going to post a comparison of the simulated and actual stats. I haven't seen it yet, so I have no idea what to expect.
Also, many thanks to Yoshi for his awesome contribution to Sim Capper. See that sweet logo up top? That's his creation. There's another one that's just as great over at nbablackbox.blogspot.com.
Questions, comments?
Jonathan
simcapper@gmail.com
In addition, I'm going to post a comparison of the simulated and actual stats. I haven't seen it yet, so I have no idea what to expect.
Also, many thanks to Yoshi for his awesome contribution to Sim Capper. See that sweet logo up top? That's his creation. There's another one that's just as great over at nbablackbox.blogspot.com.
Questions, comments?
Jonathan
simcapper@gmail.com
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