Week 2 Analysis

I'm not gonna lie, week 2 didn't go too well. Though that's not so surprising considering the nature of simulations - accuracy increases as the amount of data increases. Win = Green, Loss = Red, Push = Blue.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	2	0.0%
	90-100	1	1	100.0%
	Total	8	15	53.3%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	1	0.0%
	60-69	0	3	0.0%
	70-79	2	4	50.0%
	80-89	2	3	66.7%
	90-100	0	1	0.0%
	Total	4	12	33.3%

Week 2 Predictions

I'm going to withhold the total predictions for this week, but I'll put up the winners and spreads. This week's predictions are going to sound ridiculous. I was actually thinking about waiting another week before putting them up, but I went back and looked at the simulation of last season's week 2 to see how they compared. In both weeks 2 there were many picks of huge underdogs, but that week actually turned out to be a very good one. I won't give out that week's exact numbers because I don't want heightened expectations. Remember, use these at your own risk. If you're in a suicide / survivor pool and you see that SF wins 79% when they're a 7 point dog, use some discretion. Bear in mind it's the beginning of the season, so the picks may not be as reliable because of a lack of data. That said, here we go...

If the confidence is 50%, I'll just write EVEN.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Picks Start Week 2

One last reminder... picks start week 2. There aren't going to be any picks tomorrow. There may be an enlightening article in a few days. But no picks until next week, week 2. Keep checking back, though, some other cool stuff might pop up.

Just a Reminder...

Just a reminder, everyone: The predictions begin week 2, that's Sunday, Sept. 14. Since I need numbers to use in the simulation, I can't simulate week 1. I hate the wait but I'd rather hold off a week than B.S. some results and risk getting off to a bad start.

So keep coming back to NFL Black Box, I'll be posting a new article soon. If anyone has a question they'd like answered, send it in. Else, I'll think of something interesting to write about.


Jonathan
Black Box Sports

P.S. Sweet new logo, right?