Week 3 Predictions

This is the first time NFLSim has predicted all of the favorites to win. Also, something unusual - all home teams are favorites except for DAL at GB. Anyone know when the last time all home teams were favorites? I sure don't.

KC at ATL -5.5
Winner: ATL, 64%
Spread: ATL -5.5, 52%

OAK at BUF -9.5
Winner: BUF, 79%
Spread: BUF -9.5, 55%

TB at CHI -3
Winner: CHI, 55%
Spread: EVEN

CAR at MIN -3
Winner: MIN, 63%
Spread: MIN -3, 54%

MIA at NE -12.5
Winner: NE, 90%
Spread: NE -12.5, 66%

CIN at NYG -13.5
Winner: NYG, 84%
Spread: NYG -13.5, 51%

HOU at TEN -5
Winner: TEN, 87%
Spread: TEN -5, 77%

ARI at WAS -3
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: ARI +3, 61%

DET at SF -4
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF -4, 65%

STL at SEA -9.5
Winner: SEA, 71%
Spread: STL +9.5, 58%

NO at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN, 70%
Spread: DEN -5.5, 57%

PIT at PHI -3.5
Winner: PHI, 62%
Spread: EVEN

JAX at IND -5
Winner: IND, 71%
Spread: IND -5, 55%

CLE at BAL -2.5
Winner: BAL, 97%
Spread: BAL -2.5, 96%

DAL -3 at GB
Winner: DAL, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 59%

NYJ at SD -9
Winner: SD, 53%
Spread: NYJ +9, 75%

Just a Reminder...

Just a reminder, everyone: The predictions begin week 2, that's Sunday, Sept. 14. Since I need numbers to use in the simulation, I can't simulate week 1. I hate the wait but I'd rather hold off a week than B.S. some results and risk getting off to a bad start.

So keep coming back to NFL Black Box, I'll be posting a new article soon. If anyone has a question they'd like answered, send it in. Else, I'll think of something interesting to write about.


Jonathan
Black Box Sports

P.S. Sweet new logo, right?

Using past stats for the pre-season

Yesterday, I got a great question from 'singletrack'; I probably should have answered it in a new post, instead I answered it as a comment in the previous post. He asked whether or not the previous season's stats can be used to predict games during the following season, i.e. Can the 2007 regular season be used to help improve your prediction accuracy in the 2008 pre-season?

My quick answer is 'no', because the teams play with modified line-ups and the coaches aren't necessarily playing to win.

I'm sure most of the readers here are big into stats, trends, predictions, etc. If anyone has taken a more detailed look at the problem, please jump in with your findings. Or, if you just have an opinion, jump in with that.