Week 1 Picks

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks



Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

2008 Season Results

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These results from last year, excluding weeks 1 and 2, which there wasn't enough data for. It's broken into 3 sections: Straight up Winner, Against the Spread, and Over/Under. I broke down the approximately 200 games into 5 intervals, each interval representing a confidence spread of 10%. When you see 96 games in the 50-59% interval, that means of the 200+- games NFLSim picked, 96 games fell in the confidence interval of 50-59%. Likewise, 70 games had winners predicted as 60-69% favorites (in the straight-up category). To the left of the 'Games' column is the 'Correct' column. That is simply the number of NFLSim's correct picks in that interval. Accuracy is the percentage of time that NFLSim correctly picked a game in that interval.

1. Straight up Winner
NFLSim was absolutely phenomenal when it came to picking the winner. At first glance, you see the season record at 139-70 (66.5%). That's nothing special until you take a deeper look at the statistics.

Straight-up	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59%	61	96	63.5%
	60-69	45	70	64.3
	70-79	27	36	75
	80-89	4	5	8
	90-100	2	2	1
	Total	139	209	66.5

First, lets take a look at the 'expected number of wins' for each interval. In the 50-59% interval, it can be expected that after a large number of games, 55% of those games should be picked correctly(the mid-point of the 50's). In the 60-69% interval, 65% should be picked correctly, and so on. The closer NFLSim's number of correct picks is to the expected number of correct picks, the better NFLSim approximates reality. This is very important, because if you know the exact probability of a team winning, you automatically know if Vegas' payout makes for a good bet or a bad bet. The closer that the predicted probability is to the actual probability, the smarter your bets are. The smarter your bets, the more $ you make! (This is the basis for the Bet Optimization Algorithm.... which is new and much improved this year.)

If we take a look at the first interval, 50-59%, 96 games took place. In theory, you should expect that 55% of those teams predicted to win should actually win. 55% of 96 games, 55% * 96, equals an expected number of wins of 53. NFLSim actually picked 61 winners, so it beat the expected number of wins by 8. This is great because it picked more winners than it was supposed to, but it was pretty far from the expected number of wins. From 60% on is where it gets very, very interesting. NFLSim reaches near theoretical perfection - the probability given by NFLSim is the actual probability that the team will win!!! If anyone has seen this feat achieved by anyone else please let me know.

Here is a table of expected numbers of wins:

	Expected Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	53	61
60-69	46	45
70-79	27	27
80-89	4	4
90-100	2	2
Total	132	139

In the graph: Red is what should have happened, Blue is what did happen.



Now that I've gone through the whole explanation of the stats, I'll skip straight to the numbers.

2. ATS
ATS didn't do as well as straight-up. Looks like it was pretty close to a flip of a coin. The right team would win by the wrong score. I would hate to tamper with the program when the straight-up accuracy is so reliable after 209 games. I'll probably just stop posting ATS until I can fix it up.

ATS	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	37	86	43
	60-69	46	78	59
	70-79	18	33	54.5
	80-89	0	3	0
	90-100	1	1	100
	Total	102	201	50.7

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	47	37
60-69	51	46
70-79	25	18
80-89	3	0
90-100	1	1
Total	127	102

Interestingly, the slope of the trend line is almost what it should be. Had 1 of the 80% games won, it would be almost perfect (albeit far lower than it should be). That suggests that all I may need to do is to add/subtract from the calculated probability to arrive at the true probability... interesting. There is back testing to be done!

3. Over/Under
Finally, if you haven't gone to sleep yet, here are the O/U stats. O/U actually did much better than I expected. It performed much better than the ATS and its accuracy approached the expected accuracy.

Over/Under	% Interval	Wins	Games	O/U Win %
	50-59	77	145	53.1
	60-69	30	48	62.5
	70-79	3	6	50
	80-89	2	3	66.7
	90-100	2	2	100
	Total	114	204	55.9

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	80	77
60-69	31	30
70-79	5	3
80-89	3	2
90-100	2	2
Total	121	114

O/U actually performed very well compared to what was expected. And hell, at 56% accuracy, you'll be making money anyway.












You've seen the performance, you've seen the stats, you know what to expect. What it comes down to:

Everyone's a winner with Black Box Sports. (especially if you win $20 $50 in the name change contest)

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Jonathan
Black Box Sports

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

NFLSim Stats vs. Actual NFL Stats

I'm sure everyone's curious to see how NFLSim actually compares to real life. These are the overall results so far. First, I'll post the comparison of NFLSim averages to NFL averages. Later, I'll post a team-by-team comparison to see how well it works on a smaller scale. I'm only going to focus on the main stats: passing, rushing, and game stats. I'll put up my average alongside the real stats. When you average the stats from all of the teams, the total offensive averages are the same as the defensive averages.

Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.

I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.

These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.

PASSING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.2	32.4
COMP/G
Average	17.0	19.8
COMP %
Average	62.3%	61.3%
YDS/G
Average	192.2	212.9
YDS/PASS
Average	7.06	6.97
PASS TD/G
Average	1.60	1.30
INT/G
Average	0.79	0.90
SACK/G
Average	2.1	2.1
QB RATING
Average	91.0	83.6

RUSHING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.6	27.3
YDS/G
Average	118.4	112.3
YDS/RUSH
Average	4.3	4.1
RUSH TD/G
Average	1.2	0.9
FUM/G
Average	0.6	0.4

GAME STATS
PTS/G	NFLSim	NFL
Average	22.9	22.2
PLAYS/G
Average	60.3	61.8
TOTAL YDS/G
Average	310.6	325.2
YDS/PLAY
Average	5.2	5.3
3rd DN %
Average	25.8%	39.4%
YDS/PT
Average	13.6	14.9

Week 11: Stats

Week 11	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.22	5.52	13.70	108.29
Atlanta Falcons	7.93	5.92	14.61	105.39
Baltimore Ravens	6.50	4.44	14.86	82.55
Buffalo Bills	8.03	5.60	12.55	99.65
Carolina Panthers	8.24	5.69	13.04	104.08
Chicago Bears	5.06	4.07	12.73	64.71
Cincinnati Bengals	6.17	4.45	16.77	73.28
Cleveland Browns	6.20	4.53	15.03	83.65
Dallas Cowboys	6.45	4.60	16.68	81.16
Denver Broncos	6.76	5.17	14.54	86.81
Detroit Lions	5.72	4.30	16.50	74.13
Green Bay Packers	7.25	4.97	13.48	94.74
Houston Texans	5.86	4.54	14.02	78.42
Indianapolis Colts	7.94	5.60	13.70	98.65
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.97	4.94	14.82	88.92
Kansas City Chiefs	6.67	5.11	13.90	86.81
Miami Dolphins	7.49	5.42	13.22	94.58
Minnesota Vikings	6.16	4.62	15.26	76.51
New England Patriots	7.15	4.92	12.35	98.34
New Orleans Saints	8.01	5.76	14.63	101.83
New York Giants	6.52	5.00	14.33	81.69
New York Jets	7.34	5.40	15.38	87.26
Oakland Raiders	6.27	4.48	17.35	77.90
Philadelphia Eagles	6.70	4.95	12.76	96.44
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.41	4.86	13.89	95.48
San Diego Chargers	6.95	4.53	13.89	91.91
San Francisco 49ers	6.80	5.20	15.93	83.15
Seattle Seahawks	6.40	4.88	13.35	83.52
St. Louis Rams	5.82	4.31	14.39	76.82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.04	5.09	15.14	93.85
Tennessee Titans	6.50	4.77	13.70	87.08
Washington Redskins	7.25	5.42	12.59	101.63
Average	6.87	4.97	14.35	88.73

Week 8: Sim Stats

Week 8	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	7.06	4.96	15.17	92.37
Atlanta Falcons	6.74	4.80	16.17	83.52
Baltimore Ravens	7.03	5.15	14.10	87.59
Buffalo Bills	8.36	5.15	14.93	105.65
Carolina Panthers	8.00	5.37	12.95	102.12
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals	7.00	4.76	17.17	90.33
Cleveland Browns	5.81	4.45	13.43	78.52
Dallas Cowboys	6.05	4.69	16.03	71.09
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions	6.41	4.90	14.23	81.40
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans	6.99	5.50	11.52	95.98
Indianapolis Colts	6.27	4.37	16.69	76.58
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.33	5.33	13.90	92.84
Kansas City Chiefs	5.83	4.28	13.98	79.56
Miami Dolphins	7.40	5.34	13.38	99.93
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots	8.07	5.77	14.12	103.31
New Orleans Saints	8.70	6.08	15.39	107.64
New York Giants	6.47	4.81	13.82	89.33
New York Jets	7.92	6.26	14.17	97.06
Oakland Raiders	5.71	4.13	15.12	73.03
Philadelphia Eagles	7.14	5.48	11.15	99.34
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.51	4.91	12.27	98.24
San Diego Chargers	7.21	4.93	13.91	91.26
San Francisco 49ers	8.51	5.57	13.33	102.46
Seattle Seahawks	5.59	4.54	13.88	72.59
St. Louis Rams	7.13	5.13	15.31	90.66
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.25	4.52	12.95	89.82
Tennessee Titans	7.04	5.28	12.31	92.63
Washington Redskins	7.86	5.43	12.84	110.53
Simulated Average	7.05	5.07	14.08	91.26

Week 7: Requested Stats

A while back I got a request to post yds/pass, yds/play, and yds/pt. At this point in the season, I think the numbers are getting accurate, so here are those stats for week 7.

TEAM	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens	6.80	4.49	17.28
Buffalo Bills	7.59	5.32	12.65
Carolina Panthers	6.73	4.93	13.74
Chicago Bears	7.00	4.76	14.23
Cincinnati Bengals	6.39	4.18	13.41
Cleveland Browns	5.86	4.39	15.53
Dallas Cowboys	7.05	5.06	15.32
Denver Broncos	7.41	5.49	12.96
Detroit Lions	6.95	5.04	17.51
Green Bay Packers	8.11	5.71	13.52
Houston Texans	8.09	6.11	11.36
Indianapolis Colts	6.34	4.70	13.02
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs	5.38	4.38	14.60
Miami Dolphins	6.91	4.91	12.52
Minnesota Vikings	6.20	4.38	13.67
New England Patriots	7.88	5.68	14.57
New Orleans Saints	7.37	4.94	15.57
New York Giants	7.54	5.91	13.10
New York Jets	7.72	5.22	15.12
Oakland Raiders	6.71	4.94	11.81
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05	4.14	12.52
San Diego Chargers	7.31	4.94	14.76
San Francisco 49ers	7.09	4.93	14.95
Seattle Seahawks	5.83	4.46	15.55
St. Louis Rams	6.90	5.00	12.57
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.25	5.55	12.96
Tennessee Titans	6.62	4.90	13.98
Washington Redskins	7.49	5.63	12.20
Average	6.949	5.002	13.962

Passer Rating Explained

One of football's least understood metrics is the Passer Rating. It's an attempt by the statisticians to quantify a quarterback's performance, but how does it work? What does it take into account? Why the hell is the maximum rating 158.3? Given the evolution of the position, is it really a good measure of a quarterback's ability?

The QB's passer rating looks at four elements: completions, yards, interceptions, and touchdowns, all on a per completion basis. It does not include fumbles, sacks, or any type of rushing statistics. The maximum rating is 158.3 as opposed to a more logical 100.

The first element, Completions, "C" uses the formula: C = (COMP/ATT * 100 - 30)/20.
The third element, Interceptions: I = 2.375 - (INT/ATT * 25)
The fourth element, Touchdowns: T = TD/ATT * 20
The second element, Yards: Y = (YDS/ATT - 3)/4

The maximum possible value for each category is 2.375 and the minimum is 0; if COMP/ATT = .8, then C = 2.5. Since the maximum is 2.375, C equals 2.375, not 2.5. If COMP/ATT = .2 then C = -0.5. Since them minimum is 0, C equals 0. If COMP/ATT = .6 then C = 1.33. Finally, plug the values into the formula: (C+I+T+Y)/6 * 100. The result is the passer rating.

Using Tony Romo as an example, from the heartbreaking DAL-ARI game, we see that Romo had 24 completions, 38 attempts, 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

Therefore:
C = (24/38 * 100 - 30)/20
C = 1.66

I = 2.375 - (0/38 *25)
I = 2.375

T = 3/38 * 20
T = 1.58

Y = (321/38 - 3)/4
Y = 1.36

Rating = (1.66+2.375+1.58+1.36)/6 * 100
Romo's Rating = 116.2

That wasn't too tough.

The passer rating was developed by Don Smith and was first used in the 1973 season. Smith was a statistician and executive with the Pro Football Hall of Fame.1 The odd 158.3 limit came about when he decided that the average QB rating should be 66.6. That was pretty close to reality back in '73 when the average passer rating was 64.7, but last year, in '07, the average passer rating was 82.5, an increase of 28% over the decades. The idea behind his calculations was that he wanted a way to compare all QB's to the average QB at the time. Perhaps Smith's rating made sense 35 years ago when the numbers he used to calibrate the formulae were relevent, though obviously circumstances have changed since then. Completion % has gone from 51% to 61%, yards per game from 140 to 214, TD's from 1.0 to 1.4, etc.

That's a basic overview of passer rating. Once you get through the numbers, it starts to make sense. From now on when your buddies complain about that ridiculous stat, impress them with your knowledge of C.I.T.Y (comp, int, td, yds).

For you stats-minded people out there, maybe this gives you some ideas on how to make a modern formula that makes sense. When you do make one, post it for some peer review, it will be interesting to see what everyone can think up. I'm working on a formula of my own now, so stay tuned.


1. www.baseball-statistics.com/Greats/Century/passer-rating.htm