Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.

Week 5 Picks

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.

***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***

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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
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***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.

Week 3 Picks

Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:

Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.

***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed


Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
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Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.

7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:

Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)

Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)

Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)

Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...

Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
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I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.

Week 2 Picks

Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...

Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.

 Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
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The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.

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Most of the stats are up.

CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.

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Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.

There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.

Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...

Week 1 Results

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
 Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!


That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.

2008 Season Results

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These results from last year, excluding weeks 1 and 2, which there wasn't enough data for. It's broken into 3 sections: Straight up Winner, Against the Spread, and Over/Under. I broke down the approximately 200 games into 5 intervals, each interval representing a confidence spread of 10%. When you see 96 games in the 50-59% interval, that means of the 200+- games NFLSim picked, 96 games fell in the confidence interval of 50-59%. Likewise, 70 games had winners predicted as 60-69% favorites (in the straight-up category). To the left of the 'Games' column is the 'Correct' column. That is simply the number of NFLSim's correct picks in that interval. Accuracy is the percentage of time that NFLSim correctly picked a game in that interval.

1. Straight up Winner
NFLSim was absolutely phenomenal when it came to picking the winner. At first glance, you see the season record at 139-70 (66.5%). That's nothing special until you take a deeper look at the statistics.

Straight-up	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59%	61	96	63.5%
	60-69	45	70	64.3
	70-79	27	36	75
	80-89	4	5	8
	90-100	2	2	1
	Total	139	209	66.5

First, lets take a look at the 'expected number of wins' for each interval. In the 50-59% interval, it can be expected that after a large number of games, 55% of those games should be picked correctly(the mid-point of the 50's). In the 60-69% interval, 65% should be picked correctly, and so on. The closer NFLSim's number of correct picks is to the expected number of correct picks, the better NFLSim approximates reality. This is very important, because if you know the exact probability of a team winning, you automatically know if Vegas' payout makes for a good bet or a bad bet. The closer that the predicted probability is to the actual probability, the smarter your bets are. The smarter your bets, the more $ you make! (This is the basis for the Bet Optimization Algorithm.... which is new and much improved this year.)

If we take a look at the first interval, 50-59%, 96 games took place. In theory, you should expect that 55% of those teams predicted to win should actually win. 55% of 96 games, 55% * 96, equals an expected number of wins of 53. NFLSim actually picked 61 winners, so it beat the expected number of wins by 8. This is great because it picked more winners than it was supposed to, but it was pretty far from the expected number of wins. From 60% on is where it gets very, very interesting. NFLSim reaches near theoretical perfection - the probability given by NFLSim is the actual probability that the team will win!!! If anyone has seen this feat achieved by anyone else please let me know.

Here is a table of expected numbers of wins:

	Expected Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	53	61
60-69	46	45
70-79	27	27
80-89	4	4
90-100	2	2
Total	132	139

In the graph: Red is what should have happened, Blue is what did happen.



Now that I've gone through the whole explanation of the stats, I'll skip straight to the numbers.

2. ATS
ATS didn't do as well as straight-up. Looks like it was pretty close to a flip of a coin. The right team would win by the wrong score. I would hate to tamper with the program when the straight-up accuracy is so reliable after 209 games. I'll probably just stop posting ATS until I can fix it up.

ATS	% Interval	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	37	86	43
	60-69	46	78	59
	70-79	18	33	54.5
	80-89	0	3	0
	90-100	1	1	100
	Total	102	201	50.7

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	47	37
60-69	51	46
70-79	25	18
80-89	3	0
90-100	1	1
Total	127	102

Interestingly, the slope of the trend line is almost what it should be. Had 1 of the 80% games won, it would be almost perfect (albeit far lower than it should be). That suggests that all I may need to do is to add/subtract from the calculated probability to arrive at the true probability... interesting. There is back testing to be done!

3. Over/Under
Finally, if you haven't gone to sleep yet, here are the O/U stats. O/U actually did much better than I expected. It performed much better than the ATS and its accuracy approached the expected accuracy.

Over/Under	% Interval	Wins	Games	O/U Win %
	50-59	77	145	53.1
	60-69	30	48	62.5
	70-79	3	6	50
	80-89	2	3	66.7
	90-100	2	2	100
	Total	114	204	55.9

	Exp. Correct	Actual Correct
50-59%	80	77
60-69	31	30
70-79	5	3
80-89	3	2
90-100	2	2
Total	121	114

O/U actually performed very well compared to what was expected. And hell, at 56% accuracy, you'll be making money anyway.












You've seen the performance, you've seen the stats, you know what to expect. What it comes down to:

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Black Box Sports

Week 10: Results

Week 10 was disappointing in terms of ATS and O/U, but NFLSim picked 11-3 straight up, so it wasn't all bad. The 50-59% games really got slammed, but if you read the Midseason Progressive Results post, you wouldn't have bet on them anyway. After this week, 60+% ATS and O/U picks are still 61.3 and 66.7% on the season, respectively.

I just found out about another NFL simulator over at www.whatifsports.com, a division of Fox Sports. Actually, they've got a pretty cool setup. They let you simulate games using teams from different seasons. I can't find their pick record, but someone posted that they are 69.5% straight up and 53.7% ATS on the season. No confidence numbers were available. On the season they beat AccuScore and NFLSim by a few % points, but when picks are made based on confidence, NFLSim has a substantial edge.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	7	85.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	14	78.6%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	9	11.1%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	1	3	33.3%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	3	14	21.4%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	12	33.3%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	5	14	35.7%

Week 10: Predictions

Ok, here's the new format. Same thing as before, but no I add the average scores as well. Underneath the matchup are the average scores. DEN's average score over the course of 500 simulations was 21.25 and CLE's average score was 21.40. Average scores aren't predictions of the score, they're just measures of relative performance. Every once in a while, one team will be favored to win even though on average they score less. This is the case with the DEN game. I wish there was an easier way to cram more stats into each game, but this blog format is really limiting.

I'm also planning on posting games as I finish them. One last change, instead of reposting everything an a "Results" section, i'm going to color everything in the "Prediction" section. A small "Results" section will sum up the weekend.

Only 2 upsets this week, DEN over CLE (52%) and HOU over BAL (57%). More 'UNDER's than usual. More favorites covering the spread, as well.

DEN at CLE -3.5, 45.5
DEN: 21.25
CLE: 21.40
Winner: DEN, 52%
Spread: DEN +3.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

BAL -1 at HOU, 42
BAL: 21.57
HOU: 23.12
Winner: HOU, 57%
Spread: HOU +1, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

BUF at NE -3.5, 41.5
BUF: 22.10
NE: 23.41
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: BUF +3.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

GB at MIN -2, 45.5
GB: 19.95
MIN: 23.45
Winner: MIN, 57%
Spread: MIN -2, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

JAX -6.5 at DET, 44.5
JAX: 24.65
DET: 22.00
Winner: JAX, 56%
Spread: DET +6.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 56%

NO at ATL -1, 50
NO: 22.22
ATL: 26.39
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: ATL -1, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

SEA at MIA -8.5, 43
SEA: 17.19
MIA: 29.42
Winner: MIA, 79%
Spread: MIA -8.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

STL at NYJ -8.5, 44
STL: 19.05
NYJ: 27.06
Winner: NYJ, 70%
Spread: STL +8.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 53%

TEN -3 at CHI, 38.5
TEN: 22.33
CHI: 18.47
Winner: TEN, 60%
Spread: CHI +3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%

CAR -9.5 at OAK, 37.5
CAR: 21.15
OAK: 19.93
Winner: CAR, 54%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 58%

IND at PIT -3.5, 39.5
IND: 17.97
PIT: 22.27
Winner: PIT, 62%
Spread: PIT -3.5, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

KC at SD -15, 47
KC: 18.93
SD: 26.02
Winner: SD, 70%
Spread: KC +15, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 60%

NYG at PHI -3, 43.5
NYG: 18.88
PHI: 25.48
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI -3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 52%

SF at ARI -9.5, 45.5
SF: 20.34
ARI: 24.25
Winner: ARI, 63%
Spread: SF +9.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

Week 9: Predictions

ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%

BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%

TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%

MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%

ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%

DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%

NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%

PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NBA Black Box

With the start of the NBA season on Tuesday, my life just got a little busier, though I can't wait to see if I can repeat the results of last season. For those who haven't checked it out yet, NBA Black Box is the little sister of NFL Black Box (NFL Black Box is the big brother). I began to write a possession-by-possession NBA simulation, but while I worked, I got sidetracked by a few equations I had come up with. NBA Black Box is not a simulation, it is a set of algorithms that work together to pick the straight up and ATS winners. I've given up on the elusive O/U; for some reason, it just doesn't work. There are no plans to finish the simulation - the algorithms are doing just fine.

Here are the results from when I started tracking, on March 1. They exceed my wildest expectation.

SINCE MARCH 1

WINS			PLAYOFFS WINS
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win %
279	353	79.0%	36	48	75.0%
SPREAD			SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win%
242	411	58.9%	32	54	59.3%

Those numbers are correct, check out NBA Black Box to verify. From March 1 to the end of the season, NBA Black Box was 279-74 (79.0%) picking the winner and 242-169 (58.9%) ATS. Similar results for the playoffs. From March 1, using a unit of 100, NBA Black Box returned 5610 units, for a ROI of 12.4%. And that's only after 2 months.

I'm going to track the progress on my own initially (not going to post the results), until I see some consistent performance. It takes time for reliable stats to build up. I have no idea how long that will be. It could be a couple of weeks or it could be a couple of months. The bottom line is I don't want to put unreliable picks up - I don't want people to lose money as a result of bad picks and I don't want to ruin my reputation for making quality predictions.

I'll keep you folks updated as the season continues.

Jonathan

Week 8: Predictions

Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 3: Results

We had a great week 3, 13-3 (81.3%) picking the winner. The 3 games lost were: CHI in OT (after a penalty that literally took the victory from the Bears), IND (even the Colts aren't choke-proof), and finally NE (WTF?). Didn't do so well against the spread, so I'm going to stop posting against the spread for now. As the weeks go by, the simulations will be more accurate.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	3	100.0%
	70-79	4	5	80.0%
	80-89	2	2	100.0%
	90-100	1	2	50.0%
	Total	13	16	81.3%

KC at ATL -5.5
Winner: ATL, 64%
Spread: ATL -5.5, 52%

OAK at BUF -9.5
Winner: BUF, 79%
Spread: BUF -9.5, 55%

TB at CHI -3
Winner: CHI, 55%
Spread: EVEN

CAR at MIN -3
Winner: MIN, 63%
Spread: MIN -3, 54%

MIA at NE -12.5
Winner: NE, 90%
Spread: NE -12.5, 66%

CIN at NYG -13.5
Winner: NYG, 84%
Spread: NYG -13.5, 51%

HOU at TEN -5
Winner: TEN, 87%
Spread: TEN -5, 77%

ARI at WAS -3
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: ARI +3, 61%

DET at SF -4
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF -4, 65%

STL at SEA -9.5
Winner: SEA, 71%
Spread: STL +9.5, 58%

NO at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN, 70%
Spread: DEN -5.5, 57%

PIT at PHI -3.5
Winner: PHI, 62%
Spread: EVEN

JAX at IND -5
Winner: IND, 71%
Spread: IND -5, 55%

CLE at BAL -2.5
Winner: BAL, 97%
Spread: BAL -2.5, 96%

DAL -3 at GB
Winner: DAL, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 59%

NYJ at SD -9
Winner: SD, 53%
Spread: NYJ +9, 75%

Status of this season's picks

Hey Blackboxers (visitors to this site will now be referred to as Blackboxers),

The website www.capperspicks.com has picked me up as a provisional handicapper. They've got a ton of great resources for anyone that's interested in sports betting or just sports in general. Lots of useful features like sportsbook reviews, a parlay calculator, articles on money management, different types of bets, glossary, etc. You can also find stats and trends and whatever you want.

Enough about them, let's talk about me. I'll be posting my picks for free in their forums (not sure which one yet, when I find out, I'll post the link). Also, I'm going to continue to post everything on this website... for FREE!... which will include:

- Predictions of the straight-up winners with confidence number (great for survivor pools)

- Picks ATS and over/under picks with their respective confidences

- Power rankings and ratings for offense, defense, and overall

- I'm going to post the optimal betting strategies which will include suggested bets and parlays, bets to stay away from, etc.

- Also, I got a request from a Blackboxer to post some stats NFLSim generates. These will include: Yards per Pass, Yards per Play, and Yards per Point. Bearing in mind that NFLSim generates more stats than you could ever want (any game stat you can find on the NFL website), I'm willing to oblige requests for the posting of certain stats.

That's all I can think of for now, but I'll be back soon with updates when I think of something else.

If anyone is betting in the preseason, you're crazy, but good luck to ya.