Week 5 Results

It was an OK week, nothing special. Straight up did well at 10-4 (71.4%). BAL and BUF losses were huge surprises, as was the SF loss against ATL, 45-10. Didn't see that one coming. ATS was in profit territory at 7-6 (53.9%). Totals had an off week at 6-6 (50.0%).

Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.


Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.

NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.

This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.

	Results
STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100.0%
60-69	7	5	71.4%
70-79	3	1	33.3%
80-89	2	2	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.4%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50.0%
60-69	3	2	66.7%
70-79	1	0	0.0%
80-89	1	1	100.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.9%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60.0%
60-69	4	1	25.0%
70-79	1	1	100.0%
80-89	2	1	50.0%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50.0%

Week 4 Picks

It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers 

Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5

The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.

I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.

---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!

The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.

Week 2 Results

NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.

The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.


That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.


More analysis under the numbers...

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	5	55.56%
60-69	5	3	60.00%
70-79	1	0	0.00%
80-89	1	1	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	9	56.25%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	6	3	50.00%
60-69	4	3	75.00%
70-79	5	4	80.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	10	66.67%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	4	44.44%
60-69	5	1	20.00%
70-79	1	0	0.00%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	15	5	33.33%

Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
     Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...

Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.

Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!

Week 2 Picks

Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...

Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.

 Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
---

The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.

---

Most of the stats are up.

CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.

---

Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.

There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.

Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...

Week 1 Results

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
 Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!


That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.

Week 1 Picks

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks



Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

Week 11: Stats

Week 11	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.22	5.52	13.70	108.29
Atlanta Falcons	7.93	5.92	14.61	105.39
Baltimore Ravens	6.50	4.44	14.86	82.55
Buffalo Bills	8.03	5.60	12.55	99.65
Carolina Panthers	8.24	5.69	13.04	104.08
Chicago Bears	5.06	4.07	12.73	64.71
Cincinnati Bengals	6.17	4.45	16.77	73.28
Cleveland Browns	6.20	4.53	15.03	83.65
Dallas Cowboys	6.45	4.60	16.68	81.16
Denver Broncos	6.76	5.17	14.54	86.81
Detroit Lions	5.72	4.30	16.50	74.13
Green Bay Packers	7.25	4.97	13.48	94.74
Houston Texans	5.86	4.54	14.02	78.42
Indianapolis Colts	7.94	5.60	13.70	98.65
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.97	4.94	14.82	88.92
Kansas City Chiefs	6.67	5.11	13.90	86.81
Miami Dolphins	7.49	5.42	13.22	94.58
Minnesota Vikings	6.16	4.62	15.26	76.51
New England Patriots	7.15	4.92	12.35	98.34
New Orleans Saints	8.01	5.76	14.63	101.83
New York Giants	6.52	5.00	14.33	81.69
New York Jets	7.34	5.40	15.38	87.26
Oakland Raiders	6.27	4.48	17.35	77.90
Philadelphia Eagles	6.70	4.95	12.76	96.44
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.41	4.86	13.89	95.48
San Diego Chargers	6.95	4.53	13.89	91.91
San Francisco 49ers	6.80	5.20	15.93	83.15
Seattle Seahawks	6.40	4.88	13.35	83.52
St. Louis Rams	5.82	4.31	14.39	76.82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.04	5.09	15.14	93.85
Tennessee Titans	6.50	4.77	13.70	87.08
Washington Redskins	7.25	5.42	12.59	101.63
Average	6.87	4.97	14.35	88.73

Week 8: Sim Stats

Week 8	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	7.06	4.96	15.17	92.37
Atlanta Falcons	6.74	4.80	16.17	83.52
Baltimore Ravens	7.03	5.15	14.10	87.59
Buffalo Bills	8.36	5.15	14.93	105.65
Carolina Panthers	8.00	5.37	12.95	102.12
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals	7.00	4.76	17.17	90.33
Cleveland Browns	5.81	4.45	13.43	78.52
Dallas Cowboys	6.05	4.69	16.03	71.09
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions	6.41	4.90	14.23	81.40
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans	6.99	5.50	11.52	95.98
Indianapolis Colts	6.27	4.37	16.69	76.58
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.33	5.33	13.90	92.84
Kansas City Chiefs	5.83	4.28	13.98	79.56
Miami Dolphins	7.40	5.34	13.38	99.93
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots	8.07	5.77	14.12	103.31
New Orleans Saints	8.70	6.08	15.39	107.64
New York Giants	6.47	4.81	13.82	89.33
New York Jets	7.92	6.26	14.17	97.06
Oakland Raiders	5.71	4.13	15.12	73.03
Philadelphia Eagles	7.14	5.48	11.15	99.34
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.51	4.91	12.27	98.24
San Diego Chargers	7.21	4.93	13.91	91.26
San Francisco 49ers	8.51	5.57	13.33	102.46
Seattle Seahawks	5.59	4.54	13.88	72.59
St. Louis Rams	7.13	5.13	15.31	90.66
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.25	4.52	12.95	89.82
Tennessee Titans	7.04	5.28	12.31	92.63
Washington Redskins	7.86	5.43	12.84	110.53
Simulated Average	7.05	5.07	14.08	91.26

Week 8: Predictions

Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 2 Simulated Stats

I got a request to post yards/pass, yards/play, and yards/point, so here they are. Again, remember that it's early in the season, so there isn't very much information for NFLSim to use. At this point in the season it may be better to use the stats for comparisons rather than to use them as definite predictions. I apologize for the (lack of) formatting of the data tables, if anyone knows how to insert tables from Excel, I'd appreciate some help. I already tried copy and paste. The tables won't be pretty this week, hopefully I'll figure it out for next week.

TEAM YDS/PASS YDS/PLAY YDS/POINT
ARI 8.57 6.00 12.46
ATL 11.25 7.85 12.05
BAL 6.35 5.68 13.01
BUF 7.58 5.74 13.34
CAR 6.17 5.30 11.48
CHI 7.81 5.86 15.83
CIN 5.70 4.57 14.54
CLE 6.59 5.80 16.13
DAL 8.46 6.24 14.48
DEN 8.74 6.95 11.95
DET 6.91 5.66 9.64
GB 10.36 8.26 16.35
HOU 5.95 5.10 13.10
IND 7.18 5.65 13.70
JAX 5.64 4.27 8.48
KC 9.19 6.66 10.71
MIA 7.04 5.26 12.40
MIN 6.40 6.11 13.20
NE 6.75 5.08 12.01
NO 7.86 5.99 12.84
NYG 8.00 6.01 12.37
NYJ 8.38 6.22 12.86
OAK 7.50 6.24 19.02
PHI 7.53 6.02 12.08
PIT 8.30 5.98 10.17
SD 7.54 5.90 14.65
SF 8.34 5.87 12.10
SEA 6.06 4.90 13.90
STL 6.21 5.29 13.59
TB 7.59 6.47 14.01
TEN 6.35 5.48 10.91
WAS 5.61 6.04 14.27

Status of this season's picks

Hey Blackboxers (visitors to this site will now be referred to as Blackboxers),

The website www.capperspicks.com has picked me up as a provisional handicapper. They've got a ton of great resources for anyone that's interested in sports betting or just sports in general. Lots of useful features like sportsbook reviews, a parlay calculator, articles on money management, different types of bets, glossary, etc. You can also find stats and trends and whatever you want.

Enough about them, let's talk about me. I'll be posting my picks for free in their forums (not sure which one yet, when I find out, I'll post the link). Also, I'm going to continue to post everything on this website... for FREE!... which will include:

- Predictions of the straight-up winners with confidence number (great for survivor pools)

- Picks ATS and over/under picks with their respective confidences

- Power rankings and ratings for offense, defense, and overall

- I'm going to post the optimal betting strategies which will include suggested bets and parlays, bets to stay away from, etc.

- Also, I got a request from a Blackboxer to post some stats NFLSim generates. These will include: Yards per Pass, Yards per Play, and Yards per Point. Bearing in mind that NFLSim generates more stats than you could ever want (any game stat you can find on the NFL website), I'm willing to oblige requests for the posting of certain stats.

That's all I can think of for now, but I'll be back soon with updates when I think of something else.

If anyone is betting in the preseason, you're crazy, but good luck to ya.

Welcome Back

Hey guys,

Football season's right around the corner, finally. It's almost time to have some fun with these predictions. Officially, the first week I'll simulate is week 2 (Sept. 14). I need data for the simulation and unfortunately preseason numbers don't work. Although, if anyone's curious, I suppose I can run a few sim's for sh!ts 'n giggles.

Write a comment with your fantasy matchup; specify the home team (or neutral) and let me know if you want me to use numbers from the end of the '07 season or preseason.

More updates will follow as the 2008 NFL season approaches.

p.s. I got a shiny new laptop that runs the program 4x as fast as my old crappy laptop (craptop). This means that I can run even more simulations for each game, making the predictions even more accurate!