Week 4: Results

Here's are the picks from week 4. Not great. It was a good week for the spread (58.3%) and o/u (75%), neither of which I posted. I'm going to put up everything from week 5 forward.

MIN at TEN -3
Winner: TEN, 74%

DEN -9.5 at KC
Winner: DEN, 67%

SF at NO -6
Winner: SF, 65%

ARI at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 54%

GB at TB -1
Winner: TB, 52%

ATL at CAR -7
Winner: ATL, 65%

HOU at JAX -7
Winner: JAX, 54%

CLE at CIN -3.5
Winner: CIN, 78%

SD -7.5 at OAK
Winner: SD, 52%

BUF -8 at STL
Winner: BUF, 82%

WAS at DAL -10.5
Winner: DAL, 60%

PHI -3 at CHI
Winner: PHI, 57%

BAL at PIT -5
Winner: BAL, 55%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	6	66.7%
	60-69	0	4	0.0%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	13	46.2%

Week 3: BOA Results

I'm going to be brief with the results this week. I've had a ton of work this week and I'm a little short on time. BOA was down 78% this week. The probability of all of those teams losing was 0.2%, nice. Watching this go up 65% week 2, down 78% week 4, it tells me that there's too much huge swings. This isn't good for a long term strategy. I'm going to work on it to figure out better risk management. Until then, I'm going to stop posting it.

Week 4: BOA

Now, the increasingly popular Bet Optimization Algorithm (BOA). Things should be more exciting this week since there are 3 underdog picks. That means greater risk and greater rewards (or greater losses). Remember, these are all MONEYLINE bets, they are NOT ATS.

I've noticed that as the number of bets increases, the success of BOA increases, so I'll put up 30 bets this time.

1-TEN, 2-DEN, 3-SF, 4-NYJ, 5-TB, 6-ATL, 7-JAX, 8-CIN, 9-SD, 10-BUF, 11-DAL, 12-PHI, 13-BAL

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
10	82.00%	1.25	5.73%	7.16
8	78.00%	1.53	5.39%	8.25
1	74.00%	1.61	4.90%	7.90
6	65.00%	3.70	4.71%	17.42
3	65.00%	3.00	4.52%	13.56
8,10	63.96%	1.91	3.82%	7.31
6,10	53.30%	4.63	3.66%	16.94
6,8	50.70%	5.66	3.56%	20.15
1,10	60.68%	2.01	3.49%	7.02
3,10	53.30%	3.75	3.46%	12.98
1,8	57.72%	2.46	3.44%	8.47
3,8	50.70%	4.59	3.39%	15.55
2	67.00%	1.21	3.37%	4.07
13	55.00%	2.90	3.35%	9.71
1,6	48.10%	5.96	3.34%	19.89
1,3	48.10%	4.83	3.17%	15.29
3,6	42.25%	11.10	3.14%	34.86
6,8,10	41.57%	7.08	2.82%	19.98
3,8,10	41.57%	5.74	2.66%	15.27
1,6,10	39.44%	7.45	2.65%	19.76
2,6	43.55%	4.48	2.62%	11.74
1,6,8	37.52%	9.11	2.60%	23.69
1,8,10	47.33%	3.08	2.56%	7.89
8,13	42.90%	4.44	2.55%	11.29
12	57.00%	1.59	2.54%	4.04
10,13	45.10%	3.63	2.54%	9.20
3,6,10	34.65%	13.88	2.54%	35.21
6,13	35.75%	10.73	2.52%	27.07
1,3,10	39.44%	6.04	2.49%	15.05
1,3,8	37.52%	7.39	2.46%	18.21

Week 4: Predictions

Here are the week 4 predictions. I'm not putting out the spread picks because I don't think they're accurate enough. As soon as I see some good results, I'll put them out there. Same with the O/U picks.

Most Confident Pick: BUF over STL, 82%; followed by CIN over CLE, 78%
Upset Watch: SF over NO, 65%; ATL over CAR, 65%; BAL over PIT, 55%

MIN at TEN -3
Winner: TEN, 74%

DEN -9.5 at KC
Winner: DEN, 67%

SF at NO -6
Winner: SF, 65%

ARI at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 54%

GB at TB -1
Winner: TB, 52%

ATL at CAR -7
Winner: ATL, 65%

HOU at JAX -7
Winner: JAX, 54%

CLE at CIN -3.5
Winner: CIN, 78%

SD -7.5 at OAK
Winner: SD, 52%

BUF -8 at STL
Winner: BUF, 82%

WAS at DAL -10.5
Winner: DAL, 60%

PHI -3 at CHI
Winner: PHI, 57%

BAL at PIT -5
Winner: BAL, 55%