Fair Moneyline Odds

Here's an excerpt from an earlier post describing what I call "Fair Moneyline Odds" (FMO):

Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.

NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.

In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.

On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.

In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.

*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 =>  (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80

Week 8: Results

This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	7	57.1%
	60-69	4	4	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	12	66.7%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	11	54.5%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	13	53.8%

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 7: Results

I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.

It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.

BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.

By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	6	7	85.7%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	6	16.7%
	60-69	4	7	57.1%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	14	42.9%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	6	66.7%
	70-79	0	0
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	12	50.0%

Week 3: BOA Results

I'm going to be brief with the results this week. I've had a ton of work this week and I'm a little short on time. BOA was down 78% this week. The probability of all of those teams losing was 0.2%, nice. Watching this go up 65% week 2, down 78% week 4, it tells me that there's too much huge swings. This isn't good for a long term strategy. I'm going to work on it to figure out better risk management. Until then, I'm going to stop posting it.

Week 4: BOA

Now, the increasingly popular Bet Optimization Algorithm (BOA). Things should be more exciting this week since there are 3 underdog picks. That means greater risk and greater rewards (or greater losses). Remember, these are all MONEYLINE bets, they are NOT ATS.

I've noticed that as the number of bets increases, the success of BOA increases, so I'll put up 30 bets this time.

1-TEN, 2-DEN, 3-SF, 4-NYJ, 5-TB, 6-ATL, 7-JAX, 8-CIN, 9-SD, 10-BUF, 11-DAL, 12-PHI, 13-BAL

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
10	82.00%	1.25	5.73%	7.16
8	78.00%	1.53	5.39%	8.25
1	74.00%	1.61	4.90%	7.90
6	65.00%	3.70	4.71%	17.42
3	65.00%	3.00	4.52%	13.56
8,10	63.96%	1.91	3.82%	7.31
6,10	53.30%	4.63	3.66%	16.94
6,8	50.70%	5.66	3.56%	20.15
1,10	60.68%	2.01	3.49%	7.02
3,10	53.30%	3.75	3.46%	12.98
1,8	57.72%	2.46	3.44%	8.47
3,8	50.70%	4.59	3.39%	15.55
2	67.00%	1.21	3.37%	4.07
13	55.00%	2.90	3.35%	9.71
1,6	48.10%	5.96	3.34%	19.89
1,3	48.10%	4.83	3.17%	15.29
3,6	42.25%	11.10	3.14%	34.86
6,8,10	41.57%	7.08	2.82%	19.98
3,8,10	41.57%	5.74	2.66%	15.27
1,6,10	39.44%	7.45	2.65%	19.76
2,6	43.55%	4.48	2.62%	11.74
1,6,8	37.52%	9.11	2.60%	23.69
1,8,10	47.33%	3.08	2.56%	7.89
8,13	42.90%	4.44	2.55%	11.29
12	57.00%	1.59	2.54%	4.04
10,13	45.10%	3.63	2.54%	9.20
3,6,10	34.65%	13.88	2.54%	35.21
6,13	35.75%	10.73	2.52%	27.07
1,3,10	39.44%	6.04	2.49%	15.05
1,3,8	37.52%	7.39	2.46%	18.21