Playoffs, Round 3

Round 2 went great at 4-0 ATS and 3-1 O/U. Here's round 3:


Conference Playoffs

NFC Championship


Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

       It's not much of a surprise that the NFC has come down to the Saints and Vikings. The Saints dominated nearly the entire season, starting 13-0 while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game in that period, by far the greatest differential in the League. Their stellar offense, however, is complemented by a not-so-stellar defense: in most categories, New Orleans is simply average. They are 26th in pass yards allowed per game and 21st in rush yards allowed, along with 20th in points allowed. Though the defense as a whole was far from setting any records, Darren Sharper did set an NFL record for most interception yardage in a season, 376, accompanied by 3 int TD's, including a 99 yard pick-6 in week 4 against the Jets.


Love him or hate him, Brett Favre is back for another NFC Championship game, pretty in purple. The Cheeseheads can't be too happy about this one. Let's be honest - aside from a staggeringly old Brett Favre, playing at the top of his game, this is an entirely mediocre team. I can't sugarcoat this one, MIN is 8th in passing yards per game, 13th in rush yards per game. Though, they're 2nd in points scored per game, where it counts. The defense is 30th in total number of tackles, 1st in sacks, 26th in INTs, 5th in fumble recoveries, and 10th in points allowed per game.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between two quarterbacks which will rely very little on their supporting teams. The quarterback that plays better will win the game. And this is going to be a hell of a QB matchup. From week 1, Drew Brees has been a standout. Brees was 1st in QB Rating, TDs, and completion percentage; 2nd in yards per game; 3rd in yards per attempt. He set an NFL record for completion percentage, 70.6% and - wait for it... he actually had a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Patriots. That's amazing.

Old Man Favre has done a great job carrying the Vikings, playing like his days as a young buck in the Packers' Super Bowls. One can't appreciate enough what he's done in Minnesota. Completion %: 68.4*. Yards: 4202. Yds/pass: 7.9*. TDs: 33. INT: 7*. Passer Rating: 107.2*. He throws 4.7 TDs for every 1 INT.

*Career best

NFLSim's Take:

Rushing

Their rushing games are projected to be fairly even. Adrian Peterson has struggled a bit over the past few weeks, and unfortunately, Chester Taylor isn't going to be much help. Likewise, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell aren't expected to have a breakout day. Minnesota and New Orleans both rush 26.9 times for 106.2 and 112.5 yards, respectively. That averages to 4.0 and 4.2 yards per carry. Not much difference there. MIN averages 0.8 TD, NO averages 1.2. That doesn't sound like a lot, but a few points can make a big difference. The probability of a fumble is just about the same for both teams.


Passing
NFLSim gives the passing edge to New Orleans, giving them the (slight) advantage in all categories. Drew Brees is projected to complete 19.2 of 28.6, 67.2%, for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Average yards per pass of 8.2. A great passer rating of 107. Brett Favre completes 19.1 of 30.3, 63.1%, for 225 yards and 1.7 TD. Also a great passer rating of 93.2. Again, there is a slight TD difference of 0.4 TDs.


Overall
The rushing games will be close, but the advantage goes to NO. The passing games will also be close, but again, the advantage goes to NO. However, ultimately, the QBs will decide. If Favre has the better game, MIN wins, if Brees has the better game NO wins.


NFLSim says: NO wins, 60%; NO -3.5, 57%; Under 53, 79%