Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Week 17: Predictions

No picks for week 17. Check back for playoff predictions.

Happy holidays!

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Week 16: Predictions

Son of a bitch, kind of lost track of time. The DAL game will be up tonight, check back later.

Until then, head over to nbablackbox.blogspot.com, lots of games tonight.

BAL at DAL -5, 39
BAL: 20.54
DAL: 19.65
Winner: BAL, 51%
Spread: BAL +5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ARI at NE -7.5, 43.5
ARI: 22.07
NE: 23.66
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: ARI +7.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 55%

CIN at CLE -3, 32.5
CIN: 18.10
CLE: 22.22
Winner: CLE, 54%
Spread: CIN +3, 53%
O/U: OVER, 69%

MIA -4 at KC, 38
MIA: 26.05
KC: 20.01
Winner: MIA, 66%
Spread: MIA -4, 52%
O/U: OVER, 69%

NO -7 at DET, 50.5
NO: 26.51
DET: 19.54
Winner: NO, 69%
Spread: DET +7, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

PIT -2.5 at TEN, 34.5
PIT: 17.12
TEN: 21.17
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: TEN +2.5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 58%

SD at TB -3.5, 42.5
SD: 19.76
TB: 22.82
Winner: TB, 55%
Spread: SD +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

SF -5.5 at STL, 42.5
SF: 20.58
STL: 21.43
Winner: SF, 51%
Spread: STL +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

BUF at DEN -6, 45
BUF: 22.95
DEN: 25.16
Winner: DEN, 56%
Spread: BUF +6, 62%
O/U: OVER, 57%

HOU -7 at OAK, 43.5
HOU: 24.61
OAK: 21.45
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: OAK +7, 61%
O/U: OVER, 55%

NYJ -3.5 at SEA, 41.5
NYJ: 24.57
SEA: 21.97
Winner: NYJ, 59%
Spread: NYJ -3.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 62%

ATL at MIN -3, 43
ATL: 18.99
MIN: 26.17
Winner: MIN, 73%
Spread: MIN -3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

PHI -5.5 at WAS, 37
PHI: 19.06
WAS: 20.88
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: WAS +5.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CAR at NYG -3.5, 36.5
CAR: 20.49
NYG: 22.10
Winner: NYG, 55%
Spread: CAR +3.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 69%

GB at CHI -4, 40.5
GB: 18.61
CHI: 23.44
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: GB +4, 51%
O/U: OVER, 57%

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Week 15: Predictions

Hey everyone, be sure to check out NBA Black Box. NFL Black Box is great and all, but NBA BB is really knocking it out of the park. Over the past 7 days, it's 16-3 ATS (84.2%). On the season, the best picks, the 5-Star picks are 83-43 (65.9%). There are power rankings, too. It's totally free just like NFL BB, so take advantage of it.

May want to be careful with the spread, it's been over-estimating the probability of the underdog covering. In other words, teams that win aren't winning by enough. Which is very strange because the win % is virtually identical to reality (I'll go over that when I post the season's results) and O/U is not far behind. Just to give you an idea, without all of the details, based on confidence % and the number of games in each interval, the expected number straight up wins (oversimplified as the number of wins I should have, if prediction approximates reality), is 110, NFLSim hit 116, so that's pretty close. O/U expected wins is 100, actual is 94, again it's pretty close. Expected ATS wins is 105, though only 80 hit.

What's going on? NFLSim is perfect at assigning probabilities to straight up wins, very good at assigning probabilities to point totals, but the spread has been getting lost somewhere along the way. The right teams are winning, but the winner should be scoring more and the loser less.

Moral of the story: if your system's spread agrees with NFLSim's spread, go for it. Totals seem reliable. For straight up bets, if Vegas's payout is greater than the value of 100/win%, i.e. 100/53 = 1.89 vs. Vegas payout of 1.79, bet on that team to win, whether it's the predicted to win or lose (since win % are so accurate, mathematically, you will make money in the long run).

NO at CHI -3, 45
NO: 20.42
CHI: 23.24
Winner: CHI, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

BUF at NYJ -7, 41
BUF: 20.22
NYJ: 25.19
Winner: NYJ, 61%
Spread: BUF +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DET at IND -17, 45
DET: 17.39
IND: 26.70
Winner: IND, 76%
Spread: DET +17, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

GB -2 at JAX, 45
GB: 23.53
JAX: 21.97
Winner: GB, 56%
Spread: JAX +2, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

SF at MIA -6.5, 41.5
SF: 17.04
MIA: 25.29
Winner: MIA, 73%
Spread: MIA -6.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 51%

TEN -3.5 at HOU , 44.5
TEN: 22.37
HOU: 23.39
Winner: HOU, 52%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

SD -6 at KC, 45.5
SD: 24.06
KC: 22.32
Winner: SD, 56%
Spread: KC +6, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

TB at ATL -3, 44.5
TB: 19.81
ATL: 22.83
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: TB +3, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

DEN at CAR -7.5, 48
DEN: 20.53
CAR: 24.29
Winner: CAR, 59%
Spread: DEN +7.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

NE -7 at OAK, 40
NE: 23.34
OAK: 20.83
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: OAK +7, 68%
O/U: OVER, 62%

WAS -7 at CIN, 36.5
WAS: 22.70
CIN: 17.12
Winner: WAS, 64%
Spread: CIN +7, 64%
O/U: OVER, 59%

PIT at BAL -2, 34.5
PIT: 15.31
BAL: 22.02
Winner: BAL, 68%
Spread: BAL -2, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NYG at DAL -3, 45
NYG: 20.59
DAL: 20.17
Winner: NYG, 52%
Spread: NYG +3, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at ARI -3, 47
MIN: 20.13
ARI: 22.68
Winner: ARI, 58%
Spread: MIN +3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 66%

SEA -2.5 at STL, 43
SEA: 21.90
STL: 22.52
Winner: STL, 51%
Spread: STL +2.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 55%

CLE at PHI -14, 39
CLE: 15.61
PHI: 26.12
Winner: PHI, 80%
Spread: CLE +14, 62%
O/U: OVER, 56%

Straight % Wins Games Win %

50-59 6 10 60.0%

60-69 1 3 33.3%

70-79 2 2 100.0%

80-89 1 1 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 10 16 62.5%





Spread % Wins Games Win %

50-59 3 4 75.0%

60-69 4 9 44.4%

70-79 1 1 100.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 8 14 57.1%





Total
Wins Games Win %

50-59 5 11 45.5%

60-69 3 4 75.0%

70-79 0 0 ---

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 8 15 53.3%

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Week 14: Predictions

First Thanksgiving, now finals. The good news is yesterday was the last class day of the semester. The bad news is finals have begun. I'll try to post as much as possible, but unfortunately school comes before handicapping... or so I'm led to believe...

OAK at SD -9.5, 41.5

OAK: 18.44
SD: 22.79
Winner:
SD, 64%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

ATL at NO -3, 51
ATL: 21.61
NO:
24.89
Winner:
NO, 62%
Spread: NO -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

CIN at IND -13.5, 42
CIN: 17.74
IND:
24.17
Winner:
IND, 69%
Spread: CIN +13.5, 71%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

CLE at TEN -14, 37.5
CLE: 15.64
TEN:
22.50
Winner:
TEN, 69%
Spread: CLE +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at GB -6, 47
HOU: 25.20
GB:
23.44
Winner:
HOU, 55%
Spread: HOU +6, 70%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at CHI -6.5, 40
JAX: 17.68
CHI:
22.77
Winner:
CHI, 64%
Spread: JAX +6.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PHI at NYG -7, 43.5
PHI: 20.46
NYG:
22.23
Winner:
NYG, 56%
Spread: PHI +7, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

KC at DEN -9, 49
KC: 21.85
DEN:
26.00
Winner:
DEN, 65%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

DAL at PIT -3, 40
DAL: 17.88
PIT: 22.37
Winner: PIT, 64%
Spread: PIT -3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

MIA at BUF, 42
MIA: 23.18
BUF: 21.74
Winner: MIA, 53%
Spread: MIA, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%

NYJ -4 at SF, 44.5
NYJ: 23.36
SF: 21.11
Winner: NYJ, 56%
Spread: SF +4, 57%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -4.5 at SEA, 43
NE: 25.50
SEA: 22.72
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: SEA +4.5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 62%

STL at ARI -14, 48.5
STL: 18.45
ARI: 26.02
Winner: ARI, 73%
Spread: STL +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

WAS at BAL -5, 35.5
WAS: 19.83
BAL: 21.00
Winner: BAL, 55%
Spread: WAS +5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 61%

TB at CAR -3, 38
TB: 20.24
CAR: 20.78
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: TB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 52%

Didn't have a chance to post the MIN game. Too bad, considering I hit the winner, spread, and o/u. But, since I didn't post it, these results don't include it. It would have brought the records to 81.3, 56.3, and 68.8% respectively.

Straight % Wins Games Win %

50-59 4 7 57.1%

60-69 7 7 100.0%

70-79 1 1 100.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 12 15 80.0%





Spread % Wins Games Win %

50-59 5 6 83.3%

60-69 2 5 40.0%

70-79 1 4 25.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 8 15 53.3%





Total
Wins Games Win %

50-59 8 11 72.7%

60-69 2 4 50.0%

70-79 0 0 ---

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 10 15 66.7%