Week 5 Picks

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.

***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***

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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
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***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.

Week 1 Picks

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks



Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

NFLSim Stats vs. Actual NFL Stats

I'm sure everyone's curious to see how NFLSim actually compares to real life. These are the overall results so far. First, I'll post the comparison of NFLSim averages to NFL averages. Later, I'll post a team-by-team comparison to see how well it works on a smaller scale. I'm only going to focus on the main stats: passing, rushing, and game stats. I'll put up my average alongside the real stats. When you average the stats from all of the teams, the total offensive averages are the same as the defensive averages.

Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.

I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.

These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.

PASSING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.2	32.4
COMP/G
Average	17.0	19.8
COMP %
Average	62.3%	61.3%
YDS/G
Average	192.2	212.9
YDS/PASS
Average	7.06	6.97
PASS TD/G
Average	1.60	1.30
INT/G
Average	0.79	0.90
SACK/G
Average	2.1	2.1
QB RATING
Average	91.0	83.6

RUSHING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.6	27.3
YDS/G
Average	118.4	112.3
YDS/RUSH
Average	4.3	4.1
RUSH TD/G
Average	1.2	0.9
FUM/G
Average	0.6	0.4

GAME STATS
PTS/G	NFLSim	NFL
Average	22.9	22.2
PLAYS/G
Average	60.3	61.8
TOTAL YDS/G
Average	310.6	325.2
YDS/PLAY
Average	5.2	5.3
3rd DN %
Average	25.8%	39.4%
YDS/PT
Average	13.6	14.9

Week 11: Stats

Week 11	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.22	5.52	13.70	108.29
Atlanta Falcons	7.93	5.92	14.61	105.39
Baltimore Ravens	6.50	4.44	14.86	82.55
Buffalo Bills	8.03	5.60	12.55	99.65
Carolina Panthers	8.24	5.69	13.04	104.08
Chicago Bears	5.06	4.07	12.73	64.71
Cincinnati Bengals	6.17	4.45	16.77	73.28
Cleveland Browns	6.20	4.53	15.03	83.65
Dallas Cowboys	6.45	4.60	16.68	81.16
Denver Broncos	6.76	5.17	14.54	86.81
Detroit Lions	5.72	4.30	16.50	74.13
Green Bay Packers	7.25	4.97	13.48	94.74
Houston Texans	5.86	4.54	14.02	78.42
Indianapolis Colts	7.94	5.60	13.70	98.65
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.97	4.94	14.82	88.92
Kansas City Chiefs	6.67	5.11	13.90	86.81
Miami Dolphins	7.49	5.42	13.22	94.58
Minnesota Vikings	6.16	4.62	15.26	76.51
New England Patriots	7.15	4.92	12.35	98.34
New Orleans Saints	8.01	5.76	14.63	101.83
New York Giants	6.52	5.00	14.33	81.69
New York Jets	7.34	5.40	15.38	87.26
Oakland Raiders	6.27	4.48	17.35	77.90
Philadelphia Eagles	6.70	4.95	12.76	96.44
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.41	4.86	13.89	95.48
San Diego Chargers	6.95	4.53	13.89	91.91
San Francisco 49ers	6.80	5.20	15.93	83.15
Seattle Seahawks	6.40	4.88	13.35	83.52
St. Louis Rams	5.82	4.31	14.39	76.82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.04	5.09	15.14	93.85
Tennessee Titans	6.50	4.77	13.70	87.08
Washington Redskins	7.25	5.42	12.59	101.63
Average	6.87	4.97	14.35	88.73

Week 11: Predictions

Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.

NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%

HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%

SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

Midseason Progressive Results

And now, what everyone's been waiting for. We're about halfway through the season, so I think it's time to post NFLSim's impressive progressive results. I chose to leave out week 2 because It was still too early for me to be making predictions based on 1 week of data. I'm going to post Accuscore's results as well for a comparison. They're the only other play-by-play NFL simulator I know of and they're a well established, well funded, syndicated, sponsored, and mathematically sophisticated operation. David and Goliath? Let's see...

I'm going to give you several different numbers. First, I'll give you the overall numbers, as in the collective 50-100% predictions for winner, spread, and o/u. Then you'll get their numbers broken down. I'll show you weekly trends, % trends, etc.

Overall numbers:
Winner: 65-34 (65.7%)
Spread: 47-45 (51.5%)
O/U: 50-43 (53.8%)
Spread and O/U combined: 97-88 (53.8%)

Accuscore numbers:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)

Accuscore has a slight edge when picking the winner, I have a slight edge picking ATS, and Accuscore has a sizeable advantage picking O/U. BUT! Let's look at how Black Box Sports picks compare when confidence is at least 60%. This confidence is really where NFLSim shines. Here is Black Box Sports's record when the confidence is over 60% compared to Accuscore's overall record (can't find any confidence values for picks). Fasten your seat belts.

Black Box Sports +60%:
Winner: 41-19 (68.3%) ... 22-8 (73.3%) when greater than 70%
Spread: 36-21 (63.2%)
O/U: 21-10 (67.7%)
Spread and O/U: 57-31 (64.7%)
Betting 100 units on the spread and over/under, you made +2290, ROI of 26%, halfway through the season.

Once again, Accuscore's numbers:
Accuscore:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)

Picking the winner, I'm ahead by 1.4% when at least 60% confidence, 6.4% when at least 70% confidence. Spread, I'm ahead by 12.7%. O/U, up by 10.5%. Combined, I'm up by 10.6%. That's what I'm talking about. Not to mention I offer all the picks for free... Spread the word everyone.

In tabular format:

Winner		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	24	39	61.5%
	60-69	19	30	63.3%
	70-79	17	24	70.8%
	80-89	4	4	100.0%
	90-100	1	2	50.0%
	Total	65	99	65.7%
Spread		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	11	35	31.4%
	60-69	24	37	64.9%
	70-79	11	16	68.8%
	80-89	0	3	0.0%
	90-100	1	1	100.0%
	Total	47	92	51.1%
Over		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	29	62	46.8%
	60-69	15	22	68.2%
	70-79	2	4	50.0%
	80-89	2	3	66.7%
	90-100	2	2	100.0%
	Total	50	93	53.8%

S&O/U
	50-59	40	97	41.2%
	60-69	39	59	66.1%
	70-79	13	20	65.0%
	80-89	2	6	33.3%
	90-100	3	3	100.0%
	Total	97	185	52.4%

Graphically:
Theoretically, as in, if NFLSim was a perfect analog of reality, those dashed lines would be perfectly in line with the thick black line. It would mean that the confidence values are always spot on and the games end exactly the way they should. If the trend (dashed) lines are below the thick line, the confidence values are not as accurate as reality. The more parallel the thick and trend lines are, the more accurate the changes in confidenc values are, i.e., as confidence increases, the accuracy increases at the correct rate. If that makes any sense. This graph shows all the picks.


You'll notice that above, the win % for 90-100 is at 50%. In week 3, the 90.03% favorite NE lost to MIA. 0.03% is just about a difference of 1 game in the entire set of hundreds and hundreds of simulated games. Had NE been an 89.97% favorite, the graph would look like this:


Check out the 'Wins' line. The Wins line overlaps the theoretical line. You can't even see it. That's absolutely absurd, especially after 100 games. The trendline has a slope of .09, compared to the theoretical line's .1. The "Wins" trendline has an R-squared value (a measure of how closely the data points fit the line) of 0.89. Absolutely insane. In general, I try to temper my enthusiasm, but this is unbelievable... This means that when NFLSim says a team will win 63% of the time, that team will win 63% of the time. For those of you math-minded people, the expected number of wins is approximately 64.15. The actual number of wins is 65. That blows my mind.

Here's a team-by-team accuracy breakdown:

	Win %	Cover Spread %	Over %
ARI	83.3%	40.0%	50.0%
ATL	66.7%	50.0%	33.3%
BAL	57.1%	42.9%	71.4%
BUF	66.7%	50.0%	66.7%
CAR	83.3%	40.0%	50.0%
CHI	50.0%	50.0%	66.7%
CIN	71.4%	71.4%	33.3%
CLE	42.9%	42.9%	57.1%
DAL	57.1%	57.1%	57.1%
DEN	50.0%	33.3%	20.0%
DET	100.0%	66.7%	40.0%
GB	100.0%	66.7%	66.7%
HOU	71.4%	57.1%	85.7%
IND	33.3%	50.0%	33.3%
JAX	33.3%	66.7%	60.0%
KC	83.3%	66.7%	83.3%
MIA	33.3%	66.7%	50.0%
MIN	83.3%	66.7%	50.0%
NE	33.3%	20.0%	20.0%
NO	66.7%	33.3%	50.0%
NYG	66.7%	16.7%	20.0%
NYJ	71.4%	57.1%	57.1%
OAK	57.1%	14.3%	57.1%
PHI	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%
PIT	50.0%	66.7%	66.7%
SD	83.3%	50.0%	33.3%
SEA	83.3%	50.0%	33.3%
SF	50.0%	33.3%	40.0%
STL	57.1%	50.0%	28.6%
TB	71.4%	42.9%	57.1%
TEN	100.0%	66.7%	83.3%
WAS	42.9%	28.6%	33.3%

I'll post some more stats if I have a chance.
Enjoy!

I'd love to hear everyone's reactions and questions, so don't be shy, send me some emails.

Week 9: Predictions

ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%

BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%

TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%

MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%

ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%

DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%

NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%

PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%