Week 11: Predictions

Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.

NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%

HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%

SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

Week 10: Predictions

Ok, here's the new format. Same thing as before, but no I add the average scores as well. Underneath the matchup are the average scores. DEN's average score over the course of 500 simulations was 21.25 and CLE's average score was 21.40. Average scores aren't predictions of the score, they're just measures of relative performance. Every once in a while, one team will be favored to win even though on average they score less. This is the case with the DEN game. I wish there was an easier way to cram more stats into each game, but this blog format is really limiting.

I'm also planning on posting games as I finish them. One last change, instead of reposting everything an a "Results" section, i'm going to color everything in the "Prediction" section. A small "Results" section will sum up the weekend.

Only 2 upsets this week, DEN over CLE (52%) and HOU over BAL (57%). More 'UNDER's than usual. More favorites covering the spread, as well.

DEN at CLE -3.5, 45.5
DEN: 21.25
CLE: 21.40
Winner: DEN, 52%
Spread: DEN +3.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

BAL -1 at HOU, 42
BAL: 21.57
HOU: 23.12
Winner: HOU, 57%
Spread: HOU +1, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

BUF at NE -3.5, 41.5
BUF: 22.10
NE: 23.41
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: BUF +3.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

GB at MIN -2, 45.5
GB: 19.95
MIN: 23.45
Winner: MIN, 57%
Spread: MIN -2, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

JAX -6.5 at DET, 44.5
JAX: 24.65
DET: 22.00
Winner: JAX, 56%
Spread: DET +6.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 56%

NO at ATL -1, 50
NO: 22.22
ATL: 26.39
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: ATL -1, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

SEA at MIA -8.5, 43
SEA: 17.19
MIA: 29.42
Winner: MIA, 79%
Spread: MIA -8.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

STL at NYJ -8.5, 44
STL: 19.05
NYJ: 27.06
Winner: NYJ, 70%
Spread: STL +8.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 53%

TEN -3 at CHI, 38.5
TEN: 22.33
CHI: 18.47
Winner: TEN, 60%
Spread: CHI +3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%

CAR -9.5 at OAK, 37.5
CAR: 21.15
OAK: 19.93
Winner: CAR, 54%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 58%

IND at PIT -3.5, 39.5
IND: 17.97
PIT: 22.27
Winner: PIT, 62%
Spread: PIT -3.5, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

KC at SD -15, 47
KC: 18.93
SD: 26.02
Winner: SD, 70%
Spread: KC +15, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 60%

NYG at PHI -3, 43.5
NYG: 18.88
PHI: 25.48
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI -3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 52%

SF at ARI -9.5, 45.5
SF: 20.34
ARI: 24.25
Winner: ARI, 63%
Spread: SF +9.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

Week 2 Predictions

I'm going to withhold the total predictions for this week, but I'll put up the winners and spreads. This week's predictions are going to sound ridiculous. I was actually thinking about waiting another week before putting them up, but I went back and looked at the simulation of last season's week 2 to see how they compared. In both weeks 2 there were many picks of huge underdogs, but that week actually turned out to be a very good one. I won't give out that week's exact numbers because I don't want heightened expectations. Remember, use these at your own risk. If you're in a suicide / survivor pool and you see that SF wins 79% when they're a 7 point dog, use some discretion. Bear in mind it's the beginning of the season, so the picks may not be as reliable because of a lack of data. That said, here we go...

If the confidence is 50%, I'll just write EVEN.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Picks Start Week 2

One last reminder... picks start week 2. There aren't going to be any picks tomorrow. There may be an enlightening article in a few days. But no picks until next week, week 2. Keep checking back, though, some other cool stuff might pop up.

Status of this season's picks

Hey Blackboxers (visitors to this site will now be referred to as Blackboxers),

The website www.capperspicks.com has picked me up as a provisional handicapper. They've got a ton of great resources for anyone that's interested in sports betting or just sports in general. Lots of useful features like sportsbook reviews, a parlay calculator, articles on money management, different types of bets, glossary, etc. You can also find stats and trends and whatever you want.

Enough about them, let's talk about me. I'll be posting my picks for free in their forums (not sure which one yet, when I find out, I'll post the link). Also, I'm going to continue to post everything on this website... for FREE!... which will include:

- Predictions of the straight-up winners with confidence number (great for survivor pools)

- Picks ATS and over/under picks with their respective confidences

- Power rankings and ratings for offense, defense, and overall

- I'm going to post the optimal betting strategies which will include suggested bets and parlays, bets to stay away from, etc.

- Also, I got a request from a Blackboxer to post some stats NFLSim generates. These will include: Yards per Pass, Yards per Play, and Yards per Point. Bearing in mind that NFLSim generates more stats than you could ever want (any game stat you can find on the NFL website), I'm willing to oblige requests for the posting of certain stats.

That's all I can think of for now, but I'll be back soon with updates when I think of something else.

If anyone is betting in the preseason, you're crazy, but good luck to ya.