Week 6: Results

Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.


BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	8	50.0%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	1	4	25.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	5	6	83.3%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	1	0.0%
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	14	57.1%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	11	27.3%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	4	14	28.6%

Week 5: Predictions

SEA at NYG -7
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Week 3: BOA Results

I'm going to be brief with the results this week. I've had a ton of work this week and I'm a little short on time. BOA was down 78% this week. The probability of all of those teams losing was 0.2%, nice. Watching this go up 65% week 2, down 78% week 4, it tells me that there's too much huge swings. This isn't good for a long term strategy. I'm going to work on it to figure out better risk management. Until then, I'm going to stop posting it.

Week 4: BOA

Now, the increasingly popular Bet Optimization Algorithm (BOA). Things should be more exciting this week since there are 3 underdog picks. That means greater risk and greater rewards (or greater losses). Remember, these are all MONEYLINE bets, they are NOT ATS.

I've noticed that as the number of bets increases, the success of BOA increases, so I'll put up 30 bets this time.

1-TEN, 2-DEN, 3-SF, 4-NYJ, 5-TB, 6-ATL, 7-JAX, 8-CIN, 9-SD, 10-BUF, 11-DAL, 12-PHI, 13-BAL

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
10	82.00%	1.25	5.73%	7.16
8	78.00%	1.53	5.39%	8.25
1	74.00%	1.61	4.90%	7.90
6	65.00%	3.70	4.71%	17.42
3	65.00%	3.00	4.52%	13.56
8,10	63.96%	1.91	3.82%	7.31
6,10	53.30%	4.63	3.66%	16.94
6,8	50.70%	5.66	3.56%	20.15
1,10	60.68%	2.01	3.49%	7.02
3,10	53.30%	3.75	3.46%	12.98
1,8	57.72%	2.46	3.44%	8.47
3,8	50.70%	4.59	3.39%	15.55
2	67.00%	1.21	3.37%	4.07
13	55.00%	2.90	3.35%	9.71
1,6	48.10%	5.96	3.34%	19.89
1,3	48.10%	4.83	3.17%	15.29
3,6	42.25%	11.10	3.14%	34.86
6,8,10	41.57%	7.08	2.82%	19.98
3,8,10	41.57%	5.74	2.66%	15.27
1,6,10	39.44%	7.45	2.65%	19.76
2,6	43.55%	4.48	2.62%	11.74
1,6,8	37.52%	9.11	2.60%	23.69
1,8,10	47.33%	3.08	2.56%	7.89
8,13	42.90%	4.44	2.55%	11.29
12	57.00%	1.59	2.54%	4.04
10,13	45.10%	3.63	2.54%	9.20
3,6,10	34.65%	13.88	2.54%	35.21
6,13	35.75%	10.73	2.52%	27.07
1,3,10	39.44%	6.04	2.49%	15.05
1,3,8	37.52%	7.39	2.46%	18.21

Week 3: BOA Results

Wow. Things almost couldn't have gone any better. I say this because I'm extremely pleased with how BOA performed this week. It spread out the risk while still offering a high level of reward. 7 of the 9 teams were correct. 10 of the 19 bets were correct. If only Vegas' 12.5 point favorite, my 90% favorite had beaten one of the worst teams in the league, I'd be much, much happier. So for week 3, if you started with a bankroll of $100, you would have lost $14.38, or -14.38%. I hate to play the 'what if' game, but I can't help myself this week. What if the 12.5 pt favorite, NE, had decided to beat MIA? $100 would have turned into $157.79. Fine. There's always next week.

Tracking BOA: Week 2, started with $100. Up 64.62% week 2, down 14.38% week 3.
Initial Investment: $100
Current Investment: $140.95
ROI: 40.95%

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Week 3: BOA

Originally, I decided to put up a simplified version of BOA's results. Bad idea. I'll need to mention a few things first. I chose to leave out bets against the spread and just include moneyline bets, for now. The fundamental reason BOA works is because of inefficiencies in Vegas' line making. After simulating last season, and after extensive backtesting, NFLSim showed a remarkable tendency to assign accurate probability values for games. BOA exploits this. The only way BOA can be successful is if it assigns the correct probabilites to games, enabling for an optimal allocation of funds to different bets with different payouts. The second important point is that every bet is a different amount, based on the difference in those probabilities. Again, I don't feel that the spread predictions have reached that point yet, though I am comfortable with just striaght picking.

At some point I'd like to write up a rigorous mathematical proof showing why this works, but I'll need to meet up with my statistics professor for that.

Before using this table, consider that the season is just beginning; this is only week 3, so the simulations aren't as accurate as they will be. I can't tell you not to bet, but just keep that in mind.

Since Baltimore's win % against Cleveland is so ridiculously high (97%), I decided to run BOA using a more conservative 80%. At 97%, BAL showed up in pretty much every bet. If BAL loses, lots of bets would lose. Better safe than sorry. If you can't tell by now, I like to err on the side of conservatism.

Once more, this is what each heading means:
~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the particular bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll that should be devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)

Here is the team key, each number corresponds to a particular bet. 1-ATL means that when you see the number 1, it means bet on ATL to win. If you see 5,7, it means parlay NE and TEN.

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Alright, let's look at this. That table is based on a bankroll of $100. One of the other reasons BOA works is because it spreads risk over numerous bets in a way such that if one bet fails, other bets can still keep you afloat. If you don't feel like making 19 bets, my advice would be to scale the bets that you do make. If you only want to make the top 5 bets, for example, add the top 5 "% BANKROLLs" together. To find the new percentage to bet, divide that bet's "% BANKROLL" by the sum of the 5 "% BANKROLLs". So... 7.21+6.94+6.2+6.12+5.79 = 32.25. Bet 1 will be 7.21/32.25 = 22.36%. Bet 2 will be 6.94/32.35 = 21.51%, and so on. All 5 percentages should add up to 100%.

As you decrease the number of bets, you increase the amount of risk. For example, if you bet all 19 bets and and all teams win except 5-NE, which has a 90% confidence, you will lose 7.91% of your bankroll. If you decide to only bet the top 5 bets, you'll lose 22.36%. It's about all about your tolerance for risk, which is yours to figure out.

I hope this makes everyone happy. If not, send me some angry emails.

Just a Reminder...

Just a reminder, everyone: The predictions begin week 2, that's Sunday, Sept. 14. Since I need numbers to use in the simulation, I can't simulate week 1. I hate the wait but I'd rather hold off a week than B.S. some results and risk getting off to a bad start.

So keep coming back to NFL Black Box, I'll be posting a new article soon. If anyone has a question they'd like answered, send it in. Else, I'll think of something interesting to write about.


Jonathan
Black Box Sports

P.S. Sweet new logo, right?

Status of this season's picks

Hey Blackboxers (visitors to this site will now be referred to as Blackboxers),

The website www.capperspicks.com has picked me up as a provisional handicapper. They've got a ton of great resources for anyone that's interested in sports betting or just sports in general. Lots of useful features like sportsbook reviews, a parlay calculator, articles on money management, different types of bets, glossary, etc. You can also find stats and trends and whatever you want.

Enough about them, let's talk about me. I'll be posting my picks for free in their forums (not sure which one yet, when I find out, I'll post the link). Also, I'm going to continue to post everything on this website... for FREE!... which will include:

- Predictions of the straight-up winners with confidence number (great for survivor pools)

- Picks ATS and over/under picks with their respective confidences

- Power rankings and ratings for offense, defense, and overall

- I'm going to post the optimal betting strategies which will include suggested bets and parlays, bets to stay away from, etc.

- Also, I got a request from a Blackboxer to post some stats NFLSim generates. These will include: Yards per Pass, Yards per Play, and Yards per Point. Bearing in mind that NFLSim generates more stats than you could ever want (any game stat you can find on the NFL website), I'm willing to oblige requests for the posting of certain stats.

That's all I can think of for now, but I'll be back soon with updates when I think of something else.

If anyone is betting in the preseason, you're crazy, but good luck to ya.

Superbowl XLII Bets

Here are hypothetical bets that would have been placed on the Super Bowl. I've used alternative spreads in addition to the normal spread to add some extra betting opportunities. Also the weird bet amounts come from an algorithm I developed which is used to determine bet size based on predicted %, payout, and bankroll. Sometimes it even has you on both sides of a bet, hedging yourself. Very interesting... here they are: (also bet amounts are in terms of percentages of your bankroll)

In order of best bet to good bet, starting with single bets.

Over/Under:
Under 53.5: 82%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 12.98
Win: 24.80

Spreads:
NYG +17.5: 77%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 10.75
Win: 14.62

NYG +15.5: 72%
Payout: 1.5
Bet Amount: 9.54
Win: 14.31

NE Win: 67%
Payout: 1.24
Bet Amount: 7.87
Win: 9.76

NYG +11.5: 63%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 7.81
Win: 14.91

NYG +7.5: 54%
Payout: 2.4
Bet Amount: 6.23
Win: 14.96

NYG +5.5: 44%
Payout: 2.85
Bet Amount: 4.36
Win: 12.42

NE -5.5: 56%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 4.23
Win: 5.75

Parlays:
Under 53.5, NYG +17.5: 63%
Payout: 2.6
Bet Amount: 8.76
Win: 22.75

Under 53.5, NYG +15.5: 59%
Payout: 2.87
Bet Amount: 8.01
Win: 22.93

Under 53.5, NYG +11.5: 52%
Payout: 3.65
Bet Amount: 6.87
Win: 25.07

Under 53.5, NE Win: 56%
Payout: 2.37
Bet Amount: 6.84
Win: 16.21

Under 53.5, NYG +7.5: 44%
Payout: 4.58
Bet Amount: 5.75
Win: 26.35

Summary:
After looking at the different bets, it becomes clear that the most likely outcome of the game was a close, low scoring affair. While NE was still predicted to win, their slim margin of victory opened up a myriad of betting opportunities.

The numerical results:
Had you started the day off with $100, by the end of the day you'd have $193.12 and a smile on your face.

2007 Results, Analysis, and Betting Applications

Well, since starting back in week 12, I'd say I've gotten some pretty good results. Now before everyone starts yelling at me, I'll preempt it by saying that yes, I know it was only a quarter of the season, and yes, I know that for the spread and o/u it was only a few games. At this point the results may be statistically inconclusive, but it's a start. I worked with what was available- the program was 'completed' in time for week 12. Up until the playoffs, changes were being made to achieve a greater degree of realism. Those changes in no way affected either team exclusively, they affected both teams in exactly the same way.

The results for the playoffs and Super Bowl:

Wins: 4-7 36.4%
Spread: 5-2 71.4%
O/U: 6-1 85.7%

The Law of Any Given Sunday proved too much for me. Though you can't argue with a spread/ o/u combined win percentage of 78.6%


The results for the 2007 regular season, weeks 12 through 16:

Straight-up Wins	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	34	21	61.8%
	60-69	29	19	65.5%
	70-79	14	11	78.6%
	80-89	3	3	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	80	54	67.5%

This is a graph of the above table. It shows the astonishing correlation between the predicted percentages and the real win percentages. The x-axis shows the different % Ranges- like in the tables. The y-axis is the win percentage. So the predicted range 50-59% has a real win percentage of 61.8%. The straight, dark line shows what would happen if all of the teams won exactly as they were supposed to, according to my predicted percentage. Lets say I pick 100 teams to win, and they all fall in 50-59. If my system was perfect, about 55% of those teams would actually win. Since the green line (what actually happened) is so similar to the black line, we're able to conservatively assume that the predicted percentage to win is the same as the real percentage of a straight up win.


Now that we know the probability of a team winning, all of a sudden the moneyline completely opens up. Now we can look at what Vegas is offering and immediately know if it's a statistically favorable or unfavorable bet.

If you have $100 and you make 100 bets at 50% each, and each bets pays out 2:1, then after your 100 bets, you've won 50 of them. Since they pay out 2:1, you've made it back to $100, breaking even. Likewise, if you have $100 and you make 100 bets with a probability of 20%, to break even, each bet must pay 5:1. If each bet pays 4:1, you've won 20 bets, but at 4:1, you only make it back to $80, so you've lost money. At 6:1 you get up to $120. Break-even odds are neutral- in the long run you don't make money, and you don't lose money. We only make bets that are above break-even.

Let's look at the Super Bowl. The Giants were 11.5 dogs. Vegas was offering to pay out 4.25 to 1. The probability that the Giants would win- as calculated by me- was 33%. If you win 33% of your bets, each bet must pay out 3.03:1 (Break-even payout = 1/percentage in decimal form; 1/.33 = 3.03). So, since you need at least 3.03:1 odds to make an intelligent bet, you note that Vegas wants to give you 4.25. 4.25 is bigger than 3.03 so you bet on the Giants to win. And if you had bet on the Giants to win, you'd be one happy camper right now.

Note: If you bet in this manner using a reliable source of percentages, sensible money management, and patience, you'll be successful in the long run...with the moneyline! And it doesn't hurt when you're picking 68% of the games correctly... Of course this also works with the spread and o/u.

PLAYOFFS/SUPERBOWL w/ Spread and O/U

Playoff Rd 1	Win %
WAS
SEA	71%
JAX
PIT	66%
NYG
TB	68%
TEN
SD	59%

Wins: 2-2 50%


Spread and Over/Under were finally completed!
For spread and o/u, the percentage is the chance that the favorite team would cover the spread and that the total points would exceed the over. If the percentage for the spread is above 50%, if the favorite covers the spread, it's a win (green); if the favorite doesn't cover the spread, it's a loss (red). For a percentage below 50%, the favorite probably won't cover the spread. So if the favorite covers the spread, it's a loss; if the spread is not covered, it's a win.
To summarize: if the spread and over are above 50% (probably will happen) and the spread is covered and the points exceed the over, they are wins. If they are under 50% (cover and over probably won't happen) and the spread is not covered and the points fall below the over, they are wins. Visa versa for losses.

Example: SEA was projected to win 53%. They lost, so Win is red. The spread was predicted to be covered 27%. It was covered, against the probability, so it was a loss. The over was predicted 65%. Since the actual score went over the line, it was a win.

Playoff Rd 2	Win %	Cover Spread %	Over %
SEA	53%	27%	65%
GB
JAX
NE	63%	31%	53%
SD
IND	69%	46%	22%
NYG
DAL	72%	49%	45%

Wins: 1-3 25%
Spread: 3-1 75%
O/U: 3-1 75%

Playoff Rd 3	Win %	Cover Spread %	Over %
SD
NE	71%	33%	47%
NYG
GB	64%	41%	61%

Wins: 1-1 50%
Spread: 2-0 100%
O/U: 2-0 100%

Superbowl	Win %	Cover Spread %	Over %
NYG
NE	67%	56%	20%

Wins: 0-1 0%
Spread: 0-1 0%
O/U: 1-0 100%

WEEK 16

Week 16	Win %
PIT	57%
STL
DAL	63%
CAR
NYG	51%
BUF
GB	66%
CHI
CLE
CIN	59%
KC
DET	59%
HOU
IND	73%
PHI
NO	62%
OAK
JAX	60%
ATL
ARI	51%
TB	58%
SF
NYJ
TEN	60%
MIA
NE	71%
BAL
SEA	70%
WAS
MIN	72%
DEN
SD	55%

Total	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	7	6	85.7%
	60-69	5	3	60.0%
	70-79	4	3	75.0%
	80-89	0	0	0.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	16	12	75.0%

WEEK 15

Week 15	Win %
DEN	54%
HOU
CIN
SF	54%
BUF	53%
CLE
TEN
KC	64%
GB	56%
STL
BAL
MIA	54%
NYJ
NE	71%
ARI
NO	77%
JAX
PIT	72%
ATL
TB	70%
SEA	55%
CAR
IND	62%
OAK
PHI
DAL	69%
DET
SD	58%
WAS
NYG	66%
CHI
MIN	69%

Total	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	7	4	57.1%
	60-69	5	2	40.0%
	70-79	4	3	75.0%
	80-89	0	0	0.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	16	9	56.3%

WEEK 14

Week 14	Win %
CHI
WAS	60%
MIA
BUF	64%
STL	51%
CIN
DAL	64%
DET
OAK
GB	57%
SD	54%
TEN
NYG
PHI	57%
CAR
JAX	60%
TB	58%
HOU
MIN	66%
SF
ARI
SEA	82%
KC
DEN	62%
PIT
NE	54%
CLE
NYJ	63%
IND	61%
BAL
NO
ATL	58%

Total	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	7	3	42.9%
	60-69	8	7	87.5%
	70-79	0	0	0.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	16	11	68.8%

WEEK 13

Week 13	Win %
GB
DAL	63%
HOU
TEN	59%
JAX
IND	79%
SD
KC	54%
ATL
STL	66%
NYJ
MIA	63%
DET
MIN	55%
SEA
PHI	60%
BUF
WAS	63%
SF
CAR	61%
DEN	51%
OAK
CLE
ARI	61%
NYG	51%
CHI
TB
NO	53%
CIN
PIT	80%
NE	65%
BAL

Total	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	6	3	50.0%
	60-69	8	5	62.5%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	16	10	62.5%