Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.

Week 1 Results

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
 Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!


That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.

Week 11: Predictions

Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.

NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%

HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%

SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

Week 9: Predictions

ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%

BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%

TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%

MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%

ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%

DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%

NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%

PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%

Week 8: Predictions

Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 7: Results

I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.

It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.

BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.

By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	6	7	85.7%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	6	16.7%
	60-69	4	7	57.1%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	14	42.9%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	6	66.7%
	70-79	0	0
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	12	50.0%

Week 7: Predictions

Here are the week 7 predictions. Upsets include: MIN, GB, OAK, DEN.
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Week 6: Results

Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.


BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	8	50.0%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	1	4	25.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	5	6	83.3%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	1	0.0%
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	14	57.1%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	11	27.3%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	4	14	28.6%

Week 6: Predictions

Better late than never.

Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.

BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Week 5: Predictions

SEA at NYG -7
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Week 4: Results

Here's are the picks from week 4. Not great. It was a good week for the spread (58.3%) and o/u (75%), neither of which I posted. I'm going to put up everything from week 5 forward.

MIN at TEN -3
Winner: TEN, 74%

DEN -9.5 at KC
Winner: DEN, 67%

SF at NO -6
Winner: SF, 65%

ARI at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 54%

GB at TB -1
Winner: TB, 52%

ATL at CAR -7
Winner: ATL, 65%

HOU at JAX -7
Winner: JAX, 54%

CLE at CIN -3.5
Winner: CIN, 78%

SD -7.5 at OAK
Winner: SD, 52%

BUF -8 at STL
Winner: BUF, 82%

WAS at DAL -10.5
Winner: DAL, 60%

PHI -3 at CHI
Winner: PHI, 57%

BAL at PIT -5
Winner: BAL, 55%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	6	66.7%
	60-69	0	4	0.0%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	13	46.2%

Week 4: BOA

Now, the increasingly popular Bet Optimization Algorithm (BOA). Things should be more exciting this week since there are 3 underdog picks. That means greater risk and greater rewards (or greater losses). Remember, these are all MONEYLINE bets, they are NOT ATS.

I've noticed that as the number of bets increases, the success of BOA increases, so I'll put up 30 bets this time.

1-TEN, 2-DEN, 3-SF, 4-NYJ, 5-TB, 6-ATL, 7-JAX, 8-CIN, 9-SD, 10-BUF, 11-DAL, 12-PHI, 13-BAL

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
10	82.00%	1.25	5.73%	7.16
8	78.00%	1.53	5.39%	8.25
1	74.00%	1.61	4.90%	7.90
6	65.00%	3.70	4.71%	17.42
3	65.00%	3.00	4.52%	13.56
8,10	63.96%	1.91	3.82%	7.31
6,10	53.30%	4.63	3.66%	16.94
6,8	50.70%	5.66	3.56%	20.15
1,10	60.68%	2.01	3.49%	7.02
3,10	53.30%	3.75	3.46%	12.98
1,8	57.72%	2.46	3.44%	8.47
3,8	50.70%	4.59	3.39%	15.55
2	67.00%	1.21	3.37%	4.07
13	55.00%	2.90	3.35%	9.71
1,6	48.10%	5.96	3.34%	19.89
1,3	48.10%	4.83	3.17%	15.29
3,6	42.25%	11.10	3.14%	34.86
6,8,10	41.57%	7.08	2.82%	19.98
3,8,10	41.57%	5.74	2.66%	15.27
1,6,10	39.44%	7.45	2.65%	19.76
2,6	43.55%	4.48	2.62%	11.74
1,6,8	37.52%	9.11	2.60%	23.69
1,8,10	47.33%	3.08	2.56%	7.89
8,13	42.90%	4.44	2.55%	11.29
12	57.00%	1.59	2.54%	4.04
10,13	45.10%	3.63	2.54%	9.20
3,6,10	34.65%	13.88	2.54%	35.21
6,13	35.75%	10.73	2.52%	27.07
1,3,10	39.44%	6.04	2.49%	15.05
1,3,8	37.52%	7.39	2.46%	18.21

Week 4: Predictions

Here are the week 4 predictions. I'm not putting out the spread picks because I don't think they're accurate enough. As soon as I see some good results, I'll put them out there. Same with the O/U picks.

Most Confident Pick: BUF over STL, 82%; followed by CIN over CLE, 78%
Upset Watch: SF over NO, 65%; ATL over CAR, 65%; BAL over PIT, 55%

MIN at TEN -3
Winner: TEN, 74%

DEN -9.5 at KC
Winner: DEN, 67%

SF at NO -6
Winner: SF, 65%

ARI at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 54%

GB at TB -1
Winner: TB, 52%

ATL at CAR -7
Winner: ATL, 65%

HOU at JAX -7
Winner: JAX, 54%

CLE at CIN -3.5
Winner: CIN, 78%

SD -7.5 at OAK
Winner: SD, 52%

BUF -8 at STL
Winner: BUF, 82%

WAS at DAL -10.5
Winner: DAL, 60%

PHI -3 at CHI
Winner: PHI, 57%

BAL at PIT -5
Winner: BAL, 55%

Week 3: BOA

Originally, I decided to put up a simplified version of BOA's results. Bad idea. I'll need to mention a few things first. I chose to leave out bets against the spread and just include moneyline bets, for now. The fundamental reason BOA works is because of inefficiencies in Vegas' line making. After simulating last season, and after extensive backtesting, NFLSim showed a remarkable tendency to assign accurate probability values for games. BOA exploits this. The only way BOA can be successful is if it assigns the correct probabilites to games, enabling for an optimal allocation of funds to different bets with different payouts. The second important point is that every bet is a different amount, based on the difference in those probabilities. Again, I don't feel that the spread predictions have reached that point yet, though I am comfortable with just striaght picking.

At some point I'd like to write up a rigorous mathematical proof showing why this works, but I'll need to meet up with my statistics professor for that.

Before using this table, consider that the season is just beginning; this is only week 3, so the simulations aren't as accurate as they will be. I can't tell you not to bet, but just keep that in mind.

Since Baltimore's win % against Cleveland is so ridiculously high (97%), I decided to run BOA using a more conservative 80%. At 97%, BAL showed up in pretty much every bet. If BAL loses, lots of bets would lose. Better safe than sorry. If you can't tell by now, I like to err on the side of conservatism.

Once more, this is what each heading means:
~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the particular bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll that should be devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)

Here is the team key, each number corresponds to a particular bet. 1-ATL means that when you see the number 1, it means bet on ATL to win. If you see 5,7, it means parlay NE and TEN.

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Alright, let's look at this. That table is based on a bankroll of $100. One of the other reasons BOA works is because it spreads risk over numerous bets in a way such that if one bet fails, other bets can still keep you afloat. If you don't feel like making 19 bets, my advice would be to scale the bets that you do make. If you only want to make the top 5 bets, for example, add the top 5 "% BANKROLLs" together. To find the new percentage to bet, divide that bet's "% BANKROLL" by the sum of the 5 "% BANKROLLs". So... 7.21+6.94+6.2+6.12+5.79 = 32.25. Bet 1 will be 7.21/32.25 = 22.36%. Bet 2 will be 6.94/32.35 = 21.51%, and so on. All 5 percentages should add up to 100%.

As you decrease the number of bets, you increase the amount of risk. For example, if you bet all 19 bets and and all teams win except 5-NE, which has a 90% confidence, you will lose 7.91% of your bankroll. If you decide to only bet the top 5 bets, you'll lose 22.36%. It's about all about your tolerance for risk, which is yours to figure out.

I hope this makes everyone happy. If not, send me some angry emails.

Week 2 Analysis

I'm not gonna lie, week 2 didn't go too well. Though that's not so surprising considering the nature of simulations - accuracy increases as the amount of data increases. Win = Green, Loss = Red, Push = Blue.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	2	0.0%
	90-100	1	1	100.0%
	Total	8	15	53.3%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	1	0.0%
	60-69	0	3	0.0%
	70-79	2	4	50.0%
	80-89	2	3	66.7%
	90-100	0	1	0.0%
	Total	4	12	33.3%