Week 1 Results

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
 Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!


That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.