Week 3 Picks

Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:

Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.

***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed


Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
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Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.

7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:

Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)

Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)

Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)

Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...

Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
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I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.