Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
---
Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.
---
Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.
A match-up analysis to follow...
Showing posts with label NFL Sim Capper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Sim Capper. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Week 7 Results
I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
Week 6:
Week 7:
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
| STRAIGHT UP | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% | |
| ATS | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.85% | |
| O/U | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% | |
Week 6:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.14% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 8 | 61.54% |
Week 7:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6 | 66.67% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 10 | 76.92% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 6 | 46.15% |
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Week 5 Results
It was an OK week, nothing special. Straight up did well at 10-4 (71.4%). BAL and BUF losses were huge surprises, as was the SF loss against ATL, 45-10. Didn't see that one coming. ATS was in profit territory at 7-6 (53.9%). Totals had an off week at 6-6 (50.0%).
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
Monday Night Matchup Review
Henne really surprised me, throwing a very impressive 20/26 (76.9%), 9.3 yds/att, 2 TDs and 0 INT. NFLSim NAILED Mark Sanchez. NFLSim projection: 14/24, 175 yards, 7.4 yds/att, 1.5 TDs, 0.9 INT, rating of 87. Actual stats: 12/24, 172 yards, 7.2 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT, rating of 87.5. How awesome is that??? Rating to within 0.5. Rushing stats weren't as close but they were still pretty good.
Fantasy Review
NFLSim Top 5 QBs (Actual Rank / Yards / TDs / Ints):
1. Peyton Manning (4 / 309 yards / 3 TD/ 1 INT)
2. Donovan McNabb (3 / 264 / 3 / 0)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (7 / 277 / 3 / 1)
4. Matt Schaub (5 / 371 / 2 / 1)
5. Matt Hasselbeck (2 / 241 / 4 / 0)
Average: (292 / 3 / 0.6)
That's 22 Yahoo! points.
NFLSim Top 5 Defenses (Actual Rank / Points allowed / Turnovers / Defensive TDs):
1. Baltimore Ravens (4 / 17 / 2 / 1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7 / 14 / 3 / 0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2 / 10 / 4 / 1)
4. Denver Broncos (20 / 17 / 1 / 0)
5. New York Giants (5 / 7 / 3 / 0)
Average: (13 / 2.6 / 0.4)
12 Points for Defense, not too shabby.
This week's lesson: you don't need to use the predictions but the Fantasy projections are money.
| Results | |||
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.9% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Week 5 Picks
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
---
Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
---
Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
---
Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.
***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***
---
Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
---
Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
---
Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Week 4 Picks
It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Week 3 Picks
Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
