Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.

Week 4 Picks

It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers 

Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
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DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5

The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.

I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.

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FANTASY FOOTBALL!!

The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.