In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.
Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results
On to week 7 results:
Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:
Week 5:
| STRAIGHT UP | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 1 | 33.33% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% | |
| ATS | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 13 | 7 | 53.85% | |
| O/U | ||||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1 | 25% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 1 | 50% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% | |
Week 6:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 6 | 4 | 66.67% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 10 | 71.43% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 14 | 8 | 57.14% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 8 | 61.54% |
Week 7:
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6 | 66.67% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 10 | 76.92% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 50% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 13 | 6 | 46.15% |
Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%.
Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!
Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!
Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.
If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.
