Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.