Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Week 5 Picks

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.

***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***

---
Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
---
***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
---
Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
---

Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.

5 comments:

  1. Nice site. Keep up the good work, the numbers will only get better as the season goes on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great site, keep up the good work

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks, guys. If you think of any improvements or if there's anything else you want to see, definitely let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Sim,

    I've been following you for over a year, love the site! I have been trying to think of the optimal betting strategy to use with you percentages. It looks like what was brought up two weeks ago, using teasers, could be a great bet. Using your top 3 picks each week as a 10 point teaser looks like it would have won every week so far this season. Would you be able to backtest that? My prediciton is you would be well over 90%. Thanks Sim. If your busy and have a overal results spreadsheet, I could run it for you.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kenny,

    First, thanks for coming to the site for so long! I hope you're diggin' the changes and progression of everything.

    I've been pretty busy lately but that's definitely something worth looking into. I can put together weekly records given a 10 pt teaser, maybe 6 and 7 as well.

    Or... if anyone else feels like doing that and sharing the results, that'd be awesome. Either way, I should be able to get those up within a few days. I've been meaning to put up some overall results, I'll do that too.

    Sim Capper

    ReplyDelete