Sorry about the delay, folks. You never realize how much the internet means to you until it's gone.
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
---
It's 7:30am and the spreadsheet is finished.
---
The Fantasy rankings have been doing really well so I'm going to highlight them here as well as in the 'Fantasy Projection' tab in the spreadsheet:
Top 5 Passing Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
Top 5 Rushing
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Kickers
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Oakland Raiders
Top 5 Defenses
1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills
5. New Orleans Saints
---
Some of the picks and confidence were changed (most remained the same) at 10am. Double check em' if you want to.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Is the Dallas/ATL game correct? You have Dallas winning at 59%, but beating the 3.5 point spread by 72%
ReplyDeleteIt's correct...
ReplyDeleteI've started making adjustments to the spreads because they were having some trouble. The short answer: underdogs were given way too much of a chance to beat the spread.
The long answer: the average scores NFLSim produces are to within 1 or 2 pts of the actual NFL averages. However, the standard deviation of NFLSim's scores is a little less than half that of actual scores. This means that on average, NFLSim's point differentials for each game are small enough that the underdog covers too often.
At the same time, NFLSim is doing really well picking straight up - remember, I'm going for accurate probabilities, not necessarily overall accuracy.
To fix the problem, I keep the straight up predictions the same to preserve the straight up accuracy and I make adjustments to the spread predictions to compensate for the underdog problem.
Over the first few weeks of the season it would have made a significant difference, though the past few weeks it hasn't really had an effect,one way or the other.
So that's why DAL is 59% SU and 72% ATS. Hope that answered your question.