Friday, October 31, 2008

Week 9: Predictions

ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner:
ARI, 51%
Spread:
STL +3, 61%
O/U:
OVER, 54%

BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner:
BAL, 59%
Spread:
BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U:
OVER, 53%

DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner:
CHI, 79%
Spread:
DET +13, 64%
O/U:
OVER, 61%

GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner:
TEN, 64%
Spread:
GB +5.5, 53%
O/U:
UNDER, 51%

HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner:
MIN, 51%
Spread:
HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner:
JAX, 59%
Spread:
CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U:
OVER, 61%

NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner:
BUF, 66%
Spread:
BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U:
OVER, 55%

TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner:
TB, 60%
Spread:
KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%

MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner:
MIA, 56%
Spread:
MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%

ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner:
OAK, 54%
Spread:
OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%

DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner:
NYG, 79%
Spread:
DAL +9, 54%
O/U:
UNDER, 58%

PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner:
PHI, 76%
Spread:
SEA +7, 52%
O/U:
OVER, 60%

NE at IND -6, 44
Winner:
NE, 57%
Spread:
NE +6, 74%
O/U:
OVER, 58%

PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner:
WAS, 67%
Spread:
WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U:
OVER, 54%

Week 9: Fun Facts

Upsets: BAL over CLE (59%), MIA over DEN (56%), OAK over ATL (54%), NE over IND (57%)
Blowouts: CHI over DET (79.2%), NYG over DAL (78.8%)
Close Calls: ARI over STL (50.7%), MIN over HOU (50.9%)
Most Points: PHI
Fewest Points: DAL
Most Total Yards: MIA, 379.3 yards
Fewest Total Yards: CLE, 251.2 yards
Best QB: Kyle Orton (CHI), 114.8 rating
Worst QB: Brad Johnson (DAL), 72.3 rating
Top Rushing Team: TEN, 154.4 yards
Worst Rushing Team: ARI, 79.8 yards
Most Takeaways: JAX
Longest Time of Possession: CHI
Most Punts: DAL, 5.3
Fewest Punts: MIA, 3.7
Most Plays: TB, 68
Fewest Plays: STL, 56

Week 9 YDS/PASS YDS/PLAY YDS/PT QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals 8.00 5.57 13.65 101.53
Atlanta Falcons 6.76 5.10 14.76 86.10
Baltimore Ravens 6.54 4.72 15.27 84.46
Buffalo Bills 7.58 5.00 11.77 103.39
Carolina Panthers



Chicago Bears 8.74 5.80 12.37 114.84
Cincinnati Bengals 7.12 5.12 14.24 89.59
Cleveland Browns 6.16 4.51 14.43 75.74
Dallas Cowboys 5.97 4.29 16.73 72.27
Denver Broncos 8.25 5.77 14.05 102.46
Detroit Lions 6.15 4.59 14.93 79.76
Green Bay Packers 6.71 4.63 15.30 87.76
Houston Texans 7.20 4.88 13.32 95.11
Indianapolis Colts 7.65 5.46 13.43 92.97
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.76 4.68 12.52 98.28
Kansas City Chiefs 6.23 4.82 14.72 77.92
Miami Dolphins 8.37 5.85 13.58 114.15
Minnesota Vikings 7.46 5.68 14.05 91.74
New England Patriots 6.87 4.80 12.27 97.46
New Orleans Saints



New York Giants 7.04 5.33 13.16 98.93
New York Jets 6.88 5.05 16.27 87.71
Oakland Raiders 6.65 5.38 12.99 87.62
Philadelphia Eagles 7.92 5.55 12.66 109.18
Pittsburgh Steelers 6.14 4.18 15.47 80.32
San Diego Chargers



San Francisco 49ers



Seattle Seahawks 6.28 4.74 14.82 75.86
St. Louis Rams 7.88 5.52 12.08 103.17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.54 5.25 15.26 87.36
Tennessee Titans 5.87 5.00 12.72 75.19
Washington Redskins 7.32 5.05 13.41 99.88





Average 7.04 5.08 13.94 91.81

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

NBA Black Box

With the start of the NBA season on Tuesday, my life just got a little busier, though I can't wait to see if I can repeat the results of last season. For those who haven't checked it out yet, NBA Black Box is the little sister of NFL Black Box (NFL Black Box is the big brother). I began to write a possession-by-possession NBA simulation, but while I worked, I got sidetracked by a few equations I had come up with. NBA Black Box is not a simulation, it is a set of algorithms that work together to pick the straight up and ATS winners. I've given up on the elusive O/U; for some reason, it just doesn't work. There are no plans to finish the simulation - the algorithms are doing just fine.

Here are the results from when I started tracking, on March 1. They exceed my wildest expectation.

SINCE MARCH 1

WINS


PLAYOFFS
WINS


Correct Games Win%Correct
Games
Win %
279
353
79.0%
36
48
75.0%
SPREAD

SPREAD


Correct Games Win%Correct
Games
Win%
242
411
58.9%
32
54
59.3%

Those numbers are correct, check out NBA Black Box to verify. From March 1 to the end of the season, NBA Black Box was 279-74 (79.0%) picking the winner and 242-169 (58.9%) ATS. Similar results for the playoffs. From March 1, using a unit of 100, NBA Black Box returned 5610 units, for a ROI of 12.4%. And that's only after 2 months.

I'm going to track the progress on my own initially (not going to post the results), until I see some consistent performance. It takes time for reliable stats to build up. I have no idea how long that will be. It could be a couple of weeks or it could be a couple of months. The bottom line is I don't want to put unreliable picks up - I don't want people to lose money as a result of bad picks and I don't want to ruin my reputation for making quality predictions.

I'll keep you folks updated as the season continues.

Jonathan

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Week 8: Results

This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.

Straight % Wins Games Win %

50-59 3 4 75.0%

60-69 3 6 50.0%

70-79 4 4 100.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 10 14 71.4%





Spread % Wins Games Win %

50-59 4 7 57.1%

60-69 4 4 100.0%

70-79 0 1 0.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 8 12 66.7%





Total
Wins Games Win %

50-59 6 11 54.5%

60-69 0 1 0.0%

70-79 1 1 100.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 7 13 53.8%


ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner:
CAR, 57%
Spread:
ARI +4, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner:
PHI, 75%
Spread:
ATL +9, 51%
O/U:
OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner:
MIA, 54%
Spread:
MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U:
OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner:
NYJ, 72%
Spread:
KC +13.5, 64%
O/U:
OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner:
BAL, 65%
Spread:
OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner:
NO, 54%
Spread:
NO +3, 64%
O/U:
UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner:
NE, 67%
Spread:
STL +7, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner:
TB, 68%
Spread:
TB +1.5, 70%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner:
WAS, 69%
Spread:
DET +7.5, 52%
O/U:
OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner:
HOU, 78%
Spread:
HOU -9, 56%
O/U:
OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner:
JAX, 60%
Spread:
CLE +7, 66%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner:
PIT, 56%
Spread:
NYG +3, 55%
O/U:
OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner:
SF, 60%
Spread:
SEA +5, 56%
O/U:
OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner:
TEN, 79%
Spread:
TEN -4, 69%
O/U:
OVER, 51%

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Week 8: Sim Stats

Week 8 YDS/PASS YDS/PLAY YDS/PT QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals 7.06 4.96 15.17 92.37
Atlanta Falcons 6.74 4.80 16.17 83.52
Baltimore Ravens 7.03 5.15 14.10 87.59
Buffalo Bills 8.36 5.15 14.93 105.65
Carolina Panthers 8.00 5.37 12.95 102.12
Chicago Bears



Cincinnati Bengals 7.00 4.76 17.17 90.33
Cleveland Browns 5.81 4.45 13.43 78.52
Dallas Cowboys 6.05 4.69 16.03 71.09
Denver Broncos



Detroit Lions 6.41 4.90 14.23 81.40
Green Bay Packers



Houston Texans 6.99 5.50 11.52 95.98
Indianapolis Colts 6.27 4.37 16.69 76.58
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 5.33 13.90 92.84
Kansas City Chiefs 5.83 4.28 13.98 79.56
Miami Dolphins 7.40 5.34 13.38 99.93
Minnesota Vikings



New England Patriots 8.07 5.77 14.12 103.31
New Orleans Saints 8.70 6.08 15.39 107.64
New York Giants 6.47 4.81 13.82 89.33
New York Jets 7.92 6.26 14.17 97.06
Oakland Raiders 5.71 4.13 15.12 73.03
Philadelphia Eagles 7.14 5.48 11.15 99.34
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.51 4.91 12.27 98.24
San Diego Chargers 7.21 4.93 13.91 91.26
San Francisco 49ers 8.51 5.57 13.33 102.46
Seattle Seahawks 5.59 4.54 13.88 72.59
St. Louis Rams 7.13 5.13 15.31 90.66
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.25 4.52 12.95 89.82
Tennessee Titans 7.04 5.28 12.31 92.63
Washington Redskins 7.86 5.43 12.84 110.53





Simulated Average 7.05 5.07 14.08 91.26

Friday, October 24, 2008

Week 8: Predictions

Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner:
CAR, 57%
Spread:
ARI +4, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner:
PHI, 75%
Spread:
ATL +9, 51%
O/U:
OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner:
MIA, 54%
Spread:
MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U:
OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner:
NYJ, 72%
Spread:
KC +13.5, 64%
O/U:
OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner:
BAL, 65%
Spread:
OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner:
NO, 54%
Spread:
NO +3, 64%
O/U:
UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner:
NE, 67%
Spread:
STL +7, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner:
TB, 68%
Spread:
TB +1.5, 70%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner:
WAS, 69%
Spread:
DET +7.5, 52%
O/U:
OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner:
HOU, 78%
Spread:
HOU -9, 56%
O/U:
OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner:
JAX, 60%
Spread:
CLE +7, 66%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner:
PIT, 56%
Spread:
NYG +3, 55%
O/U:
OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner:
SF, 60%
Spread:
SEA +5, 56%
O/U:
OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner:
TEN, 79%
Spread:
TEN -4, 69%
O/U:
OVER, 51%

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Week 7: Results

I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.

It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.

BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.

By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner:
MIA, 67%
Spread:
MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner:
DAL, 51%
Spread:
STL +7, 74%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner:
MIN, 52%
Spread:
MIN +3, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner:
CAR, 53%
Spread:
NO +3, 59%
O/U:
UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner:
PIT, 60%
Spread:
CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U:
OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner:
BUF, 64%
Spread:
BUF, 64%
O/U:
OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner:
NYG, 67%
Spread:
SF +10.5, 68%
O/U:
UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner:
TEN, 69%
Spread:
KC +9, 61%
O/U:
OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner:
HOU, 82%
Spread:
HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner:
WAS, 77%
Spread:
WAS -7, 55%
O/U:
OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner:
GB, 60%
Spread:
GB +2, 65%
O/U:
UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner:
OAK, 55%
Spread:
OAK +3, 65%
O/U:
OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner:
TB, 69%
Spread:
SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner:
DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%



Straight % Wins Games Win %

50-59 2 5 40.0%

60-69 6 7 85.7%

70-79 1 1 100.0%

80-89 1 1 100.0%

90-100 0 0

Total 10 14 71.4%





Spread % Wins Games Win %

50-59 1 6 16.7%

60-69 4 7 57.1%

70-79 1 1 100.0%

80-89 0 0

90-100 0 0

Total 6 14 42.9%





Total
Wins Games Win %

50-59 2 6 33.3%

60-69 4 6 66.7%

70-79 0 0

80-89 0 0

90-100 0 0

Total 6 12 50.0%

Friday, October 17, 2008

Week 7: Predictions

Here are the week 7 predictions. Upsets include: MIN, GB, OAK, DEN.
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner:
MIA, 67%
Spread:
MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner:
DAL, 51%
Spread:
STL +7, 74%
O/U:
UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner:
MIN, 52%
Spread:
MIN +3, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner:
CAR, 53%
Spread:
NO +3, 59%
O/U:
UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner:
PIT, 60%
Spread:
CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U:
OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner:
BUF, 64%
Spread:
EVEN
O/U:
OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner:
NYG, 67%
Spread:
SF +10.5, 68%
O/U:
UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner:
TEN, 69%
Spread:
KC +9, 61%
O/U:
OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner:
HOU, 82%
Spread:
HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner:
WAS, 77%
Spread:
WAS -7, 55%
O/U:
OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner:
GB, 60%
Spread:
GB +2, 65%
O/U:
UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner:
OAK, 55%
Spread:
OAK +3, 65%
O/U:
OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner:
TB, 69%
Spread:
SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U:
OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner:
DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Week 7: Requested Stats

A while back I got a request to post yds/pass, yds/play, and yds/pt. At this point in the season, I think the numbers are getting accurate, so here are those stats for week 7.

TEAM YDS/PASS YDS/PLAY YDS/PT
Arizona Cardinals


Atlanta Falcons


Baltimore Ravens 6.80 4.49 17.28
Buffalo Bills 7.59 5.32 12.65
Carolina Panthers 6.73 4.93 13.74
Chicago Bears 7.00 4.76 14.23
Cincinnati Bengals 6.39 4.18 13.41
Cleveland Browns 5.86 4.39 15.53
Dallas Cowboys 7.05 5.06 15.32
Denver Broncos 7.41 5.49 12.96
Detroit Lions 6.95 5.04 17.51
Green Bay Packers 8.11 5.71 13.52
Houston Texans 8.09 6.11 11.36
Indianapolis Colts 6.34 4.70 13.02
Jacksonville Jaguars


Kansas City Chiefs 5.38 4.38 14.60
Miami Dolphins 6.91 4.91 12.52
Minnesota Vikings 6.20 4.38 13.67
New England Patriots 7.88 5.68 14.57
New Orleans Saints 7.37 4.94 15.57
New York Giants 7.54 5.91 13.10
New York Jets 7.72 5.22 15.12
Oakland Raiders 6.71 4.94 11.81
Philadelphia Eagles


Pittsburgh Steelers 6.05 4.14 12.52
San Diego Chargers 7.31 4.94 14.76
San Francisco 49ers 7.09 4.93 14.95
Seattle Seahawks 5.83 4.46 15.55
St. Louis Rams 6.90 5.00 12.57
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.25 5.55 12.96
Tennessee Titans 6.62 4.90 13.98
Washington Redskins 7.49 5.63 12.20




Average 6.949 5.002 13.962

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Passer Rating Explained

One of football's least understood metrics is the Passer Rating. It's an attempt by the statisticians to quantify a quarterback's performance, but how does it work? What does it take into account? Why the hell is the maximum rating 158.3? Given the evolution of the position, is it really a good measure of a quarterback's ability?

The QB's passer rating looks at four elements: completions, yards, interceptions, and touchdowns, all on a per completion basis. It does not include fumbles, sacks, or any type of rushing statistics. The maximum rating is 158.3 as opposed to a more logical 100.

The first element, Completions, "C" uses the formula: C = (COMP/ATT * 100 - 30)/20.
The third element, Interceptions: I = 2.375 - (INT/ATT * 25)
The fourth element, Touchdowns: T = TD/ATT * 20
The second element, Yards: Y = (YDS/ATT - 3)/4

The maximum possible value for each category is 2.375 and the minimum is 0; if COMP/ATT = .8, then C = 2.5. Since the maximum is 2.375, C equals 2.375, not 2.5. If COMP/ATT = .2 then C = -0.5. Since them minimum is 0, C equals 0. If COMP/ATT = .6 then C = 1.33. Finally, plug the values into the formula: (C+I+T+Y)/6 * 100. The result is the passer rating.

Using Tony Romo as an example, from the heartbreaking DAL-ARI game, we see that Romo had 24 completions, 38 attempts, 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

Therefore:
C = (24/38 * 100 - 30)/20
C = 1.66

I = 2.375 - (0/38 *25)
I = 2.375

T = 3/38 * 20
T = 1.58

Y = (321/38 - 3)/4
Y = 1.36

Rating = (1.66+2.375+1.58+1.36)/6 * 100
Romo's Rating = 116.2

That wasn't too tough.

The passer rating was developed by Don Smith and was first used in the 1973 season. Smith was a statistician and executive with the Pro Football Hall of Fame.1 The odd 158.3 limit came about when he decided that the average QB rating should be 66.6. That was pretty close to reality back in '73 when the average passer rating was 64.7, but last year, in '07, the average passer rating was 82.5, an increase of 28% over the decades. The idea behind his calculations was that he wanted a way to compare all QB's to the average QB at the time. Perhaps Smith's rating made sense 35 years ago when the numbers he used to calibrate the formulae were relevent, though obviously circumstances have changed since then. Completion % has gone from 51% to 61%, yards per game from 140 to 214, TD's from 1.0 to 1.4, etc.

That's a basic overview of passer rating. Once you get through the numbers, it starts to make sense. From now on when your buddies complain about that ridiculous stat, impress them with your knowledge of C.I.T.Y (comp, int, td, yds).

For you stats-minded people out there, maybe this gives you some ideas on how to make a modern formula that makes sense. When you do make one, post it for some peer review, it will be interesting to see what everyone can think up. I'm working on a formula of my own now, so stay tuned.


1. www.baseball-statistics.com/Greats/Century/passer-rating.htm

Week 6: Results

Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.


BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Straight % Wins Games Win %

50-59 4 8 50.0%

60-69 2 2 100.0%

70-79 1 4 25.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 7 14 50.0%





Spread % Wins Games Win %

50-59 2 5 40.0%

60-69 5 6 83.3%

70-79 1 2 50.0%

80-89 0 1 0.0%

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 8 14 57.1%





Total
Wins Games Win %

50-59 3 11 27.3%

60-69 0 1 0.0%

70-79 1 2 50.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 4 14 28.6%

Friday, October 10, 2008

Week 6: Top 5 / Bottom 5

(The game predictions are below this post)
Let's have a little fun this week.

The top 5 QB's by rating will be:

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB: 109.3
2. Jason Campbell, WAS: 109.2
3. Chad Pennington, MIA: 105.7
4. Jay Cutler, DEN: 104.0
5. Gus Frerotte, MIN: 103.4
Botom 5:
28. Jeff Garcia (in for Griese), TB: 83.0
29. Dan Orlovsky (in for Kitna), DET: 82.0
30. Derek Anderson, CLE: 75.4
31. Peyton Manning, IND: 73.1
32. Charlie Frye (in for Hasselbeck), SEA: 71.5

Top 5 teams by rushing yards:
1. Washington Redskins: 178.3
2. Atlanta Falcons: 171.8
3. Baltimore Ravens: 165.3
4. Oakland Raiders: 160.8
5. Seattle Seahawks: 160.6
Bottom 5:
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 75.3
29. New Orleans Saints: 72.7
30. Cincinnati Bengals: 63.4
31. Indianapolis Colts: 47.4
32. Detroit Lions: 46.5

Top 5 offenses by Points Scored:
1. Minnesota Vikings: 30.8
2. Denver Broncos: 30.2
3. San Diego Chargers: 29.0
4. Washington Redskins: 27.6
5. New York Giants: 27.5
Bottom 5:
28. Carolina Panthers: 19.8
29. Detroit Lions: 18.8
30. Indianapolis Colts: 18.4
31. St. Louis Rams: 18.4
32. Cleveland Browns: 17.8

Top 5 Defenses by Yards Allowed:
1. New York Giants: 229.7
2. Baltimore Ravens: 234.4
3. New York Jets: 260.6
4. Minnesota Vikings: 278.4
5. Washington Redskins: 280.2
Bottom 5:
28. Seattle Seahawks: 350.5
29. Detroit Lions: 355.6
30. Denver Broncos: 357.5
31. Houston Texans: 367.0
32. St. Louis Rams: 395.0

That's enough for now. Any opinions?

Week 6: Predictions

Better late than never.

Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.

BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Week 5: Results

I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).

Tie is Blue

SEA at NYG -7, 43.5

Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Straight % Correct
Games Win %

50-59 3 5 60.0%

60-69 3 4 75.0%

70-79 3 5 60.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 9 14 64.3%





Spread % Correct
Games Win %

50-59 0 3 0.0%

60-69 3 6 50.0%

70-79 3 3 100.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 6 12 50.0%





Total
Correct
Games Win %

50-59 5 11 45.5%

60-69 2 2 100.0%

70-79 0 1 0.0%

80-89 0 0 ---

90-100 0 0 ---

Total 7 14 50.0%