Week 8: Results

This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	7	57.1%
	60-69	4	4	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	12	66.7%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	11	54.5%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	13	53.8%

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 7: Results

I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.

It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.

BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.

By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	6	7	85.7%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	6	16.7%
	60-69	4	7	57.1%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	14	42.9%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	6	66.7%
	70-79	0	0
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	12	50.0%

Week 5: Results

I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).

Tie is Blue

SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Straight	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	5	60.0%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	3	5	60.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	9	14	64.3%
Spread	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	3	0.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	12	50.0%
Total		Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	11	45.5%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%

Week 2 Analysis

I'm not gonna lie, week 2 didn't go too well. Though that's not so surprising considering the nature of simulations - accuracy increases as the amount of data increases. Win = Green, Loss = Red, Push = Blue.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	2	0.0%
	90-100	1	1	100.0%
	Total	8	15	53.3%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	1	0.0%
	60-69	0	3	0.0%
	70-79	2	4	50.0%
	80-89	2	3	66.7%
	90-100	0	1	0.0%
	Total	4	12	33.3%

Backtest Update

Hi Everybody!
I'm a quarter through the 2007 season and things are looking great. I've just finished simulating weeks 2, 3, and 4. Without getting into too much detail- I'll get more detailed once the season is completely simulated- here's a summary of the simulation thus far. Believe me, I'm just as excited to see the end results as you all are. Here's how things looks through week 4:

Straight up wins (no spread): 33-13 or 71.7%
Picks against the spread: 29-17 or 63%
Over/Under picks: 31-15 or 67.4%

Week 4 was particularly exciting. I can only assume the Vegas oddsmakers were drunk when they set the lines. NFLSim successfully picked 5 underdogs to win with an average confidence of 58%.

These unlikely games were:
ATL over HOU (3 pt underdog)
DET over CHI (2.5)
OAK over MIA (3.5)
KC over SD (12.5) :-O
NYG over PHI (2.5)

These picks seem obvious with a season's worth of hindsight, but Vegas completely blew it. Score one, I mean five, for the Black Box.

That's all for now. I'll post another summary as soon as I get through another few weeks.