Saturday, October 2, 2010

Week 4 Picks

This week's spreadsheet:

Week 4 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

Earlier spreadsheets:
Week 3 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy
Posted by The Sim Capper at 7:58 AM

5 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 2, 2010 at 5:24 PM

    great work i love this type of statistical analysis. can you explain the difference between the confidence percentages and the point spread probability graphs.

    you have Arizona +8 at 51% but adding together all the home point spread probabilities worse than -8 add up to 92% and the other table has SD winning by at least 8 over 50%

    look forward to you clarification thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Sim CapperOctober 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

    The numbers under the graph show the probabilities of the home team winning by at least the specified amount.

    Since SD is the home team, the % next to 8 in the left column means that there is a 50.17% probability for SD to win by at least 8 points.

    The % next to the 8 in the right column means that there is an 8.6% probability that the home team (SD) will lose by at least 8 points.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 3, 2010 at 11:52 AM

    if SD will win by 8 50.17% of the time how do you come up with Ari covering +8 51% of the time?

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Sim CapperOctober 3, 2010 at 4:29 PM

    For a winning bet against the spread, SD would need to score at least 9 points... if SD wins by 8 the bet's a push.

    The probability that SD will outscore ARI by more than 8 points is about 49% which means that the best bet is on ARI +8 with 51% confidence.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousOctober 4, 2010 at 11:20 PM

    hey man, just want to say thank you for taking the time to do this. i'm in a suicide pool, bet about six games a week, and play fantasy. i look forward to your picks when i'm doing my research for the week.

    ReplyDelete

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