It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
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DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
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FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Week 3 Results
Added NFL and Fantasy Football news on the sidebar. You can switch between the two by clicking the links. Is it helpful or is it too 'busy'?
The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.
More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results
Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%
Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.
Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.
The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.
More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 7 | 43.75% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 8 | 50% |
Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%
Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.
Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Fair Moneyline Odds
Here's an excerpt from an earlier post describing what I call "Fair Moneyline Odds" (FMO):
Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.
NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.
In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.
On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.
In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.
*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80
Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.
NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.
In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.
On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.
In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.
*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Week 3 Picks
Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
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Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
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I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
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Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week 2 Results
NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 5 | 55.56% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3 | 50.00% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 10 | 66.67% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 4 | 44.44% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 5 | 33.33% |
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Week 2 Picks
Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.
Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
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The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.
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Most of the stats are up.
CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.
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Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.
There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.
Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.
Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
---
The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.
---
Most of the stats are up.
CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.
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Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.
There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.
Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...
Week 1 Results
NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.
I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):
Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes
For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.
NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.
Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!
That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.
I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 11 | 6 | 54.55% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5 | 100.00% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 11 | 68.75% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5 | 83.33% |
| 70-79 | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| 80-89 | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 11 | 68.75% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 2 | 25.00% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 4 | 50.00% |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 6 | 37.50% |
Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes
For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.
NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.
Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!
That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Week 1 Picks
Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes
This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.
(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks
Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.
This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.
(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks
Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Update 2
Black Box Sports is now Sim Capper.
All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.
The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.
The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Update
To clear up any confusion:
The new website will be www.simcapper.com when I get around to setting it up.
Until then, everything will continue to be posted here at nflblackbox.blogspot.com. So keep coming to the NFL Black Box blog until the website opens up.
The first predictions will be up on this site a few days before week 2.
Are you ready for some football???
The Sim Capper (Black Box Sports)
The new website will be www.simcapper.com when I get around to setting it up.
Until then, everything will continue to be posted here at nflblackbox.blogspot.com. So keep coming to the NFL Black Box blog until the website opens up.
The first predictions will be up on this site a few days before week 2.
Are you ready for some football???
The Sim Capper (Black Box Sports)
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Black Box Sports is now The Sim Capper
Congratulations Jeff P. The Sim Capper is the winner!
Runners up: Jared R. - Cognition Sports; Mike R. - Neural Net Bets
Thanks for all the great submissions, I appreciate your help!
The new website will be www.simcapper.com. Short and sweet. The website isn't set up yet, but expect its launch in a few days. Otherwise, everything will remain the same. Same great picks, same great rankings, same great content, awesome new name.
Any feedback?
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
Runners up: Jared R. - Cognition Sports; Mike R. - Neural Net Bets
Thanks for all the great submissions, I appreciate your help!
The new website will be www.simcapper.com. Short and sweet. The website isn't set up yet, but expect its launch in a few days. Otherwise, everything will remain the same. Same great picks, same great rankings, same great content, awesome new name.
Any feedback?
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
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