Update 2

Black Box Sports is now Sim Capper.

All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.

The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Black Box Sports Name Change Contest (Win $50)

Hi all,

I think it may be time to move to a real website. Unfortunately, blackboxsports.com is already taken ... though they haven't updated their site in over a year (as far as I can tell) ... what a waste of a great name.

Remember, there are no plans to charge for the use of my Black Box Sports. NFL and NBA Black Box will remain totally free! I will always be available to answer your questions and I will try my damnedest to update the site every week in a timely fashion.

I'm asking you fine gents (any ladies out there?) to think of a new name for Black Box Sports. I'm one of the (un)lucky 80% of unemployed college grads, so I can't offer a huge prize to the winner. How does $20 $50 sound? $20 $50 goes to the winner of the Black Box Sports name change contest.

The goal is to think of an edgy name that (prefferably) alludes to computers/simulations and appeals to your demographic. When people hear your name, they're curious, they have to check out the site, and once they do, they're so intrigued by the idea of an accurate football simulation that they're back next week just to see how it did.

Submit your entry as a comment in this post or send it to blackboxsports@gmail.com. You can submit as many names as you want. The more names you submit, the better your chance to win. It's free to enter and you can win $20 $50. If you post it, please post using a Google or Aim account or with your email or something so I can contact you if you win. And be sure that "yourentry".com is available.

The Contest: Submit a new name for Black Box Sports
The Prize: $20 $50 via Paypal
The Deadline: Midnight of August 31, 2009
Announcement of the Winner: September 1, 2009

NBA Black Box

NBA Black Box is officially underway. I've been posting for a couple weeks and things are looking great. Overall, on the season, NBA Black Box is 120-31 (79.5%) picking the winner, 58-31 (65.2%) ATS, and 22-7 (75.9%) when picking the underdog to win (great for moneyline bet). Check it out at nbablackbox.blogspot.com. Picks go up daily, I try to put them up as early as I can. Visit everyday and tell all your buddies. As usual, everything is 100% free.

NBA Black Box

With the start of the NBA season on Tuesday, my life just got a little busier, though I can't wait to see if I can repeat the results of last season. For those who haven't checked it out yet, NBA Black Box is the little sister of NFL Black Box (NFL Black Box is the big brother). I began to write a possession-by-possession NBA simulation, but while I worked, I got sidetracked by a few equations I had come up with. NBA Black Box is not a simulation, it is a set of algorithms that work together to pick the straight up and ATS winners. I've given up on the elusive O/U; for some reason, it just doesn't work. There are no plans to finish the simulation - the algorithms are doing just fine.

Here are the results from when I started tracking, on March 1. They exceed my wildest expectation.

SINCE MARCH 1

WINS			PLAYOFFS WINS
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win %
279	353	79.0%	36	48	75.0%
SPREAD			SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win%
242	411	58.9%	32	54	59.3%

Those numbers are correct, check out NBA Black Box to verify. From March 1 to the end of the season, NBA Black Box was 279-74 (79.0%) picking the winner and 242-169 (58.9%) ATS. Similar results for the playoffs. From March 1, using a unit of 100, NBA Black Box returned 5610 units, for a ROI of 12.4%. And that's only after 2 months.

I'm going to track the progress on my own initially (not going to post the results), until I see some consistent performance. It takes time for reliable stats to build up. I have no idea how long that will be. It could be a couple of weeks or it could be a couple of months. The bottom line is I don't want to put unreliable picks up - I don't want people to lose money as a result of bad picks and I don't want to ruin my reputation for making quality predictions.

I'll keep you folks updated as the season continues.

Jonathan

Results through week 7

Yes, I'm only at week 7. I'm putting NFLSim away for a couple weeks to focus on basketball... nbablackbox.blogspot.com, where I'm 204-51 (80.0%), when picking the winner of the game. (no spread). 178-123(59.1%) with the spread. But just like football, when you're picking with that kind of accuracy, you can make money with the moneyline. Soccer is also in the works, and the backtest results are very, very promising; a sport where the only main bet is 'who will win'. Perfect. Don't think I've forgotten about baseball! Once enough stats have accumulated I'll try my hardest to do better than the 1000's of guys who've come before me. And you can bet that I will! (pun intended)

Since there are so many numbers, I'm going to skip the details and just post the main stats. If you want the details...I don't know why you would... just send me an email. This is for weeks 2-7, 87 games in all.

Win		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	41	30	73.2%
	60-69	22	17	77.3%
	70-79	17	10	58.8%
	80-89	7	6	85.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	63	72.4%
Spread		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	35	15	42.9%
	60-69	29	18	62.1%
	70-79	20	12	60.0%
	80-89	3	2	66.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	47	54.0%
Over		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	17	13	76.5%
	60-69	26	13	50.0%
	70-79	27	15	55.6%
	80-89	15	9	60.0%
	90-100	2	2	100.0%
	Total	87	52	59.8%

Thats pretty good. Win: 72.4%, Spread: 54%, O/U: 59.8%
Really, it was just one bad week that brought the numbers down, unfortunately bad weeks are unavoidable and if anyone tells you otherwise, they're trying to scam you.

That's it for now. You can find me at nbablackbox.blogspot.com, mlbblackbox.blogspot.com, and soccerblackbox.blogspot.com. The latter 2 are under construction- soccer will feature the main leagues from England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. It will be up sooner than MLB, probably sometime this week.


Good luck, all! Be responsible, don't be greedy, and don't get scammed.