Week 8 Picks

Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

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More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
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Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.

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Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.


A match-up analysis to follow...

NBA Black Box

With the start of the NBA season on Tuesday, my life just got a little busier, though I can't wait to see if I can repeat the results of last season. For those who haven't checked it out yet, NBA Black Box is the little sister of NFL Black Box (NFL Black Box is the big brother). I began to write a possession-by-possession NBA simulation, but while I worked, I got sidetracked by a few equations I had come up with. NBA Black Box is not a simulation, it is a set of algorithms that work together to pick the straight up and ATS winners. I've given up on the elusive O/U; for some reason, it just doesn't work. There are no plans to finish the simulation - the algorithms are doing just fine.

Here are the results from when I started tracking, on March 1. They exceed my wildest expectation.

SINCE MARCH 1

WINS			PLAYOFFS WINS
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win %
279	353	79.0%	36	48	75.0%
SPREAD			SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%	Correct	Games	Win%
242	411	58.9%	32	54	59.3%

Those numbers are correct, check out NBA Black Box to verify. From March 1 to the end of the season, NBA Black Box was 279-74 (79.0%) picking the winner and 242-169 (58.9%) ATS. Similar results for the playoffs. From March 1, using a unit of 100, NBA Black Box returned 5610 units, for a ROI of 12.4%. And that's only after 2 months.

I'm going to track the progress on my own initially (not going to post the results), until I see some consistent performance. It takes time for reliable stats to build up. I have no idea how long that will be. It could be a couple of weeks or it could be a couple of months. The bottom line is I don't want to put unreliable picks up - I don't want people to lose money as a result of bad picks and I don't want to ruin my reputation for making quality predictions.

I'll keep you folks updated as the season continues.

Jonathan

Week 8: Results

This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	7	57.1%
	60-69	4	4	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	12	66.7%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	11	54.5%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	13	53.8%

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 8: Predictions

Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 7: Results

I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.

It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.

BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.

By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	6	7	85.7%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	6	16.7%
	60-69	4	7	57.1%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	14	42.9%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	6	66.7%
	70-79	0	0
	80-89	0	0
	90-100	0	0
	Total	6	12	50.0%

Week 7: Predictions

Here are the week 7 predictions. Upsets include: MIN, GB, OAK, DEN.
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.

BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%

DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%

SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%

SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%

DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%

IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%

SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%

DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%

Week 6: Top 5 / Bottom 5

(The game predictions are below this post)
Let's have a little fun this week.

The top 5 QB's by rating will be:
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB: 109.3
2. Jason Campbell, WAS: 109.2
3. Chad Pennington, MIA: 105.7
4. Jay Cutler, DEN: 104.0
5. Gus Frerotte, MIN: 103.4
Botom 5:
28. Jeff Garcia (in for Griese), TB: 83.0
29. Dan Orlovsky (in for Kitna), DET: 82.0
30. Derek Anderson, CLE: 75.4
31. Peyton Manning, IND: 73.1
32. Charlie Frye (in for Hasselbeck), SEA: 71.5

Top 5 teams by rushing yards:
1. Washington Redskins: 178.3
2. Atlanta Falcons: 171.8
3. Baltimore Ravens: 165.3
4. Oakland Raiders: 160.8
5. Seattle Seahawks: 160.6
Bottom 5:
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 75.3
29. New Orleans Saints: 72.7
30. Cincinnati Bengals: 63.4
31. Indianapolis Colts: 47.4
32. Detroit Lions: 46.5

Top 5 offenses by Points Scored:
1. Minnesota Vikings: 30.8
2. Denver Broncos: 30.2
3. San Diego Chargers: 29.0
4. Washington Redskins: 27.6
5. New York Giants: 27.5
Bottom 5:
28. Carolina Panthers: 19.8
29. Detroit Lions: 18.8
30. Indianapolis Colts: 18.4
31. St. Louis Rams: 18.4
32. Cleveland Browns: 17.8

Top 5 Defenses by Yards Allowed:
1. New York Giants: 229.7
2. Baltimore Ravens: 234.4
3. New York Jets: 260.6
4. Minnesota Vikings: 278.4
5. Washington Redskins: 280.2
Bottom 5:
28. Seattle Seahawks: 350.5
29. Detroit Lions: 355.6
30. Denver Broncos: 357.5
31. Houston Texans: 367.0
32. St. Louis Rams: 395.0

That's enough for now. Any opinions?

Week 6: Predictions

Better late than never.

Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.

BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Week 5: Results

I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).

Tie is Blue

SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Straight	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	5	60.0%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	3	5	60.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	9	14	64.3%
Spread	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	3	0.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	12	50.0%
Total		Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	11	45.5%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%

Week 4: Predictions

Here are the week 4 predictions. I'm not putting out the spread picks because I don't think they're accurate enough. As soon as I see some good results, I'll put them out there. Same with the O/U picks.

Most Confident Pick: BUF over STL, 82%; followed by CIN over CLE, 78%
Upset Watch: SF over NO, 65%; ATL over CAR, 65%; BAL over PIT, 55%

MIN at TEN -3
Winner: TEN, 74%

DEN -9.5 at KC
Winner: DEN, 67%

SF at NO -6
Winner: SF, 65%

ARI at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 54%

GB at TB -1
Winner: TB, 52%

ATL at CAR -7
Winner: ATL, 65%

HOU at JAX -7
Winner: JAX, 54%

CLE at CIN -3.5
Winner: CIN, 78%

SD -7.5 at OAK
Winner: SD, 52%

BUF -8 at STL
Winner: BUF, 82%

WAS at DAL -10.5
Winner: DAL, 60%

PHI -3 at CHI
Winner: PHI, 57%

BAL at PIT -5
Winner: BAL, 55%

Week 3: Results

We had a great week 3, 13-3 (81.3%) picking the winner. The 3 games lost were: CHI in OT (after a penalty that literally took the victory from the Bears), IND (even the Colts aren't choke-proof), and finally NE (WTF?). Didn't do so well against the spread, so I'm going to stop posting against the spread for now. As the weeks go by, the simulations will be more accurate.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	3	100.0%
	70-79	4	5	80.0%
	80-89	2	2	100.0%
	90-100	1	2	50.0%
	Total	13	16	81.3%

KC at ATL -5.5
Winner: ATL, 64%
Spread: ATL -5.5, 52%

OAK at BUF -9.5
Winner: BUF, 79%
Spread: BUF -9.5, 55%

TB at CHI -3
Winner: CHI, 55%
Spread: EVEN

CAR at MIN -3
Winner: MIN, 63%
Spread: MIN -3, 54%

MIA at NE -12.5
Winner: NE, 90%
Spread: NE -12.5, 66%

CIN at NYG -13.5
Winner: NYG, 84%
Spread: NYG -13.5, 51%

HOU at TEN -5
Winner: TEN, 87%
Spread: TEN -5, 77%

ARI at WAS -3
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: ARI +3, 61%

DET at SF -4
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF -4, 65%

STL at SEA -9.5
Winner: SEA, 71%
Spread: STL +9.5, 58%

NO at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN, 70%
Spread: DEN -5.5, 57%

PIT at PHI -3.5
Winner: PHI, 62%
Spread: EVEN

JAX at IND -5
Winner: IND, 71%
Spread: IND -5, 55%

CLE at BAL -2.5
Winner: BAL, 97%
Spread: BAL -2.5, 96%

DAL -3 at GB
Winner: DAL, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 59%

NYJ at SD -9
Winner: SD, 53%
Spread: NYJ +9, 75%

Bet Optimization Algorithm

The results for week 2 were none too impressive, but this makes my Bet Optimization Algorithm ("BOA") look much better. Simply put, BOA takes up to 21 individual bets, i.e. NYG win, MIA win, DAL win, MIN +3, etc., the payouts on those bets that Vegas offers, and the confidence NFLSim generates. Using the algorithms, BOA generates the optimal bets as well as what percentage of your bankroll you should wager on each bet. It spits out single bets and parlays of up to 6 teams. I didn't post the BOA's suggestions last week because I didn't want anyone relying on it, but I'll put them up for week 3. Keep in mind, it's still early in the season so things aren't as accurate as they could be, so be careful. Use at your own risk. Anyway, here's what it said to bet on last week. It generated a return on investment of 64% on the bets (all 31 of them). I'd say that's pretty successful.

To make it easier for me, I assign a number to each bet. All bets are on straight up winners on the moneyline, NO SPREAD. If there are numbers separated by a commas, those are parlays. All calculations are based on a total bankroll of $100. Makes calculations easier.

~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)
~"ACTUAL PAYOUT" is 0.00 if the bet loses or POSSIBLE PAYOUT if it wins.

1-BUF, 2-CHI, 3-DET, 4-MIN, 5-NO, 6-NYG, 7-KC, 8-TEN, 9-ATL, 10-SF, 11-BAL, 12-ARI, 13-NYJ, 14-DEN, 15-PIT, 16-PHI

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% OF BANKROLL	POSSIBLE PAYOUT			ACTUAL PAYOUT
15	91.00%	1.36	4.72%	6.41			6.41
9	80.00%	3.50	4.15%	14.53			0.00
10	79.00%	3.50	4.08%	14.28			14.28
7	81.00%	1.51	3.82%	5.77			0.00
8	79.00%	1.95	3.81%	7.44			7.44
9,15	72.80%	4.76	3.75%	17.85			0.00
10,15	71.89%	4.76	3.69%	17.55			17.55
8,15	71.89%	2.65	3.43%	9.08			9.08
14	74.00%	2.00	3.41%	6.82			6.82
7,15	73.71%	2.05	3.40%	6.99			0.00
9,10	63.20%	12.25	3.36%	41.21			0.00
7,9	64.80%	5.29	3.25%	17.17			0.00
8,9	63.20%	6.83	3.23%	22.05			0.00
7,10	63.99%	5.29	3.20%	16.89			0.00
8,10	62.41%	6.83	3.18%	21.70			21.70
6	76.00%	1.20	3.13%	3.76			3.76
14,15	67.34%	2.72	3.09%	8.41			8.41
16	65.00%	3.50	3.07%	10.76			0.00
9,10,15	57.51%	16.66	3.07%	51.17			0.00
9,14	59.20%	7.00	2.98%	20.88			0.00
7,9,15	58.97%	7.19	2.98%	21.39			0.00
8,9,15	57.51%	9.28	2.96%	27.46			0.00
10,14	58.46%	7.00	2.94%	20.55			20.55
7,10,15	58.23%	7.19	2.93%	21.06			0.00
8,10,15	56.79%	9.28	2.91%	27.05			27.05
7,8	63.99%	2.94	2.89%	8.52			0.00
1	64.00%	2.90	2.88%	8.36			8.36
6,9	60.80%	4.20	2.88%	12.08			0.00
7,8,9,10,15	36.80%	49.06	1.98%	97.36			0.00
7,9,10,15	46.58%	25.16	2.48%	62.51			0.00
1,8	50.56%	5.66	2.34%	13.22			13.22

Total Bankroll: $100
Total Winnings: $164.62
Total Profit: $64.62
Return on Investment: 64.62%

So even when the predictions aren't terribly accurate (53.3%), BOA is able to perform well based on the idea that the probabilities generated by NFLSim are equivalent to the probabilities in reality. Hopefully, for everyone, this will continue.

Predicting total number of wins using Points

If you're going to devise a system to predict games, where do you start? Some people like to look at total yardage as their primary predictor, various trends and indicators, the type of turf and weather, or "Who would win in a fight: a lion or a bear?". I like to break down a sport to figure out what the absolute deciding factor is in a victory. Total yards? Sometimes a team with greater total yards wins, but sometimes not. Number of touchdowns? Three field goals beats one touchdown. The only factor that ALWAYS holds true in a victory is... number of points. The team with the greater number of points ALWAYS wins. So that must mean that a high scoring team usually beats a low scoring team. Here's some interesting data showing the relationship between points scored and number of wins.

First, let me introduce the concept of 'R-squared' or 'R^2'. R^2 is called the coefficient of determination, it's also the square of the coefficient of correlation. The R^2 value measures how closely a trend line fits the data. It has a value between 0 and 1; 1 meaning the trend line and the data fall exactly on the same line, 0 meaning the data and the trend line have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Therefore, R^2 near 1 says that you've got data which can be approximated by the trend line.

Now I'll show you the remarkable correlation between number of wins and points scored. I looked at both point ratio (points for / points against) and average point differential ((points for - points against)/# of games) for all teams from 2002-2007, that's 6 seasons. For every team, at the end of the season, I calculated their number of wins, their point ratio, and their point differential. I averaged together the point ratio and point differential for all like-numbered wins. For example, I grouped and averaged together all pt. ratios for teams that won 11 games, which gave me the average point ratio for teams that won 11 games.

Results

I chose to exclude teams with 1, 15, and 16 wins because in 6 seasons only 1 team fit into each of those categories. Also, I apologize if the graph is a little hard to read, different monitor resolutions might distort it.

Point ratio fits along the line y = 0.0903x + 0.3304 (y = PF/PA, x = # of wins) with an R^2 value of 0.9842.
Average point differential fits y = 1.8311x - 14.664 (y = Avg. Pt. Differential, x = # of wins) with R^2 value of 0.9969.

If we rearrange these equations, we can use them to give a rough prediction of the number of games a team will win come the end of the season. So, the number of games a team will win is based on the formulae:
Ratio:
Wins = (PF/PA)*11.0742 + 3.6589
Differential:
Wins = [(PF-PA)/Games]*0.5461 + 8.008

If you're going to make a bet with your buddy halfway through the season as to whether the Jets will win 3 or 4 games this season, check one of the equations first. (I like the differential equation more, better R^2 value.)

If you want to predict the outcome of games, you can use this to figure out who is supposed to win based on the number of wins they have left in the season. That may be a little abstract, though. Probably a better way to use this information is to work it into your own method. Even better, take away the idea that incorporating points into a system may be the difference between picking games at 47% and 53%.

Jonathan
Black Box Sports

Questions? E-mail me!

Welcome Back

Hey guys,

Football season's right around the corner, finally. It's almost time to have some fun with these predictions. Officially, the first week I'll simulate is week 2 (Sept. 14). I need data for the simulation and unfortunately preseason numbers don't work. Although, if anyone's curious, I suppose I can run a few sim's for sh!ts 'n giggles.

Write a comment with your fantasy matchup; specify the home team (or neutral) and let me know if you want me to use numbers from the end of the '07 season or preseason.

More updates will follow as the 2008 NFL season approaches.

p.s. I got a shiny new laptop that runs the program 4x as fast as my old crappy laptop (craptop). This means that I can run even more simulations for each game, making the predictions even more accurate!