Black Box Sports is now The Sim Capper

Congratulations Jeff P. The Sim Capper is the winner!

Runners up: Jared R. - Cognition Sports; Mike R. - Neural Net Bets

Thanks for all the great submissions, I appreciate your help!

The new website will be www.simcapper.com. Short and sweet. The website isn't set up yet, but expect its launch in a few days. Otherwise, everything will remain the same. Same great picks, same great rankings, same great content, awesome new name.

Any feedback?

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Week 9: Predictions

ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%

BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%

DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%

JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%

NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%

TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%

MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%

ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%

DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%

NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%

PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%

Welcome Back

Hey guys,

Football season's right around the corner, finally. It's almost time to have some fun with these predictions. Officially, the first week I'll simulate is week 2 (Sept. 14). I need data for the simulation and unfortunately preseason numbers don't work. Although, if anyone's curious, I suppose I can run a few sim's for sh!ts 'n giggles.

Write a comment with your fantasy matchup; specify the home team (or neutral) and let me know if you want me to use numbers from the end of the '07 season or preseason.

More updates will follow as the 2008 NFL season approaches.

p.s. I got a shiny new laptop that runs the program 4x as fast as my old crappy laptop (craptop). This means that I can run even more simulations for each game, making the predictions even more accurate!

My First Post, an Introduction

If you've read the 'About Me' column then you already know about me and my program. Over the past 6 months, I've worked everyday to perfect this simulator. By week 12 I was able to start picking games straight up. I managed to get the spread/over/under feature working just in time for the playoffs.

It hadn't occurred to me to create a blog to document my progress until...this afternoon. I stumbled onto a blog here during my search for solid statistics showing the win percentages of 'experts', handicappers, and websites- some of which, as you know, charge hundreds of dollars for one week of picks. I was curious to see how the success of 'expert handicappers with 20 years of experience' compared to the success of 'some kid with with a computer'. I was ecstatic to see that not one entity came close to matching me.

Unfortunately, my lack of a blog has prevented me from sharing my prognostications with the public until now. Therefore, I shall present to you all of my results, along with all 'theoretical' bets* that may have been placed on those picks. This will demonstrate both the accuracy and efficacy of my program.

*The amount of each bet may seem weird- the size of each bet was determined using a formula which takes into account the probability of a win, the payout, and the bankroll, in order to maximize profit and minimize losses...duh.