Week 7: Requested Stats

A while back I got a request to post yds/pass, yds/play, and yds/pt. At this point in the season, I think the numbers are getting accurate, so here are those stats for week 7.

TEAM	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens	6.80	4.49	17.28
Buffalo Bills	7.59	5.32	12.65
Carolina Panthers	6.73	4.93	13.74
Chicago Bears	7.00	4.76	14.23
Cincinnati Bengals	6.39	4.18	13.41
Cleveland Browns	5.86	4.39	15.53
Dallas Cowboys	7.05	5.06	15.32
Denver Broncos	7.41	5.49	12.96
Detroit Lions	6.95	5.04	17.51
Green Bay Packers	8.11	5.71	13.52
Houston Texans	8.09	6.11	11.36
Indianapolis Colts	6.34	4.70	13.02
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs	5.38	4.38	14.60
Miami Dolphins	6.91	4.91	12.52
Minnesota Vikings	6.20	4.38	13.67
New England Patriots	7.88	5.68	14.57
New Orleans Saints	7.37	4.94	15.57
New York Giants	7.54	5.91	13.10
New York Jets	7.72	5.22	15.12
Oakland Raiders	6.71	4.94	11.81
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05	4.14	12.52
San Diego Chargers	7.31	4.94	14.76
San Francisco 49ers	7.09	4.93	14.95
Seattle Seahawks	5.83	4.46	15.55
St. Louis Rams	6.90	5.00	12.57
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.25	5.55	12.96
Tennessee Titans	6.62	4.90	13.98
Washington Redskins	7.49	5.63	12.20
Average	6.949	5.002	13.962

Week 6: Top 5 / Bottom 5

(The game predictions are below this post)
Let's have a little fun this week.

The top 5 QB's by rating will be:
1. Aaron Rodgers, GB: 109.3
2. Jason Campbell, WAS: 109.2
3. Chad Pennington, MIA: 105.7
4. Jay Cutler, DEN: 104.0
5. Gus Frerotte, MIN: 103.4
Botom 5:
28. Jeff Garcia (in for Griese), TB: 83.0
29. Dan Orlovsky (in for Kitna), DET: 82.0
30. Derek Anderson, CLE: 75.4
31. Peyton Manning, IND: 73.1
32. Charlie Frye (in for Hasselbeck), SEA: 71.5

Top 5 teams by rushing yards:
1. Washington Redskins: 178.3
2. Atlanta Falcons: 171.8
3. Baltimore Ravens: 165.3
4. Oakland Raiders: 160.8
5. Seattle Seahawks: 160.6
Bottom 5:
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 75.3
29. New Orleans Saints: 72.7
30. Cincinnati Bengals: 63.4
31. Indianapolis Colts: 47.4
32. Detroit Lions: 46.5

Top 5 offenses by Points Scored:
1. Minnesota Vikings: 30.8
2. Denver Broncos: 30.2
3. San Diego Chargers: 29.0
4. Washington Redskins: 27.6
5. New York Giants: 27.5
Bottom 5:
28. Carolina Panthers: 19.8
29. Detroit Lions: 18.8
30. Indianapolis Colts: 18.4
31. St. Louis Rams: 18.4
32. Cleveland Browns: 17.8

Top 5 Defenses by Yards Allowed:
1. New York Giants: 229.7
2. Baltimore Ravens: 234.4
3. New York Jets: 260.6
4. Minnesota Vikings: 278.4
5. Washington Redskins: 280.2
Bottom 5:
28. Seattle Seahawks: 350.5
29. Detroit Lions: 355.6
30. Denver Broncos: 357.5
31. Houston Texans: 367.0
32. St. Louis Rams: 395.0

That's enough for now. Any opinions?

Week 2 Analysis

I'm not gonna lie, week 2 didn't go too well. Though that's not so surprising considering the nature of simulations - accuracy increases as the amount of data increases. Win = Green, Loss = Red, Push = Blue.

NYG -8.5 at STL
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: EVEN

IND -2 at MIN
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: MIN +2, 58%

NO -1 at WAS
Winner: NO, 61%
Spread: NO -1, 60%

CHI at CAR -3
Winner: CAR, 51%
Spread: CHI +3, 61%

BUF at JAX -5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF +5, 77%

TEN at CIN -1
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN +1, 80%

GB -3.5 at DET
Winner: DET, 59%
Spread: DET +3.5, 64%

OAK at KC -3.5
Winner: KC, 81%
Spread: KC -3.5, 72%

SF at SEA -6.5
Winner: SF, 79%
Spread: SF +6.5, 89%

ATL at TB -7
Winner: ATL, 80%
Spread: ATL +7, 92%

SD -1 at DEN
Winner: DEN, 74%
Spread: DEN +1, 75%

BAL at HOU -4.5
Winner: BAL, 70%
Spread: BAL +4.5, 80%

NE at NYJ -1.5
Winner: NYJ, 53%
Spread: EVEN

MIA at ARI -6.5
Winner: ARI, 57%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 61%

PIT -6 at CLE
Winner: PIT, 91%
Spread: PIT -6, 79%

PHI at DAL -7
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI +7, 84%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	2	0.0%
	90-100	1	1	100.0%
	Total	8	15	53.3%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	1	0.0%
	60-69	0	3	0.0%
	70-79	2	4	50.0%
	80-89	2	3	66.7%
	90-100	0	1	0.0%
	Total	4	12	33.3%

My First Post, an Introduction

If you've read the 'About Me' column then you already know about me and my program. Over the past 6 months, I've worked everyday to perfect this simulator. By week 12 I was able to start picking games straight up. I managed to get the spread/over/under feature working just in time for the playoffs.

It hadn't occurred to me to create a blog to document my progress until...this afternoon. I stumbled onto a blog here during my search for solid statistics showing the win percentages of 'experts', handicappers, and websites- some of which, as you know, charge hundreds of dollars for one week of picks. I was curious to see how the success of 'expert handicappers with 20 years of experience' compared to the success of 'some kid with with a computer'. I was ecstatic to see that not one entity came close to matching me.

Unfortunately, my lack of a blog has prevented me from sharing my prognostications with the public until now. Therefore, I shall present to you all of my results, along with all 'theoretical' bets* that may have been placed on those picks. This will demonstrate both the accuracy and efficacy of my program.

*The amount of each bet may seem weird- the size of each bet was determined using a formula which takes into account the probability of a win, the payout, and the bankroll, in order to maximize profit and minimize losses...duh.