Hey guys,
Football season's right around the corner, finally. It's almost time to have some fun with these predictions. Officially, the first week I'll simulate is week 2 (Sept. 14). I need data for the simulation and unfortunately preseason numbers don't work. Although, if anyone's curious, I suppose I can run a few sim's for sh!ts 'n giggles.
Write a comment with your fantasy matchup; specify the home team (or neutral) and let me know if you want me to use numbers from the end of the '07 season or preseason.
More updates will follow as the 2008 NFL season approaches.
p.s. I got a shiny new laptop that runs the program 4x as fast as my old crappy laptop (craptop). This means that I can run even more simulations for each game, making the predictions even more accurate!
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
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Hi there,
ReplyDeleteWould you post a prediction for the Texans versus the Broncos? I'd like to see how they might open up their season.
thanks
Eric,
ReplyDeleteI just ran a sim of the Broncos playing the Texans in Houston. Since the stats I used are from last season (when next season starts I'll use new stats) and this is just a preseason game, the results I found won't reflect the outcome of this week's game.
Actually, this game did take place last season, week 15. DEN was a 2.5 point favorite.
NFLSim results: Denver won 51% of games, basically a toss up. Houston beat the spread with a probability of 51.5%.
Actual results: Houston won 31-13, beating the spread.
The simulations said the outcomes could have gone either way, but it did hit the spread, that's what counts. (If the probability of a team beating the spread is less than 52.4%, it's not a good idea to bet.)