Week 5 Picks

Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

Sim Capper: Now with Fantasy!
Go to the "Fantasy Projections" sheet to check out how NFLSim ranks the teams based on their fantasy performance. Last week went well. If you're on the fence about a position, check out the rankings and projected points to make up your mind.

***Full stat tables and Fantasy Ranks will go up as soon as all of the games have been simulated***

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Stats and fantasy are up, Seattle doesn't seem to be in any rush...
NFL.com ranked their QBs pretty much the same as NFLSim, that's pretty cool.
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***Fixed the Fantasy defense rankings***
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Watch out for the totals this week, the scores are running a little high.
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Monday Night Matchup
NYJ -1.5 at MIA, 36.5
I don't care what anyone says, I still like the Dolphins. Both teams are going to have an extremely lackluster passing game with Sanchez and Henne at their helms. Sanchez with an impressive 4 TDs and 5 INTs on the season; Henne with his second start ever. NFLSim has them pretty much even in terms of stats - same attempts, completion percentage, average TDs... The only difference being Sanchez's comparatively impressive 7.4 yds/att compared to Henne's 5.4. Don't look for much in the air, but the Jets should have the advantage. The difference will be the Wildcat offense; Miami dominates in all simulated rushing categories, including a projected 175 yards to New York's 102. That's not too hard to believe, considering last week against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown and (hook 'em) Ricky Williams ran for a combined 250 yards, averaging 5.6 yds/att, with a sexy 3 TDs. Even better, this is an AFC East rivalry, so anything can happen. The Jets are sure to get a boost when they leave that sh*tty NY weather for some awesome south Florida sunshine. Me and NFLSim are still on the Wildcat bandwagon: MIA to win, 63%; MIA cover +1.5, 64%; good chance the score is OVER 36.5, 85%.

Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em

To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.

QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA

Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ

Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE

Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL

Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

Welcome Back

Hey guys,

Football season's right around the corner, finally. It's almost time to have some fun with these predictions. Officially, the first week I'll simulate is week 2 (Sept. 14). I need data for the simulation and unfortunately preseason numbers don't work. Although, if anyone's curious, I suppose I can run a few sim's for sh!ts 'n giggles.

Write a comment with your fantasy matchup; specify the home team (or neutral) and let me know if you want me to use numbers from the end of the '07 season or preseason.

More updates will follow as the 2008 NFL season approaches.

p.s. I got a shiny new laptop that runs the program 4x as fast as my old crappy laptop (craptop). This means that I can run even more simulations for each game, making the predictions even more accurate!