Here's an excerpt from an earlier post describing what I call "Fair Moneyline Odds" (FMO):
Use week 3's DEN at OAK -125/+105 game as an example. I strictly use decimal odds* in all of my calculations, it's much easier to use in calculations. The decimal odds are DEN 1.80, OAK 2.05.
NFLSim determined the probability of DEN winning to be 77%. To determine the Fair Moneyline Odds, divide 1 by the probability (as a decimal). 1/0.77 = 1.30. Assuming the NFLSim has assigned the correct probability - and this only works if it does - then out of 100 games, DEN will win 77 of them. Starting with $100 and making 100 $1 bets, you will win 77 of bets. At a payout of 1.30, 77 winning bets gets you back to $100, you break even. Any payout larger than 1.30 will produce a profit after 77 wins.
In the case of the DEN game, DEN offers a 1.80 payout. At NFLSim's probability, 77%, you are expected to win 77 bets at 1.80. 77*1.80 = $138.6. There is an expected profit of $39. A payout of 1.80 is greater than the break even odds of 1.30 (the Fair Moneyline Odds), so it is a good bet.
On the other side of the matchup is OAK 2.05. The probability of OAK winning is 23%. The FMO would be 1/0.23 = 4.35. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 4.35, you break even at $100. Currently, Vegas pays 2.05 for an OAK win. If you win 23 bets at a payout of 2.05, you end up with $47.15 for an expected loss of $52.85. A payout of 2.05 is less then the FMO of 4.35, this is a bad bet.
In the spreadsheet, I list the break even moneyline odds for the specified team. If your sportsbook has odds greater than what is listed for that team, it is good to place that moneyline bet. However, if the odds are less than break even, it is a good idea to bet on the opposing team (even if they're picked to lose). With this system, it is irrelevant who you think will win the game. This is all about exploiting the inefficiency in the line.
*To convert American odds to decimal odds:
For the underdog, add 100 then divide by 100. OAK +105 => (105 + 100)/100 = 2.05
For the favorite, divide -100 by the odds, add 1. NYJ -125 => -100/-125 + 1 = 1.80
Showing posts with label Moneyline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moneyline. Show all posts
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Super Bowl XLII
The Super Bowl is finally here. Pittsburgh and Arizona? Anyone see that one coming? It looks like there's a big-time upset in the making. Out of 1001 simulations on a neutral field, the winner is ... Arizona with 564 wins. Sure, they're only a 56% favorite, but that's significant considering that they're a 7 point dog. I think the line this weekend has more to do with the public's perception of the teams as well as all the hype surrounding the Steelers. Arizona is sneaking by while Pittsburgh is getting all of the attention. Does this scenario sound familiar? The same thing happened last year when the Giants came out of nowhere to beat the unbeatable.
First, I'll put up the scores. There are is an abundance of different lines this weekend, so I will post them all along with their odds (in decimal format of course. Bear in mind -110 = 1.91). Below the scores are some key stats.
The best bets have ***** next to them.
Super Bowl XLII
Average Score
Pittsburgh Steelers: 17.96
Arizona Cardinals: 19.60
Looks to be a low scoring match-up, dominated by the defense. This postseason, PIT has allowed 19 pts/game, ARI 20.7.
Winner
Pittsburgh Steelers: 44%, 1.44
Arizona Cardinals: 56%, 2.85 *****
This is a close one, but ARI comes out on top. Though 56% is not much more than a coin toss. Over the course of the 2008 season, games with confidence percentages between 50-59% are correct 64% of the time. In reality, 64% is a little more substantial, but it still could go either way.
Spread
Here's the fun part. Arizona is the underdog, so expect them to beat all of the lines, albeit with different %'s.
BET, confidence %, bet price. If *****, then it's a favorable bet.
ARI +7, 80%, 1.83 *****
ARI +1.5, 60%, 2.65 *****
ARI +4.5, 71%, 2.20 *****
ARI +9.5, 82%, 1.67 *****
ARI +10.5, 85%, 1.53 *****
ARI +13.5, 89%, 1.42 *****
Arizona probably won't lose by at least 2 touchdowns.
Over/Under
NFLSim has been pretty accurate when predicting totals with confidence over 60%: 37-22, or 63%. Let's see what we've got.
First lets look at Team Totals, i.e. will Arizona score more or less than 20 points?
ARI UNDER 20, 58%, 1.83 *****
PIT UNDER 26.5, 81%, 1.83 *****
Now totals:
UNDER 39.5, 58%, 3.00 *****
UNDER 42.5, 67%, 2.60 *****
UNDER 45.5, 75%, 2.00 *****
UNDER 50.5, 85%, 1.56 *****
UNDER 53.5, 89%, 1.40 *****
Fun/Prop Bets
Here's the per game breakdown of scoring plays.
PIT is going to dominate the rush game while ARI has the passing advantage. PIT's defense is going to hold ARI to a lot of FGs.
The first score of the game by any team:
TD, 65%, 1.57 *****
FG, 35%, 2.35
Here is the per game play breakdown.
First offensive play by any team:
PASS, 52%, 1.91
RUSH, 48%, 1.77
First penalty against:
PIT, 47%, 1.87
ARI, 53%, 1.80
Total Pass Completions:
Kurt Warner
OVER 22.5, 27%, 1.91
UNDER 22.5, 73%, 1.77 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 17.5, 38%, 1.80
UNDER 17.5, 62%, 1.87 *****
Total Yards:
Kurt Warner
OVER 255.5, 23%, 1.83
UNDER 255.5, 77%, 1.83 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 245.5, 14%, 1.91
UNDER 245.5, 86%, 1.77 *****
Total Team Rushing Yards:
Arizona
OVER 76.5, 24%, 1.83
UNDER 76.5, 76%, 1.83 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 109.5, 42%, 1.77
UNDER 109.5, 58%, 1.91 *****
Total Sacks:
Arizona
OVER 2.5, 43%, 1.77
UNDER 2.5, 57%, 1.91 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 2.5, 41%, 1.83
UNDER 2.5, 59%, 1.83 *****
Most Passing Yards:
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
WARNER, 65%, 1.63 *****
ROETHLISBERGER, 35%, 2.20
Most Rushing Yards:
Edgerrin James vs. Willie Parker
JAMES, 19%, 3.50
PARKER, 81%, 1.29 *****
First, I'll put up the scores. There are is an abundance of different lines this weekend, so I will post them all along with their odds (in decimal format of course. Bear in mind -110 = 1.91). Below the scores are some key stats.
The best bets have ***** next to them.
Super Bowl XLII
Average Score
Pittsburgh Steelers: 17.96
Arizona Cardinals: 19.60
Looks to be a low scoring match-up, dominated by the defense. This postseason, PIT has allowed 19 pts/game, ARI 20.7.
Winner
Pittsburgh Steelers: 44%, 1.44
Arizona Cardinals: 56%, 2.85 *****
This is a close one, but ARI comes out on top. Though 56% is not much more than a coin toss. Over the course of the 2008 season, games with confidence percentages between 50-59% are correct 64% of the time. In reality, 64% is a little more substantial, but it still could go either way.
Spread
Here's the fun part. Arizona is the underdog, so expect them to beat all of the lines, albeit with different %'s.
BET, confidence %, bet price. If *****, then it's a favorable bet.
ARI +7, 80%, 1.83 *****
ARI +1.5, 60%, 2.65 *****
ARI +4.5, 71%, 2.20 *****
ARI +9.5, 82%, 1.67 *****
ARI +10.5, 85%, 1.53 *****
ARI +13.5, 89%, 1.42 *****
Arizona probably won't lose by at least 2 touchdowns.
Over/Under
NFLSim has been pretty accurate when predicting totals with confidence over 60%: 37-22, or 63%. Let's see what we've got.
First lets look at Team Totals, i.e. will Arizona score more or less than 20 points?
ARI UNDER 20, 58%, 1.83 *****
PIT UNDER 26.5, 81%, 1.83 *****
Now totals:
UNDER 39.5, 58%, 3.00 *****
UNDER 42.5, 67%, 2.60 *****
UNDER 45.5, 75%, 2.00 *****
UNDER 50.5, 85%, 1.56 *****
UNDER 53.5, 89%, 1.40 *****
Fun/Prop Bets
Here's the per game breakdown of scoring plays.
| FG | Rush | Pass | |
| PIT | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| ARI | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
PIT is going to dominate the rush game while ARI has the passing advantage. PIT's defense is going to hold ARI to a lot of FGs.
The first score of the game by any team:
TD, 65%, 1.57 *****
FG, 35%, 2.35
Here is the per game play breakdown.
| Rush | Pass | Total | |
| PIT | 32.6 | 26.2 | 58.8 |
| ARI | 20.4 | 31.2 | 51.7 |
| Total | 53.1 | 57.4 | 110.5 |
First offensive play by any team:
PASS, 52%, 1.91
RUSH, 48%, 1.77
First penalty against:
PIT, 47%, 1.87
ARI, 53%, 1.80
Total Pass Completions:
Kurt Warner
OVER 22.5, 27%, 1.91
UNDER 22.5, 73%, 1.77 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 17.5, 38%, 1.80
UNDER 17.5, 62%, 1.87 *****
Total Yards:
Kurt Warner
OVER 255.5, 23%, 1.83
UNDER 255.5, 77%, 1.83 *****
Ben Roethlisberger
OVER 245.5, 14%, 1.91
UNDER 245.5, 86%, 1.77 *****
Total Team Rushing Yards:
Arizona
OVER 76.5, 24%, 1.83
UNDER 76.5, 76%, 1.83 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 109.5, 42%, 1.77
UNDER 109.5, 58%, 1.91 *****
Total Sacks:
Arizona
OVER 2.5, 43%, 1.77
UNDER 2.5, 57%, 1.91 *****
Pittsburgh
OVER 2.5, 41%, 1.83
UNDER 2.5, 59%, 1.83 *****
Most Passing Yards:
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
WARNER, 65%, 1.63 *****
ROETHLISBERGER, 35%, 2.20
Most Rushing Yards:
Edgerrin James vs. Willie Parker
JAMES, 19%, 3.50
PARKER, 81%, 1.29 *****
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Week 11: Predictions
Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.
NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%
HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%
SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%
HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%
SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Week 10: Predictions
Ok, here's the new format. Same thing as before, but no I add the average scores as well. Underneath the matchup are the average scores. DEN's average score over the course of 500 simulations was 21.25 and CLE's average score was 21.40. Average scores aren't predictions of the score, they're just measures of relative performance. Every once in a while, one team will be favored to win even though on average they score less. This is the case with the DEN game. I wish there was an easier way to cram more stats into each game, but this blog format is really limiting.
I'm also planning on posting games as I finish them. One last change, instead of reposting everything an a "Results" section, i'm going to color everything in the "Prediction" section. A small "Results" section will sum up the weekend.
Only 2 upsets this week, DEN over CLE (52%) and HOU over BAL (57%). More 'UNDER's than usual. More favorites covering the spread, as well.
DEN at CLE -3.5, 45.5
DEN: 21.25
CLE: 21.40
Winner: DEN, 52%
Spread: DEN +3.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
BAL -1 at HOU, 42
BAL: 21.57
HOU: 23.12
Winner: HOU, 57%
Spread: HOU +1, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
BUF at NE -3.5, 41.5
BUF: 22.10
NE: 23.41
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: BUF +3.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%
GB at MIN -2, 45.5
GB: 19.95
MIN: 23.45
Winner: MIN, 57%
Spread: MIN -2, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
JAX -6.5 at DET, 44.5
JAX: 24.65
DET: 22.00
Winner: JAX, 56%
Spread: DET +6.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 56%
NO at ATL -1, 50
NO: 22.22
ATL: 26.39
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: ATL -1, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
SEA at MIA -8.5, 43
SEA: 17.19
MIA: 29.42
Winner: MIA, 79%
Spread: MIA -8.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%
STL at NYJ -8.5, 44
STL: 19.05
NYJ: 27.06
Winner: NYJ, 70%
Spread: STL +8.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 53%
TEN -3 at CHI, 38.5
TEN: 22.33
CHI: 18.47
Winner: TEN, 60%
Spread: CHI +3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%
CAR -9.5 at OAK, 37.5
CAR: 21.15
OAK: 19.93
Winner: CAR, 54%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 58%
IND at PIT -3.5, 39.5
IND: 17.97
PIT: 22.27
Winner: PIT, 62%
Spread: PIT -3.5, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
KC at SD -15, 47
KC: 18.93
SD: 26.02
Winner: SD, 70%
Spread: KC +15, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 60%
NYG at PHI -3, 43.5
NYG: 18.88
PHI: 25.48
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI -3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 52%
SF at ARI -9.5, 45.5
SF: 20.34
ARI: 24.25
Winner: ARI, 63%
Spread: SF +9.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
I'm also planning on posting games as I finish them. One last change, instead of reposting everything an a "Results" section, i'm going to color everything in the "Prediction" section. A small "Results" section will sum up the weekend.
Only 2 upsets this week, DEN over CLE (52%) and HOU over BAL (57%). More 'UNDER's than usual. More favorites covering the spread, as well.
DEN at CLE -3.5, 45.5
DEN: 21.25
CLE: 21.40
Winner: DEN, 52%
Spread: DEN +3.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
BAL -1 at HOU, 42
BAL: 21.57
HOU: 23.12
Winner: HOU, 57%
Spread: HOU +1, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
BUF at NE -3.5, 41.5
BUF: 22.10
NE: 23.41
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: BUF +3.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%
GB at MIN -2, 45.5
GB: 19.95
MIN: 23.45
Winner: MIN, 57%
Spread: MIN -2, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
JAX -6.5 at DET, 44.5
JAX: 24.65
DET: 22.00
Winner: JAX, 56%
Spread: DET +6.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 56%
NO at ATL -1, 50
NO: 22.22
ATL: 26.39
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: ATL -1, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
SEA at MIA -8.5, 43
SEA: 17.19
MIA: 29.42
Winner: MIA, 79%
Spread: MIA -8.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%
STL at NYJ -8.5, 44
STL: 19.05
NYJ: 27.06
Winner: NYJ, 70%
Spread: STL +8.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 53%
TEN -3 at CHI, 38.5
TEN: 22.33
CHI: 18.47
Winner: TEN, 60%
Spread: CHI +3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%
CAR -9.5 at OAK, 37.5
CAR: 21.15
OAK: 19.93
Winner: CAR, 54%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 58%
IND at PIT -3.5, 39.5
IND: 17.97
PIT: 22.27
Winner: PIT, 62%
Spread: PIT -3.5, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
KC at SD -15, 47
KC: 18.93
SD: 26.02
Winner: SD, 70%
Spread: KC +15, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 60%
NYG at PHI -3, 43.5
NYG: 18.88
PHI: 25.48
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI -3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 52%
SF at ARI -9.5, 45.5
SF: 20.34
ARI: 24.25
Winner: ARI, 63%
Spread: SF +9.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Midseason Progressive Results
And now, what everyone's been waiting for. We're about halfway through the season, so I think it's time to post NFLSim's impressive progressive results. I chose to leave out week 2 because It was still too early for me to be making predictions based on 1 week of data. I'm going to post Accuscore's results as well for a comparison. They're the only other play-by-play NFL simulator I know of and they're a well established, well funded, syndicated, sponsored, and mathematically sophisticated operation. David and Goliath? Let's see...
I'm going to give you several different numbers. First, I'll give you the overall numbers, as in the collective 50-100% predictions for winner, spread, and o/u. Then you'll get their numbers broken down. I'll show you weekly trends, % trends, etc.
Overall numbers:
Winner: 65-34 (65.7%)
Spread: 47-45 (51.5%)
O/U: 50-43 (53.8%)
Spread and O/U combined: 97-88 (53.8%)
Accuscore numbers:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Accuscore has a slight edge when picking the winner, I have a slight edge picking ATS, and Accuscore has a sizeable advantage picking O/U. BUT! Let's look at how Black Box Sports picks compare when confidence is at least 60%. This confidence is really where NFLSim shines. Here is Black Box Sports's record when the confidence is over 60% compared to Accuscore's overall record (can't find any confidence values for picks). Fasten your seat belts.
Black Box Sports +60%:
Winner: 41-19 (68.3%) ... 22-8 (73.3%) when greater than 70%
Spread: 36-21 (63.2%)
O/U: 21-10 (67.7%)
Spread and O/U: 57-31 (64.7%)
Betting 100 units on the spread and over/under, you made +2290, ROI of 26%, halfway through the season.
Once again, Accuscore's numbers:
Accuscore:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Picking the winner, I'm ahead by 1.4% when at least 60% confidence, 6.4% when at least 70% confidence. Spread, I'm ahead by 12.7%. O/U, up by 10.5%. Combined, I'm up by 10.6%. That's what I'm talking about. Not to mention I offer all the picks for free... Spread the word everyone.
In tabular format:
Graphically:
Theoretically, as in, if NFLSim was a perfect analog of reality, those dashed lines would be perfectly in line with the thick black line. It would mean that the confidence values are always spot on and the games end exactly the way they should. If the trend (dashed) lines are below the thick line, the confidence values are not as accurate as reality. The more parallel the thick and trend lines are, the more accurate the changes in confidenc values are, i.e., as confidence increases, the accuracy increases at the correct rate. If that makes any sense. This graph shows all the picks.
You'll notice that above, the win % for 90-100 is at 50%. In week 3, the 90.03% favorite NE lost to MIA. 0.03% is just about a difference of 1 game in the entire set of hundreds and hundreds of simulated games. Had NE been an 89.97% favorite, the graph would look like this:
Check out the 'Wins' line. The Wins line overlaps the theoretical line. You can't even see it. That's absolutely absurd, especially after 100 games. The trendline has a slope of .09, compared to the theoretical line's .1. The "Wins" trendline has an R-squared value (a measure of how closely the data points fit the line) of 0.89. Absolutely insane. In general, I try to temper my enthusiasm, but this is unbelievable... This means that when NFLSim says a team will win 63% of the time, that team will win 63% of the time. For those of you math-minded people, the expected number of wins is approximately 64.15. The actual number of wins is 65. That blows my mind.
Here's a team-by-team accuracy breakdown:
I'll post some more stats if I have a chance.
Enjoy!
I'd love to hear everyone's reactions and questions, so don't be shy, send me some emails.
I'm going to give you several different numbers. First, I'll give you the overall numbers, as in the collective 50-100% predictions for winner, spread, and o/u. Then you'll get their numbers broken down. I'll show you weekly trends, % trends, etc.
Overall numbers:
Winner: 65-34 (65.7%)
Spread: 47-45 (51.5%)
O/U: 50-43 (53.8%)
Spread and O/U combined: 97-88 (53.8%)
Accuscore numbers:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Accuscore has a slight edge when picking the winner, I have a slight edge picking ATS, and Accuscore has a sizeable advantage picking O/U. BUT! Let's look at how Black Box Sports picks compare when confidence is at least 60%. This confidence is really where NFLSim shines. Here is Black Box Sports's record when the confidence is over 60% compared to Accuscore's overall record (can't find any confidence values for picks). Fasten your seat belts.
Black Box Sports +60%:
Winner: 41-19 (68.3%) ... 22-8 (73.3%) when greater than 70%
Spread: 36-21 (63.2%)
O/U: 21-10 (67.7%)
Spread and O/U: 57-31 (64.7%)
Betting 100 units on the spread and over/under, you made +2290, ROI of 26%, halfway through the season.
Once again, Accuscore's numbers:
Accuscore:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Picking the winner, I'm ahead by 1.4% when at least 60% confidence, 6.4% when at least 70% confidence. Spread, I'm ahead by 12.7%. O/U, up by 10.5%. Combined, I'm up by 10.6%. That's what I'm talking about. Not to mention I offer all the picks for free... Spread the word everyone.
In tabular format:
| Winner | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 24 | 39 | 61.5% | |
| 60-69 | 19 | 30 | 63.3% | |
| 70-79 | 17 | 24 | 70.8% | |
| 80-89 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 90-100 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Total | 65 | 99 | 65.7% | |
| Spread | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 11 | 35 | 31.4% | |
| 60-69 | 24 | 37 | 64.9% | |
| 70-79 | 11 | 16 | 68.8% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 90-100 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 47 | 92 | 51.1% | |
| Over | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 29 | 62 | 46.8% | |
| 60-69 | 15 | 22 | 68.2% | |
| 70-79 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| 90-100 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 50 | 93 | 53.8% |
S&O/U | ||||
| 50-59 | 40 | 97 | 41.2% | |
| 60-69 | 39 | 59 | 66.1% | |
| 70-79 | 13 | 20 | 65.0% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 90-100 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 97 | 185 | 52.4% |
Graphically:
Theoretically, as in, if NFLSim was a perfect analog of reality, those dashed lines would be perfectly in line with the thick black line. It would mean that the confidence values are always spot on and the games end exactly the way they should. If the trend (dashed) lines are below the thick line, the confidence values are not as accurate as reality. The more parallel the thick and trend lines are, the more accurate the changes in confidenc values are, i.e., as confidence increases, the accuracy increases at the correct rate. If that makes any sense. This graph shows all the picks.
You'll notice that above, the win % for 90-100 is at 50%. In week 3, the 90.03% favorite NE lost to MIA. 0.03% is just about a difference of 1 game in the entire set of hundreds and hundreds of simulated games. Had NE been an 89.97% favorite, the graph would look like this:
Check out the 'Wins' line. The Wins line overlaps the theoretical line. You can't even see it. That's absolutely absurd, especially after 100 games. The trendline has a slope of .09, compared to the theoretical line's .1. The "Wins" trendline has an R-squared value (a measure of how closely the data points fit the line) of 0.89. Absolutely insane. In general, I try to temper my enthusiasm, but this is unbelievable... This means that when NFLSim says a team will win 63% of the time, that team will win 63% of the time. For those of you math-minded people, the expected number of wins is approximately 64.15. The actual number of wins is 65. That blows my mind.
Here's a team-by-team accuracy breakdown:
| Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % | |
| ARI | 83.3% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| ATL | 66.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| BAL | 57.1% | 42.9% | 71.4% |
| BUF | 66.7% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| CAR | 83.3% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| CHI | 50.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| CIN | 71.4% | 71.4% | 33.3% |
| CLE | 42.9% | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| DAL | 57.1% | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| DEN | 50.0% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| DET | 100.0% | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| GB | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| HOU | 71.4% | 57.1% | 85.7% |
| IND | 33.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| JAX | 33.3% | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| KC | 83.3% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| MIA | 33.3% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| MIN | 83.3% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| NE | 33.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| NO | 66.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| NYG | 66.7% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| NYJ | 71.4% | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| OAK | 57.1% | 14.3% | 57.1% |
| PHI | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| PIT | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| SD | 83.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| SEA | 83.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| SF | 50.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| STL | 57.1% | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| TB | 71.4% | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| TEN | 100.0% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| WAS | 42.9% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
I'll post some more stats if I have a chance.
Enjoy!
I'd love to hear everyone's reactions and questions, so don't be shy, send me some emails.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Week 9: Predictions
ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%
BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%
TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%
MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%
ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%
DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%
NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%
PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%
BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%
TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%
MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%
ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%
DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%
NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%
PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Week 8: Results
This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week 7: Results
I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 60-69 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Friday, October 17, 2008
Week 7: Predictions
Here are the week 7 predictions. Upsets include: MIN, GB, OAK, DEN.
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Week 6: Results
Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 3 | 11 | 27.3% | |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
Friday, October 10, 2008
Week 6: Predictions
Better late than never.
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Week 5: Results
I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).
Tie is Blue
SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Tie is Blue
SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
| Straight | % | Correct | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Spread | % | Correct | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | |
| Total | Correct | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
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