Week 10: Predictions

Ok, here's the new format. Same thing as before, but no I add the average scores as well. Underneath the matchup are the average scores. DEN's average score over the course of 500 simulations was 21.25 and CLE's average score was 21.40. Average scores aren't predictions of the score, they're just measures of relative performance. Every once in a while, one team will be favored to win even though on average they score less. This is the case with the DEN game. I wish there was an easier way to cram more stats into each game, but this blog format is really limiting.

I'm also planning on posting games as I finish them. One last change, instead of reposting everything an a "Results" section, i'm going to color everything in the "Prediction" section. A small "Results" section will sum up the weekend.

Only 2 upsets this week, DEN over CLE (52%) and HOU over BAL (57%). More 'UNDER's than usual. More favorites covering the spread, as well.

DEN at CLE -3.5, 45.5
DEN: 21.25
CLE: 21.40
Winner: DEN, 52%
Spread: DEN +3.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

BAL -1 at HOU, 42
BAL: 21.57
HOU: 23.12
Winner: HOU, 57%
Spread: HOU +1, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

BUF at NE -3.5, 41.5
BUF: 22.10
NE: 23.41
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: BUF +3.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

GB at MIN -2, 45.5
GB: 19.95
MIN: 23.45
Winner: MIN, 57%
Spread: MIN -2, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

JAX -6.5 at DET, 44.5
JAX: 24.65
DET: 22.00
Winner: JAX, 56%
Spread: DET +6.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 56%

NO at ATL -1, 50
NO: 22.22
ATL: 26.39
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: ATL -1, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

SEA at MIA -8.5, 43
SEA: 17.19
MIA: 29.42
Winner: MIA, 79%
Spread: MIA -8.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 59%

STL at NYJ -8.5, 44
STL: 19.05
NYJ: 27.06
Winner: NYJ, 70%
Spread: STL +8.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 53%

TEN -3 at CHI, 38.5
TEN: 22.33
CHI: 18.47
Winner: TEN, 60%
Spread: CHI +3, 51%
O/U: OVER, 52%

CAR -9.5 at OAK, 37.5
CAR: 21.15
OAK: 19.93
Winner: CAR, 54%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 58%

IND at PIT -3.5, 39.5
IND: 17.97
PIT: 22.27
Winner: PIT, 62%
Spread: PIT -3.5, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

KC at SD -15, 47
KC: 18.93
SD: 26.02
Winner: SD, 70%
Spread: KC +15, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 60%

NYG at PHI -3, 43.5
NYG: 18.88
PHI: 25.48
Winner: PHI, 65%
Spread: PHI -3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 52%

SF at ARI -9.5, 45.5
SF: 20.34
ARI: 24.25
Winner: ARI, 63%
Spread: SF +9.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 57%