Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.
NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%
HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%
SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
Showing posts with label Over/Under. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Over/Under. Show all posts
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Week 8: Results
This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
Friday, October 24, 2008
Week 8: Predictions
Sorry about the delay, folks. Only 3 upsets this week: MIA, NO, and TB. The biggest favorite is TEN over IND (79%), closely followed by HOU over CIN (78%). There are lots of overs and very few teams cover the spread. Still unsure about the Dallas game. For some reason, Vegas has them as a favorite, but the way they played last week, I don't know...
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week 7: Results
I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 60-69 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Friday, October 17, 2008
Week 7: Predictions
Here are the week 7 predictions. Upsets include: MIN, GB, OAK, DEN.
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
Something interesting, if Tony Romo played, the Cowboys would be a 66% favorite, averaging 26 pts. Without him, they're a 51% favorite, averaging 21 pts. If anyone is curious about any other stats, send me an email and I'll post them. NFLSim generates virtually every team stat available on the NFL website.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: EVEN
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Week 6: Results
Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 3 | 11 | 27.3% | |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
Friday, October 10, 2008
Week 6: Predictions
Better late than never.
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Week 5: Results
I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).
Tie is Blue
SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Tie is Blue
SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
| Straight | % | Correct | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Spread | % | Correct | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | |
| Total | Correct | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Week 5: Predictions
SEA at NYG -7
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Monday, February 4, 2008
PLAYOFFS/SUPERBOWL w/ Spread and O/U
| Playoff Rd 1 | Win % |
| WAS | |
| SEA | 71% |
| JAX | |
| PIT | 66% |
| NYG | |
| TB | 68% |
| TEN | |
| SD | 59% |
Wins: 2-2 50%
Spread and Over/Under were finally completed!
For spread and o/u, the percentage is the chance that the favorite team would cover the spread and that the total points would exceed the over. If the percentage for the spread is above 50%, if the favorite covers the spread, it's a win (green); if the favorite doesn't cover the spread, it's a loss (red). For a percentage below 50%, the favorite probably won't cover the spread. So if the favorite covers the spread, it's a loss; if the spread is not covered, it's a win.
To summarize: if the spread and over are above 50% (probably will happen) and the spread is covered and the points exceed the over, they are wins. If they are under 50% (cover and over probably won't happen) and the spread is not covered and the points fall below the over, they are wins. Visa versa for losses.
Example: SEA was projected to win 53%. They lost, so Win is red. The spread was predicted to be covered 27%. It was covered, against the probability, so it was a loss. The over was predicted 65%. Since the actual score went over the line, it was a win.
| Playoff Rd 2 | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| SEA | 53% | 27% | 65% |
| GB | |||
| JAX | |||
| NE | 63% | 31% | 53% |
| SD | |||
| IND | 69% | 46% | 22% |
| NYG | |||
| DAL | 72% | 49% | 45% |
Wins: 1-3 25%
Spread: 3-1 75%
O/U: 3-1 75%
| Playoff Rd 3 | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| SD | |||
| NE | 71% | 33% | 47% |
| NYG | |||
| GB | 64% | 41% | 61% |
Wins: 1-1 50%
Spread: 2-0 100%
O/U: 2-0 100%
| Superbowl | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| NYG | |||
| NE | 67% | 56% | 20% |
Wins: 0-1 0%
Spread: 0-1 0%
O/U: 1-0 100%
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