Monday, February 4, 2008

PLAYOFFS/SUPERBOWL w/ Spread and O/U

Playoff Rd 1 Win %
WAS
SEA 71%


JAX
PIT 66%


NYG
TB 68%


TEN
SD 59%

Wins: 2-2 50%


Spread and Over/Under were finally completed!
For spread and o/u, the percentage is the chance that the favorite team would cover the spread and that the total points would exceed the over. If the percentage for the spread is above 50%, if the favorite covers the spread, it's a win (green); if the favorite doesn't cover the spread, it's a loss (red). For a percentage below 50%, the favorite probably won't cover the spread. So if the favorite covers the spread, it's a loss; if the spread is not covered, it's a win.
To summarize: if the spread and over are above 50% (probably will happen) and the spread is covered and the points exceed the over, they are wins. If they are under 50% (cover and over probably won't happen) and the spread is not covered and the points fall below the over, they are wins. Visa versa for losses.

Example: SEA was projected to win 53%. They lost, so Win is red. The spread was predicted to be covered 27%. It was covered, against the probability, so it was a loss. The over was predicted 65%. Since the actual score went over the line, it was a win.

Playoff Rd 2 Win % Cover Spread % Over %
SEA 53% 27% 65%
GB






JAX


NE 63% 31% 53%




SD


IND 69% 46% 22%




NYG


DAL 72% 49% 45%

Wins: 1-3 25%
Spread: 3-1 75%
O/U: 3-1 75%


Playoff Rd 3 Win % Cover Spread % Over %
SD


NE 71% 33% 47%




NYG


GB 64% 41% 61%

Wins: 1-1 50%
Spread: 2-0 100%
O/U: 2-0 100%

Superbowl Win % Cover Spread % Over %
NYG


NE 67% 56% 20%

Wins: 0-1 0%
Spread: 0-1 0%
O/U: 1-0 100%

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