Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.
NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%
CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%
HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%
SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Midseason Progressive Results
And now, what everyone's been waiting for. We're about halfway through the season, so I think it's time to post NFLSim's impressive progressive results. I chose to leave out week 2 because It was still too early for me to be making predictions based on 1 week of data. I'm going to post Accuscore's results as well for a comparison. They're the only other play-by-play NFL simulator I know of and they're a well established, well funded, syndicated, sponsored, and mathematically sophisticated operation. David and Goliath? Let's see...
I'm going to give you several different numbers. First, I'll give you the overall numbers, as in the collective 50-100% predictions for winner, spread, and o/u. Then you'll get their numbers broken down. I'll show you weekly trends, % trends, etc.
Overall numbers:
Winner: 65-34 (65.7%)
Spread: 47-45 (51.5%)
O/U: 50-43 (53.8%)
Spread and O/U combined: 97-88 (53.8%)
Accuscore numbers:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Accuscore has a slight edge when picking the winner, I have a slight edge picking ATS, and Accuscore has a sizeable advantage picking O/U. BUT! Let's look at how Black Box Sports picks compare when confidence is at least 60%. This confidence is really where NFLSim shines. Here is Black Box Sports's record when the confidence is over 60% compared to Accuscore's overall record (can't find any confidence values for picks). Fasten your seat belts.
Black Box Sports +60%:
Winner: 41-19 (68.3%) ... 22-8 (73.3%) when greater than 70%
Spread: 36-21 (63.2%)
O/U: 21-10 (67.7%)
Spread and O/U: 57-31 (64.7%)
Betting 100 units on the spread and over/under, you made +2290, ROI of 26%, halfway through the season.
Once again, Accuscore's numbers:
Accuscore:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Picking the winner, I'm ahead by 1.4% when at least 60% confidence, 6.4% when at least 70% confidence. Spread, I'm ahead by 12.7%. O/U, up by 10.5%. Combined, I'm up by 10.6%. That's what I'm talking about. Not to mention I offer all the picks for free... Spread the word everyone.
In tabular format:
Graphically:
Theoretically, as in, if NFLSim was a perfect analog of reality, those dashed lines would be perfectly in line with the thick black line. It would mean that the confidence values are always spot on and the games end exactly the way they should. If the trend (dashed) lines are below the thick line, the confidence values are not as accurate as reality. The more parallel the thick and trend lines are, the more accurate the changes in confidenc values are, i.e., as confidence increases, the accuracy increases at the correct rate. If that makes any sense. This graph shows all the picks.
You'll notice that above, the win % for 90-100 is at 50%. In week 3, the 90.03% favorite NE lost to MIA. 0.03% is just about a difference of 1 game in the entire set of hundreds and hundreds of simulated games. Had NE been an 89.97% favorite, the graph would look like this:
Check out the 'Wins' line. The Wins line overlaps the theoretical line. You can't even see it. That's absolutely absurd, especially after 100 games. The trendline has a slope of .09, compared to the theoretical line's .1. The "Wins" trendline has an R-squared value (a measure of how closely the data points fit the line) of 0.89. Absolutely insane. In general, I try to temper my enthusiasm, but this is unbelievable... This means that when NFLSim says a team will win 63% of the time, that team will win 63% of the time. For those of you math-minded people, the expected number of wins is approximately 64.15. The actual number of wins is 65. That blows my mind.
Here's a team-by-team accuracy breakdown:
I'll post some more stats if I have a chance.
Enjoy!
I'd love to hear everyone's reactions and questions, so don't be shy, send me some emails.
I'm going to give you several different numbers. First, I'll give you the overall numbers, as in the collective 50-100% predictions for winner, spread, and o/u. Then you'll get their numbers broken down. I'll show you weekly trends, % trends, etc.
Overall numbers:
Winner: 65-34 (65.7%)
Spread: 47-45 (51.5%)
O/U: 50-43 (53.8%)
Spread and O/U combined: 97-88 (53.8%)
Accuscore numbers:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Accuscore has a slight edge when picking the winner, I have a slight edge picking ATS, and Accuscore has a sizeable advantage picking O/U. BUT! Let's look at how Black Box Sports picks compare when confidence is at least 60%. This confidence is really where NFLSim shines. Here is Black Box Sports's record when the confidence is over 60% compared to Accuscore's overall record (can't find any confidence values for picks). Fasten your seat belts.
Black Box Sports +60%:
Winner: 41-19 (68.3%) ... 22-8 (73.3%) when greater than 70%
Spread: 36-21 (63.2%)
O/U: 21-10 (67.7%)
Spread and O/U: 57-31 (64.7%)
Betting 100 units on the spread and over/under, you made +2290, ROI of 26%, halfway through the season.
Once again, Accuscore's numbers:
Accuscore:
Winner: 87-43 (66.9%)
Spread: 51-50 (50.5%)
O/U: 67-50 (57.2%)
Spread and O/U combined: 118-100 (54.1%)
Picking the winner, I'm ahead by 1.4% when at least 60% confidence, 6.4% when at least 70% confidence. Spread, I'm ahead by 12.7%. O/U, up by 10.5%. Combined, I'm up by 10.6%. That's what I'm talking about. Not to mention I offer all the picks for free... Spread the word everyone.
In tabular format:
| Winner | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 24 | 39 | 61.5% | |
| 60-69 | 19 | 30 | 63.3% | |
| 70-79 | 17 | 24 | 70.8% | |
| 80-89 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 90-100 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Total | 65 | 99 | 65.7% | |
| Spread | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 11 | 35 | 31.4% | |
| 60-69 | 24 | 37 | 64.9% | |
| 70-79 | 11 | 16 | 68.8% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 90-100 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 47 | 92 | 51.1% | |
| Over | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 29 | 62 | 46.8% | |
| 60-69 | 15 | 22 | 68.2% | |
| 70-79 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| 90-100 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 50 | 93 | 53.8% |
S&O/U | ||||
| 50-59 | 40 | 97 | 41.2% | |
| 60-69 | 39 | 59 | 66.1% | |
| 70-79 | 13 | 20 | 65.0% | |
| 80-89 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 90-100 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | |
| Total | 97 | 185 | 52.4% |
Graphically:
Theoretically, as in, if NFLSim was a perfect analog of reality, those dashed lines would be perfectly in line with the thick black line. It would mean that the confidence values are always spot on and the games end exactly the way they should. If the trend (dashed) lines are below the thick line, the confidence values are not as accurate as reality. The more parallel the thick and trend lines are, the more accurate the changes in confidenc values are, i.e., as confidence increases, the accuracy increases at the correct rate. If that makes any sense. This graph shows all the picks.
You'll notice that above, the win % for 90-100 is at 50%. In week 3, the 90.03% favorite NE lost to MIA. 0.03% is just about a difference of 1 game in the entire set of hundreds and hundreds of simulated games. Had NE been an 89.97% favorite, the graph would look like this:
Check out the 'Wins' line. The Wins line overlaps the theoretical line. You can't even see it. That's absolutely absurd, especially after 100 games. The trendline has a slope of .09, compared to the theoretical line's .1. The "Wins" trendline has an R-squared value (a measure of how closely the data points fit the line) of 0.89. Absolutely insane. In general, I try to temper my enthusiasm, but this is unbelievable... This means that when NFLSim says a team will win 63% of the time, that team will win 63% of the time. For those of you math-minded people, the expected number of wins is approximately 64.15. The actual number of wins is 65. That blows my mind.
Here's a team-by-team accuracy breakdown:
| Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % | |
| ARI | 83.3% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| ATL | 66.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| BAL | 57.1% | 42.9% | 71.4% |
| BUF | 66.7% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| CAR | 83.3% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| CHI | 50.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| CIN | 71.4% | 71.4% | 33.3% |
| CLE | 42.9% | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| DAL | 57.1% | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| DEN | 50.0% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| DET | 100.0% | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| GB | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| HOU | 71.4% | 57.1% | 85.7% |
| IND | 33.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| JAX | 33.3% | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| KC | 83.3% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| MIA | 33.3% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| MIN | 83.3% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| NE | 33.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| NO | 66.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| NYG | 66.7% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| NYJ | 71.4% | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| OAK | 57.1% | 14.3% | 57.1% |
| PHI | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| PIT | 50.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| SD | 83.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| SEA | 83.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| SF | 50.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| STL | 57.1% | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| TB | 71.4% | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| TEN | 100.0% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| WAS | 42.9% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
I'll post some more stats if I have a chance.
Enjoy!
I'd love to hear everyone's reactions and questions, so don't be shy, send me some emails.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Week 9: Predictions
ARI -3 at STL, 48
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%
BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%
TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%
MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%
ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%
DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%
NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%
PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
Winner: ARI, 51%
Spread: STL +3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 54%
BAL at CLE -1.5, 36.5
Winner: BAL, 59%
Spread: BAL +1.5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
DET at CHI -13, 43
Winner: CHI, 79%
Spread: DET +13, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
GB at TEN -5.5, 41.5
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: GB +5.5, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at MIN -4.5, 47
Winner: MIN, 51%
Spread: HOU +4.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
JAX -7.5 at CIN, 40
Winner: JAX, 59%
Spread: CIN +7.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 61%
NYJ at BUF -5.5, 42
Winner: BUF, 66%
Spread: BUF -5.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 55%
TB -9 at KC, 36.5
Winner: TB, 60%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: OVER, 68%
MIA at DEN -3.5, 49
Winner: MIA, 56%
Spread: MIA +3.5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 55%
ATL -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 54%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 61%
DAL at NYG -9, 41
Winner: NYG, 79%
Spread: DAL +9, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
PHI -7 at SEA, 43
Winner: PHI, 76%
Spread: SEA +7, 52%
O/U: OVER, 60%
NE at IND -6, 44
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: NE +6, 74%
O/U: OVER, 58%
PIT at WAS -1.5, 37
Winner: WAS, 67%
Spread: WAS -1.5, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Week 8: Results
This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 12 | 66.7% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%
BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%
KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%
OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%
TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%
CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%
SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%
IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week 7: Results
I'm happy with this week's straight pick results. Hit 2 out of 4 upsets. Hit 10 out of 14 total (71.4%). The picks that lost had confidences of 51, 52, 53, and 67%. I can live with that. I'm very happy with the result of the Dallas - St. Louis game. My injury adjuster worked very well. In fact, the average simulated scores actually had STL outscoring DAL 21.79 to 21.02. That was one of the rare times that the average scores disagree with the win %.
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
These occurrences include: Week 7, MIN 52% (Correct), CHI 20.29 to MIN 20.13; Week 6, GB 54% (Correct), GB 24.95 to SEA 25.05. So when confidence and average point differentials disagree, confidence is 2-1.
It's also encouraging that as confidence % increases, accuracy increases. The progressive results are looking good. After the half-way point of the season, I'll write up a detailed report.
BOA had a great week, up 91%, further proving the volatility which I'm not comfortable with.
By the way, if I ever make any mistakes, let me know so I can fix it.
BAL at MIA -3, 36.5
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 60%
DAL -7 at STL, 43.5
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: STL +7, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
MIN at CHI -3, 38
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NO at CAR -3, 44.5
Winner: CAR, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
PIT -9.5 at CIN, 35
Winner: PIT, 60%
Spread: CIN +9.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 62%
SD at BUF EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 64%
Spread: BUF, 64%
O/U: OVER, 55%
SF at NYG -10.5, 46
Winner: NYG, 67%
Spread: SF +10.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
TEN -9 at KC, 35.5
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: KC +9, 61%
O/U: OVER, 66%
DET at HOU -9.5, 46.5
Winner: HOU, 82%
Spread: HOU -9.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CLE at WAS -7, 42
Winner: WAS, 77%
Spread: WAS -7, 55%
O/U: OVER, 53%
IND -2 at GB, 47
Winner: GB, 60%
Spread: GB +2, 65%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
NYJ -3 at OAK, 41
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +3, 65%
O/U: OVER, 63%
SEA at TB -10.5, 38
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: SEA +10.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 63%
DEN at NE -3, 48
Winner: DEN, 53%
Spread: DEN +3, 63%
O/U: OVER, 53%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 60-69 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 10 | 14 | 71.4% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6 | 66.7% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Friday, October 10, 2008
Week 6: Predictions
Better late than never.
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Week 6 Upsets: BAL, ATL, MIA, OAK, GB. Last week, NFLSim went 3-2 with upsets, so let's see how it does this week.
BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%
CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%
CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%
DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%
MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%
OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%
DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%
PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%
NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%
NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Week 5: Predictions
SEA at NYG -7
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
WAS at PHI -6
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%
SD -6.5 at MIA
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%
KC at CAR -9.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
TEN -3 at BAL
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%
IND -3.5 at HOU
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI -3.5 at DET
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%
ATL at GB -3.5
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%
TB at DEN -3
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CIN at DAL -17
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BUF at ARI EVEN
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -3.5 at SF
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PIT at JAX -4
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%
MIN at NO -3
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN+6, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
Monday, September 1, 2008
Just a Reminder...
Just a reminder, everyone: The predictions begin week 2, that's Sunday, Sept. 14. Since I need numbers to use in the simulation, I can't simulate week 1. I hate the wait but I'd rather hold off a week than B.S. some results and risk getting off to a bad start.
So keep coming back to NFL Black Box, I'll be posting a new article soon. If anyone has a question they'd like answered, send it in. Else, I'll think of something interesting to write about.
Jonathan
Black Box Sports
P.S. Sweet new logo, right?
So keep coming back to NFL Black Box, I'll be posting a new article soon. If anyone has a question they'd like answered, send it in. Else, I'll think of something interesting to write about.
Jonathan
Black Box Sports
P.S. Sweet new logo, right?
Monday, February 4, 2008
PLAYOFFS/SUPERBOWL w/ Spread and O/U
| Playoff Rd 1 | Win % |
| WAS | |
| SEA | 71% |
| JAX | |
| PIT | 66% |
| NYG | |
| TB | 68% |
| TEN | |
| SD | 59% |
Wins: 2-2 50%
Spread and Over/Under were finally completed!
For spread and o/u, the percentage is the chance that the favorite team would cover the spread and that the total points would exceed the over. If the percentage for the spread is above 50%, if the favorite covers the spread, it's a win (green); if the favorite doesn't cover the spread, it's a loss (red). For a percentage below 50%, the favorite probably won't cover the spread. So if the favorite covers the spread, it's a loss; if the spread is not covered, it's a win.
To summarize: if the spread and over are above 50% (probably will happen) and the spread is covered and the points exceed the over, they are wins. If they are under 50% (cover and over probably won't happen) and the spread is not covered and the points fall below the over, they are wins. Visa versa for losses.
Example: SEA was projected to win 53%. They lost, so Win is red. The spread was predicted to be covered 27%. It was covered, against the probability, so it was a loss. The over was predicted 65%. Since the actual score went over the line, it was a win.
| Playoff Rd 2 | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| SEA | 53% | 27% | 65% |
| GB | |||
| JAX | |||
| NE | 63% | 31% | 53% |
| SD | |||
| IND | 69% | 46% | 22% |
| NYG | |||
| DAL | 72% | 49% | 45% |
Wins: 1-3 25%
Spread: 3-1 75%
O/U: 3-1 75%
| Playoff Rd 3 | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| SD | |||
| NE | 71% | 33% | 47% |
| NYG | |||
| GB | 64% | 41% | 61% |
Wins: 1-1 50%
Spread: 2-0 100%
O/U: 2-0 100%
| Superbowl | Win % | Cover Spread % | Over % |
| NYG | |||
| NE | 67% | 56% | 20% |
Wins: 0-1 0%
Spread: 0-1 0%
O/U: 1-0 100%
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
