Week 8: Results

This past week was an amazing week. Perhaps the best week yet. NFLSim knocked 'em out of the park, going 2 for 3 with underdogs (missed TB), 10-4 (71.4%) picking the winner, 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread, and 7-6 (53.8%) against the O/U. The spread and O/U combined for 15-10 (60%). Even BOA, which I've been tracking, but not posting, returned a solid 19%.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	4	75.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	4	4	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	14	71.4%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	7	57.1%
	60-69	4	4	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	12	66.7%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	11	54.5%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	13	53.8%

ARI at CAR -4, 43.5
Winner: CAR, 57%
Spread: ARI +4, 59%
O/U: OVER, 51%

ATL at PHI -9, 45
Winner: PHI, 75%
Spread: ATL +9, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%

BUF -1.5 at MIA, 42
Winner: MIA, 54%
Spread: MIA +1.5, 54%
O/U: OVER, 60%

KC at NYJ -13.5, 39
Winner: NYJ, 72%
Spread: KC +13.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 71%

OAK at BAL -7.5, 36
Winner: BAL, 65%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

SD -3 at NO, 46
Winner: NO, 54%
Spread: NO +3, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

STL at NE -7, 43.5
Winner: NE, 67%
Spread: STL +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 56%

TB at DAL -1.5, 40.5
Winner: TB, 68%
Spread: TB +1.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

WAS -7.5 at DET, 42
Winner: WAS, 69%
Spread: DET +7.5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 62%

CIN at HOU -9, 44.5
Winner: HOU, 78%
Spread: HOU -9, 56%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CLE at JAX -7, 42
Winner: JAX, 60%
Spread: CLE +7, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG at PIT -3, 42
Winner: PIT, 56%
Spread: NYG +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 57%

SEA at SF -5, 41
Winner: SF, 60%
Spread: SEA +5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 52%

IND at TEN -4, 41
Winner: TEN, 79%
Spread: TEN -4, 69%
O/U: OVER, 51%

Week 3: BOA Results

I'm going to be brief with the results this week. I've had a ton of work this week and I'm a little short on time. BOA was down 78% this week. The probability of all of those teams losing was 0.2%, nice. Watching this go up 65% week 2, down 78% week 4, it tells me that there's too much huge swings. This isn't good for a long term strategy. I'm going to work on it to figure out better risk management. Until then, I'm going to stop posting it.

Week 3: BOA Results

Wow. Things almost couldn't have gone any better. I say this because I'm extremely pleased with how BOA performed this week. It spread out the risk while still offering a high level of reward. 7 of the 9 teams were correct. 10 of the 19 bets were correct. If only Vegas' 12.5 point favorite, my 90% favorite had beaten one of the worst teams in the league, I'd be much, much happier. So for week 3, if you started with a bankroll of $100, you would have lost $14.38, or -14.38%. I hate to play the 'what if' game, but I can't help myself this week. What if the 12.5 pt favorite, NE, had decided to beat MIA? $100 would have turned into $157.79. Fine. There's always next week.

Tracking BOA: Week 2, started with $100. Up 64.62% week 2, down 14.38% week 3.
Initial Investment: $100
Current Investment: $140.95
ROI: 40.95%

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Week 3: BOA

Originally, I decided to put up a simplified version of BOA's results. Bad idea. I'll need to mention a few things first. I chose to leave out bets against the spread and just include moneyline bets, for now. The fundamental reason BOA works is because of inefficiencies in Vegas' line making. After simulating last season, and after extensive backtesting, NFLSim showed a remarkable tendency to assign accurate probability values for games. BOA exploits this. The only way BOA can be successful is if it assigns the correct probabilites to games, enabling for an optimal allocation of funds to different bets with different payouts. The second important point is that every bet is a different amount, based on the difference in those probabilities. Again, I don't feel that the spread predictions have reached that point yet, though I am comfortable with just striaght picking.

At some point I'd like to write up a rigorous mathematical proof showing why this works, but I'll need to meet up with my statistics professor for that.

Before using this table, consider that the season is just beginning; this is only week 3, so the simulations aren't as accurate as they will be. I can't tell you not to bet, but just keep that in mind.

Since Baltimore's win % against Cleveland is so ridiculously high (97%), I decided to run BOA using a more conservative 80%. At 97%, BAL showed up in pretty much every bet. If BAL loses, lots of bets would lose. Better safe than sorry. If you can't tell by now, I like to err on the side of conservatism.

Once more, this is what each heading means:
~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the particular bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll that should be devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)

Here is the team key, each number corresponds to a particular bet. 1-ATL means that when you see the number 1, it means bet on ATL to win. If you see 5,7, it means parlay NE and TEN.

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Alright, let's look at this. That table is based on a bankroll of $100. One of the other reasons BOA works is because it spreads risk over numerous bets in a way such that if one bet fails, other bets can still keep you afloat. If you don't feel like making 19 bets, my advice would be to scale the bets that you do make. If you only want to make the top 5 bets, for example, add the top 5 "% BANKROLLs" together. To find the new percentage to bet, divide that bet's "% BANKROLL" by the sum of the 5 "% BANKROLLs". So... 7.21+6.94+6.2+6.12+5.79 = 32.25. Bet 1 will be 7.21/32.25 = 22.36%. Bet 2 will be 6.94/32.35 = 21.51%, and so on. All 5 percentages should add up to 100%.

As you decrease the number of bets, you increase the amount of risk. For example, if you bet all 19 bets and and all teams win except 5-NE, which has a 90% confidence, you will lose 7.91% of your bankroll. If you decide to only bet the top 5 bets, you'll lose 22.36%. It's about all about your tolerance for risk, which is yours to figure out.

I hope this makes everyone happy. If not, send me some angry emails.

Bet Optimization Algorithm

The results for week 2 were none too impressive, but this makes my Bet Optimization Algorithm ("BOA") look much better. Simply put, BOA takes up to 21 individual bets, i.e. NYG win, MIA win, DAL win, MIN +3, etc., the payouts on those bets that Vegas offers, and the confidence NFLSim generates. Using the algorithms, BOA generates the optimal bets as well as what percentage of your bankroll you should wager on each bet. It spits out single bets and parlays of up to 6 teams. I didn't post the BOA's suggestions last week because I didn't want anyone relying on it, but I'll put them up for week 3. Keep in mind, it's still early in the season so things aren't as accurate as they could be, so be careful. Use at your own risk. Anyway, here's what it said to bet on last week. It generated a return on investment of 64% on the bets (all 31 of them). I'd say that's pretty successful.

To make it easier for me, I assign a number to each bet. All bets are on straight up winners on the moneyline, NO SPREAD. If there are numbers separated by a commas, those are parlays. All calculations are based on a total bankroll of $100. Makes calculations easier.

~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)
~"ACTUAL PAYOUT" is 0.00 if the bet loses or POSSIBLE PAYOUT if it wins.

1-BUF, 2-CHI, 3-DET, 4-MIN, 5-NO, 6-NYG, 7-KC, 8-TEN, 9-ATL, 10-SF, 11-BAL, 12-ARI, 13-NYJ, 14-DEN, 15-PIT, 16-PHI

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% OF BANKROLL	POSSIBLE PAYOUT			ACTUAL PAYOUT
15	91.00%	1.36	4.72%	6.41			6.41
9	80.00%	3.50	4.15%	14.53			0.00
10	79.00%	3.50	4.08%	14.28			14.28
7	81.00%	1.51	3.82%	5.77			0.00
8	79.00%	1.95	3.81%	7.44			7.44
9,15	72.80%	4.76	3.75%	17.85			0.00
10,15	71.89%	4.76	3.69%	17.55			17.55
8,15	71.89%	2.65	3.43%	9.08			9.08
14	74.00%	2.00	3.41%	6.82			6.82
7,15	73.71%	2.05	3.40%	6.99			0.00
9,10	63.20%	12.25	3.36%	41.21			0.00
7,9	64.80%	5.29	3.25%	17.17			0.00
8,9	63.20%	6.83	3.23%	22.05			0.00
7,10	63.99%	5.29	3.20%	16.89			0.00
8,10	62.41%	6.83	3.18%	21.70			21.70
6	76.00%	1.20	3.13%	3.76			3.76
14,15	67.34%	2.72	3.09%	8.41			8.41
16	65.00%	3.50	3.07%	10.76			0.00
9,10,15	57.51%	16.66	3.07%	51.17			0.00
9,14	59.20%	7.00	2.98%	20.88			0.00
7,9,15	58.97%	7.19	2.98%	21.39			0.00
8,9,15	57.51%	9.28	2.96%	27.46			0.00
10,14	58.46%	7.00	2.94%	20.55			20.55
7,10,15	58.23%	7.19	2.93%	21.06			0.00
8,10,15	56.79%	9.28	2.91%	27.05			27.05
7,8	63.99%	2.94	2.89%	8.52			0.00
1	64.00%	2.90	2.88%	8.36			8.36
6,9	60.80%	4.20	2.88%	12.08			0.00
7,8,9,10,15	36.80%	49.06	1.98%	97.36			0.00
7,9,10,15	46.58%	25.16	2.48%	62.51			0.00
1,8	50.56%	5.66	2.34%	13.22			13.22

Total Bankroll: $100
Total Winnings: $164.62
Total Profit: $64.62
Return on Investment: 64.62%

So even when the predictions aren't terribly accurate (53.3%), BOA is able to perform well based on the idea that the probabilities generated by NFLSim are equivalent to the probabilities in reality. Hopefully, for everyone, this will continue.

Status of this season's picks

Hey Blackboxers (visitors to this site will now be referred to as Blackboxers),

The website www.capperspicks.com has picked me up as a provisional handicapper. They've got a ton of great resources for anyone that's interested in sports betting or just sports in general. Lots of useful features like sportsbook reviews, a parlay calculator, articles on money management, different types of bets, glossary, etc. You can also find stats and trends and whatever you want.

Enough about them, let's talk about me. I'll be posting my picks for free in their forums (not sure which one yet, when I find out, I'll post the link). Also, I'm going to continue to post everything on this website... for FREE!... which will include:

- Predictions of the straight-up winners with confidence number (great for survivor pools)

- Picks ATS and over/under picks with their respective confidences

- Power rankings and ratings for offense, defense, and overall

- I'm going to post the optimal betting strategies which will include suggested bets and parlays, bets to stay away from, etc.

- Also, I got a request from a Blackboxer to post some stats NFLSim generates. These will include: Yards per Pass, Yards per Play, and Yards per Point. Bearing in mind that NFLSim generates more stats than you could ever want (any game stat you can find on the NFL website), I'm willing to oblige requests for the posting of certain stats.

That's all I can think of for now, but I'll be back soon with updates when I think of something else.

If anyone is betting in the preseason, you're crazy, but good luck to ya.