Tracking BOA: Week 2, started with $100. Up 64.62% week 2, down 14.38% week 3.
Initial Investment: $100
Current Investment: $140.95
ROI: 40.95%
1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD
| BET | BOA ODDS | VEGAS PAYOUT | % of BANKROLL | PAYOUT |
| 5 | 90.00% | 1.11 | 7.21% | 8.01 |
| 7 | 87.00% | 1.43 | 6.94% | 9.92 |
| 6 | 84.00% | 1.11 | 6.20% | 6.88 |
| 14 | 80.00% | 1.77 | 6.12% | 10.83 |
| 9 | 79.00% | 1.50 | 5.79% | 8.68 |
| 5,7 | 78.30% | 1.59 | 5.76% | 9.14 |
| 2 | 79.00% | 1.19 | 5.46% | 6.50 |
| 5,14 | 72.00% | 1.96 | 5.14% | 10.10 |
| 7,14 | 69.60% | 2.53 | 5.13% | 12.98 |
| 6,7 | 73.08% | 1.59 | 5.00% | 7.93 |
| 5,6 | 75.60% | 1.23 | 4.97% | 6.12 |
| 7,9 | 68.73% | 2.15 | 4.82% | 10.35 |
| 5,9 | 71.10% | 1.67 | 4.79% | 7.97 |
| 13 | 71.00% | 1.43 | 4.52% | 6.46 |
| 5,7,14 | 62.64% | 2.81 | 4.50% | 12.64 |
| 11 | 70.00% | 1.40 | 4.48% | 6.28 |
| 10 | 71.00% | 1.20 | 4.39% | 5.27 |
| 5,6,7 | 65.77% | 1.76 | 4.39% | 7.74 |
| 5,7,9 | 61.86% | 2.38 | 4.38% | 10.44 |
Pretty interesting concept. But something doesn't add up for me. How can the payout on a ML FAVORITE be higher than wager amount?
ReplyDeleteFor example, #7(Ten) you have listed as $6.94 wagered (6.94% of $100) but the payout was 9.92%?? Ten was a ML favorite in Vegas so you would have had to LAY money for them to win, so the payout should be smaller than the wager amount.
This case is repeated in all your bets.
Ah, sorry if that was confusing.
ReplyDeleteThe payout for TEN was 1.43 to 1. (I like to use decimal odds (e.g. 1.43) as opposed to centsline odds (e.g. -110) because they're easier to work with.) The amount wagered on TEN was $6.94. Therefore the payout on that bet was $6.94 * 1.43 = $9.92. The last column, PAYOUT, is in dollars.
The PAYOUT column includes the money that you laid down as well as the winnings from that bet. If you lay down $6.94 on TEN to win, and they win, as payout you receive the money you laid down ($6.94) in addition to the winnings ($1.43). That adds up to $9.92.
Hope that clears things up.
{thumbs up}
ReplyDeleteGot it... Thanks
Can you explain the math behind your BOA? I have perecntages I give to each team at winning their game su and wanted to run BOA on them.
ReplyDeleteThe exact makeup of BOA is super-secret, but I can share the basic principle. BOA does 2 things 1)It decides which bets to make using all combinations of up to 21 individual bets, using parlays up to 6 teams (only limited by Excel). That's over 82,000 distinct bets. 2)Determines the specific amount to wager on each bet.
ReplyDeleteSince it's super-secret, I can't divulge the details, but I'll give you the theory behind it.
Let's say you generate a percentage for a game. Let's say that percentage is 50%. That means, to break-even, given a large number of trials - using easy numbers, start with $100 and make each bet $1 - the break-even payout would have to be 2:1 or in decimal form 2.00. If you bet $1, 100 times, you will win 50 times (the probability is 50%). At a payout of 2.00, you win $2 for every win. At 50 wins, you make $100, leaving you where you started.
Now you assign a percentage of 33% to a game. What is the break-even bet? At 33% you win 33 bets, but in order to make back the $100 that you started with, the payout will have to be 3.03. (33 bets won * 3.03 payout = $100)
Get where this is going? One more example: 75%. You win 75 bets out of 100. The payout needs to be 1.33. (75 * 1.33 = $100)
In order to make money on a bet, your prediction % MUST be more accurate than Vegas' prediction %. That's absolutely fundamental. If your predictions are off, you'll lose money.
So how do you know what to bet on? The line that Vegas offers must pay more than the break-even odds you've calculated. Here's the trick to find break-even odds based on your calculated percentage:
1/(percentage) = Break-Even Odds
75%:
1/(.75) = 1.33
50%:
1/(.5) = 2.00
29%:
1/(.29) = 3.45
If you have a 75% game, and Vegas offers odds of 1.25, that's BAD, because you know that in order to just break-even, you need odds of at least 1.33. If Vegas pays 1.25, and you hit 75 games, you make $93.75 after 100 games, so you lose money in the long-run. If Vegas offers 1.42, that's GOOD because if you hit 75 games, you make $106.5.
This works on underdogs and favorites, so if you have a team set to win 90% of the time, you may want to check the payout for that 10% dog, it may just be a better deal.
Now you know why I only deal with decimal odds. Much easier to work with. (By the way, spreads and o/u bets pay 1.91)
To summarize:
~1/(percentage) = Break-Even Odds
~If Vegas odds are GREATER THAN break-even odds BET.
~If Vegas odds are LESS THAN break-even odds DO NOT BET.
That's the idea. A long-winded explanation of applied probability and expected value. Maybe this will help. Any other questions, don't hesitate to e-mail me.