Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.

Week 10: Results

Week 10 was disappointing in terms of ATS and O/U, but NFLSim picked 11-3 straight up, so it wasn't all bad. The 50-59% games really got slammed, but if you read the Midseason Progressive Results post, you wouldn't have bet on them anyway. After this week, 60+% ATS and O/U picks are still 61.3 and 66.7% on the season, respectively.

I just found out about another NFL simulator over at www.whatifsports.com, a division of Fox Sports. Actually, they've got a pretty cool setup. They let you simulate games using teams from different seasons. I can't find their pick record, but someone posted that they are 69.5% straight up and 53.7% ATS on the season. No confidence numbers were available. On the season they beat AccuScore and NFLSim by a few % points, but when picks are made based on confidence, NFLSim has a substantial edge.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	7	85.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	14	78.6%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	1	9	11.1%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	1	3	33.3%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	3	14	21.4%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	12	33.3%
	60-69	1	2	50.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	5	14	35.7%

Week 6: Results

Week 6 was an OK week. 2-3 with upsets, hitting ATL and GB. Not happy about MIA's loss. And CLE over NYG? Arguably the worst team in the NFL upsetting arguably the best team in the NFL. Any given Monday night... The win % and O/U % were a little disappointing, but can't complain about 57% spread.


BAL at IND -5, 39
Winner: BAL, 58%
Spread: BAL +5, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

CAR at TB -1, 36.5
Winner: TB, 58%
Spread: TB -1, 56%
O/U: OVER, 69%

CHI -3 at ATL, 43.5
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL +3, 67%
O/U: OVER, 58%

CIN at NYJ -6, 44.5
Winner: NYJ, 65%
Spread: CIN +6, 51%
O/U: OVER, 56%

DET at MIN -14, 45.5
Winner: MIN, 79%
Spread: DET +14, 61%
O/U: OVER, 59%

MIA at HOU -3, 44.5
Winner: MIA, 51%
Spread: MIA +3, 66%
O/U: OVER, 70%

OAK at NO -7.5, 47
Winner: OAK, 55%
Spread: OAK +7.5, 80%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

STL at WAS -13.5, 44.5
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: STL +13.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 54%

JAX at DEN -3.5, 48
Winner: DEN, 75%
Spread: DEN -3.5, 63%
O/U: OVER, 57%

DAL -6 at ARI, 50
Winner: DAL, 51%
Spread: ARI +6, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

GB at SEA -3, 47
Winner: GB, 54%
Spread: GB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 57%

PHI -5 at SF, 43
Winner: PHI, 59%
Spread: SF +5, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

NE at SD -6, 45
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: NE +6, 59%
O/U: OVER, 72%

NYG -8 at CLE, 43
Winner: NYG, 76%
Spread: NYG -8, 51%
O/U: OVER, 55%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	8	50.0%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	1	4	25.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	5	40.0%
	60-69	5	6	83.3%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	1	0.0%
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	14	57.1%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	11	27.3%
	60-69	0	1	0.0%
	70-79	1	2	50.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	4	14	28.6%

Week 5: Results

I'm happy with this week's performance. Picked 9 out of 14, beat Accuscore's 8 of 14. Also, out of the 5 underdogs NFLSim picked to win, 3 of them won (ATL, 3.5 pt dog; PIT, 4; MIN, 3).

Tie is Blue

SEA at NYG -7, 43.5
Winner: NYG, 70%
Spread: SEA +7, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

WAS at PHI -6, 42.5
Winner: PHI, 73%
Spread: PHI -6, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 56%

SD -6.5 at MIA, 44.5
Winner: SD, 54%
Spread: MIA +6.5, 67%
O/U: OVER, 72%

KC at CAR -9.5, 38.5
Winner: CAR, 61%
Spread: KC +9.5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at BAL, 33
Winner: TEN, 51%
Spread: BAL +3, 62%
O/U: OVER, 55%

IND -3.5 at HOU, 47
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 68%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI -3.5 at DET, 44.5
Winner: CHI, 73%
Spread: CHI -3.5, 64%
O/U: OVER, 57%

ATL at GB -3.5, 41
Winner: ATL, 67%
Spread: ATL +3.5, 74%
O/U: OVER, 64%

TB at DEN -3, 47.5
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: TB +3, 55%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CIN at DAL -17, 44
Winner: DAL, 73%
Spread: CIN +17, 72%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BUF at ARI EVEN, 44.5
Winner: BUF, 74%
Spread: ---
O/U: OVER, 51%

NE -3.5 at SF, 41
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: SF +3.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

PIT at JAX -4, 36
Winner: PIT, 61%
Spread: PIT +4, 72%
O/U: OVER, 62%

MIN at NO -3, 46.5
Winner: MIN, 52%
Spread: MIN +3, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

Straight	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	5	60.0%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	3	5	60.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	9	14	64.3%
Spread	%	Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	0	3	0.0%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	3	3	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	12	50.0%
Total		Correct	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	11	45.5%
	60-69	2	2	100.0%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	14	50.0%

Week 3: BOA Results

Wow. Things almost couldn't have gone any better. I say this because I'm extremely pleased with how BOA performed this week. It spread out the risk while still offering a high level of reward. 7 of the 9 teams were correct. 10 of the 19 bets were correct. If only Vegas' 12.5 point favorite, my 90% favorite had beaten one of the worst teams in the league, I'd be much, much happier. So for week 3, if you started with a bankroll of $100, you would have lost $14.38, or -14.38%. I hate to play the 'what if' game, but I can't help myself this week. What if the 12.5 pt favorite, NE, had decided to beat MIA? $100 would have turned into $157.79. Fine. There's always next week.

Tracking BOA: Week 2, started with $100. Up 64.62% week 2, down 14.38% week 3.
Initial Investment: $100
Current Investment: $140.95
ROI: 40.95%

1-ATL, 2-BUF, 3-CHI, 4-MIN, 5-NE, 6-NYG, 7-TEN, 8-WAS, 9-SF, 10-SEA, 11-DEN, 12-PHI, 13-IND, 14-BAL, 15-DAL, 16-SD

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% of BANKROLL	PAYOUT
5	90.00%	1.11	7.21%	8.01
7	87.00%	1.43	6.94%	9.92
6	84.00%	1.11	6.20%	6.88
14	80.00%	1.77	6.12%	10.83
9	79.00%	1.50	5.79%	8.68
5,7	78.30%	1.59	5.76%	9.14
2	79.00%	1.19	5.46%	6.50
5,14	72.00%	1.96	5.14%	10.10
7,14	69.60%	2.53	5.13%	12.98
6,7	73.08%	1.59	5.00%	7.93
5,6	75.60%	1.23	4.97%	6.12
7,9	68.73%	2.15	4.82%	10.35
5,9	71.10%	1.67	4.79%	7.97
13	71.00%	1.43	4.52%	6.46
5,7,14	62.64%	2.81	4.50%	12.64
11	70.00%	1.40	4.48%	6.28
10	71.00%	1.20	4.39%	5.27
5,6,7	65.77%	1.76	4.39%	7.74
5,7,9	61.86%	2.38	4.38%	10.44

Results through week 7

Yes, I'm only at week 7. I'm putting NFLSim away for a couple weeks to focus on basketball... nbablackbox.blogspot.com, where I'm 204-51 (80.0%), when picking the winner of the game. (no spread). 178-123(59.1%) with the spread. But just like football, when you're picking with that kind of accuracy, you can make money with the moneyline. Soccer is also in the works, and the backtest results are very, very promising; a sport where the only main bet is 'who will win'. Perfect. Don't think I've forgotten about baseball! Once enough stats have accumulated I'll try my hardest to do better than the 1000's of guys who've come before me. And you can bet that I will! (pun intended)

Since there are so many numbers, I'm going to skip the details and just post the main stats. If you want the details...I don't know why you would... just send me an email. This is for weeks 2-7, 87 games in all.

Win		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	41	30	73.2%
	60-69	22	17	77.3%
	70-79	17	10	58.8%
	80-89	7	6	85.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	63	72.4%
Spread		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	35	15	42.9%
	60-69	29	18	62.1%
	70-79	20	12	60.0%
	80-89	3	2	66.7%
	90-100	0	0	#DIV/0!
	Total	87	47	54.0%
Over		Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	17	13	76.5%
	60-69	26	13	50.0%
	70-79	27	15	55.6%
	80-89	15	9	60.0%
	90-100	2	2	100.0%
	Total	87	52	59.8%

Thats pretty good. Win: 72.4%, Spread: 54%, O/U: 59.8%
Really, it was just one bad week that brought the numbers down, unfortunately bad weeks are unavoidable and if anyone tells you otherwise, they're trying to scam you.

That's it for now. You can find me at nbablackbox.blogspot.com, mlbblackbox.blogspot.com, and soccerblackbox.blogspot.com. The latter 2 are under construction- soccer will feature the main leagues from England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. It will be up sooner than MLB, probably sometime this week.


Good luck, all! Be responsible, don't be greedy, and don't get scammed.