Week 8 Picks

Week 8 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 7 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 6 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 5 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

---
More picks are up now (10:30am), all will be up by tonight.
---
Almost all of the games are up. Fantasy and stats will be up tonight.

---
Everything is up. Including a donation button on the top right of the blog if you've had some luck with the predictions, if the fantasy projections put you at the top of your league, or if you just want to say thanks.


A match-up analysis to follow...

Week 7 Results

I just finished a 'Results' spreadsheet where you can find records for every week and the whole season. I made a table for the Overall season results. Then I separated the season into Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 5-7. After weeks 1-4, I realized that there was a bad trend in the way the ATS team was picked. By week 5, I made some adjustments and massive improvement came with it.

In the spreadsheet, I focus on pics that had confidence of over 60%. On the season (including weeks 1-4), ATS picks of >60% confidence are 56%; +360 units for an ROI of about 6%. Weeks 5-7 ATS ,>60%, picks are a very impressive +450 units with an ROI of over 27%.

Check out the spreadsheet for more information:
Results

On to week 7 results: 


Actually let's just step back a couple weeks, I've been bad about posting results:

Week 5:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	2	2	100%
60-69	7	5	71.43%
70-79	3	1	33.33%
80-89	2	2	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	3	2	66.67%
70-79	1	0	0%
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	7	53.85%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	5	3	60%
60-69	4	1	25%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	2	1	50%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%

Week 6:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	6	4	66.67%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	10	71.43%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	4	50%
60-69	5	3	60%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	1	1	100%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	14	8	57.14%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	10	6	60%
60-69	1	1	100%
70-79	2	1	50%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	8	61.54%

Week 7:

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	9	6	66.67%
60-69	2	2	100%
70-79	2	2	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	10	76.92%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	3	75%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	12	6	50%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	3	37.50%
60-69	4	2	50%
70-79	1	1	100%
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	13	6	46.15%

Note: Weeks 5 and 6 were both in the money at 54 and 57% accuracy, respectively. I cried a little when Miami let NO return that last minute interception for a TD. Miami was beating the 6 pt spread then they lost... :(. Week 7 ended at 50%. Picking straight up, all three weeks were over 70% accurate; week 7 hit 77%. 

Once again, the Fantasy projections were out of this world. NFLSim's Week 7 Passer rankings:  
1. Tom Brady: 3 TDs, 308 yds. 2. Peyton Manning: 3 TDs, 205 yds. 3. Drew Brees: 1 TD, 298 yds. 4. Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs, 246 yds (155.4 rating). 5. Donovan McNabb: 1 TD, 156 yds. I'll throw in one more; 6. Phillip Rivers: 268 yds, 3 TDs. 4 of the top 6 had 3 TD games!



Here are NFLSim's top rushing teams:
1. Miami Dolphins: 4 TDs, 137 yds. 2. NY Jets: 4 YDs, 316 yds. 3. Carolina Panthers: 1 TD, 116 yds. 4. Dallas Cowboys: 115 yds. 5. Oakland Raiders: 119 yds. As a bonus: 6. New Orleans Saints: 3 TDs, 138 yds. #1 and 2 had 4 TDs each! 3 out of the top 6 teams had at least 3 TDs!

Now for the defense:
1. GB Packers: 3 pts, 2 turnovers. 2. New England Pats: 7 pts, 3 TOs, 1 TD. 3. SF 49ers: 24 pts, 1 TO. 4. Buffalo Bills: 9 pts, 4 TOs. 5. NO Saints: 34 pts, 3 TOs, 2 TDs. That's an average of 15 pts, 2.6 TOs, and 0.6 TDs.

If you can find better fantasy rankings out there please let me know.