Bet Optimization Algorithm

The results for week 2 were none too impressive, but this makes my Bet Optimization Algorithm ("BOA") look much better. Simply put, BOA takes up to 21 individual bets, i.e. NYG win, MIA win, DAL win, MIN +3, etc., the payouts on those bets that Vegas offers, and the confidence NFLSim generates. Using the algorithms, BOA generates the optimal bets as well as what percentage of your bankroll you should wager on each bet. It spits out single bets and parlays of up to 6 teams. I didn't post the BOA's suggestions last week because I didn't want anyone relying on it, but I'll put them up for week 3. Keep in mind, it's still early in the season so things aren't as accurate as they could be, so be careful. Use at your own risk. Anyway, here's what it said to bet on last week. It generated a return on investment of 64% on the bets (all 31 of them). I'd say that's pretty successful.

To make it easier for me, I assign a number to each bet. All bets are on straight up winners on the moneyline, NO SPREAD. If there are numbers separated by a commas, those are parlays. All calculations are based on a total bankroll of $100. Makes calculations easier.

~"BOA ODDS" are BOA's calculated probability that the bet will win.
~"VEGAS PAYOUT" is the payout for that bet according to Vegas, in decimal form.
~"% OF BANKROLL" is the amount bankroll devoted to that bet.
~"POSSIBLE PAYOUT" is the amount won if the bet is won. (BANKROLL * % OF BANKROLL * VEGAS PAYOUT)
~"ACTUAL PAYOUT" is 0.00 if the bet loses or POSSIBLE PAYOUT if it wins.

1-BUF, 2-CHI, 3-DET, 4-MIN, 5-NO, 6-NYG, 7-KC, 8-TEN, 9-ATL, 10-SF, 11-BAL, 12-ARI, 13-NYJ, 14-DEN, 15-PIT, 16-PHI

BET	BOA ODDS	VEGAS PAYOUT	% OF BANKROLL	POSSIBLE PAYOUT			ACTUAL PAYOUT
15	91.00%	1.36	4.72%	6.41			6.41
9	80.00%	3.50	4.15%	14.53			0.00
10	79.00%	3.50	4.08%	14.28			14.28
7	81.00%	1.51	3.82%	5.77			0.00
8	79.00%	1.95	3.81%	7.44			7.44
9,15	72.80%	4.76	3.75%	17.85			0.00
10,15	71.89%	4.76	3.69%	17.55			17.55
8,15	71.89%	2.65	3.43%	9.08			9.08
14	74.00%	2.00	3.41%	6.82			6.82
7,15	73.71%	2.05	3.40%	6.99			0.00
9,10	63.20%	12.25	3.36%	41.21			0.00
7,9	64.80%	5.29	3.25%	17.17			0.00
8,9	63.20%	6.83	3.23%	22.05			0.00
7,10	63.99%	5.29	3.20%	16.89			0.00
8,10	62.41%	6.83	3.18%	21.70			21.70
6	76.00%	1.20	3.13%	3.76			3.76
14,15	67.34%	2.72	3.09%	8.41			8.41
16	65.00%	3.50	3.07%	10.76			0.00
9,10,15	57.51%	16.66	3.07%	51.17			0.00
9,14	59.20%	7.00	2.98%	20.88			0.00
7,9,15	58.97%	7.19	2.98%	21.39			0.00
8,9,15	57.51%	9.28	2.96%	27.46			0.00
10,14	58.46%	7.00	2.94%	20.55			20.55
7,10,15	58.23%	7.19	2.93%	21.06			0.00
8,10,15	56.79%	9.28	2.91%	27.05			27.05
7,8	63.99%	2.94	2.89%	8.52			0.00
1	64.00%	2.90	2.88%	8.36			8.36
6,9	60.80%	4.20	2.88%	12.08			0.00
7,8,9,10,15	36.80%	49.06	1.98%	97.36			0.00
7,9,10,15	46.58%	25.16	2.48%	62.51			0.00
1,8	50.56%	5.66	2.34%	13.22			13.22

Total Bankroll: $100
Total Winnings: $164.62
Total Profit: $64.62
Return on Investment: 64.62%

So even when the predictions aren't terribly accurate (53.3%), BOA is able to perform well based on the idea that the probabilities generated by NFLSim are equivalent to the probabilities in reality. Hopefully, for everyone, this will continue.