Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Superbowl XLII Bets

Here are hypothetical bets that would have been placed on the Super Bowl. I've used alternative spreads in addition to the normal spread to add some extra betting opportunities. Also the weird bet amounts come from an algorithm I developed which is used to determine bet size based on predicted %, payout, and bankroll. Sometimes it even has you on both sides of a bet, hedging yourself. Very interesting... here they are: (also bet amounts are in terms of percentages of your bankroll)

In order of best bet to good bet, starting with single bets.

Over/Under:
Under 53.5: 82%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 12.98
Win: 24.80

Spreads:
NYG +17.5: 77%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 10.75
Win: 14.62

NYG +15.5: 72%
Payout: 1.5
Bet Amount: 9.54
Win: 14.31

NE Win: 67%
Payout: 1.24
Bet Amount: 7.87
Win: 9.76

NYG +11.5: 63%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 7.81
Win: 14.91

NYG +7.5: 54%
Payout: 2.4
Bet Amount: 6.23
Win: 14.96

NYG +5.5: 44%
Payout: 2.85
Bet Amount: 4.36
Win: 12.42

NE -5.5: 56%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 4.23
Win: 5.75

Parlays:
Under 53.5, NYG +17.5: 63%
Payout: 2.6
Bet Amount: 8.76
Win: 22.75

Under 53.5, NYG +15.5: 59%
Payout: 2.87
Bet Amount: 8.01
Win: 22.93

Under 53.5, NYG +11.5: 52%
Payout: 3.65
Bet Amount: 6.87
Win: 25.07

Under 53.5, NE Win: 56%
Payout: 2.37
Bet Amount: 6.84
Win: 16.21

Under 53.5, NYG +7.5: 44%
Payout: 4.58
Bet Amount: 5.75
Win: 26.35

Summary:
After looking at the different bets, it becomes clear that the most likely outcome of the game was a close, low scoring affair. While NE was still predicted to win, their slim margin of victory opened up a myriad of betting opportunities.

The numerical results:
Had you started the day off with $100, by the end of the day you'd have $193.12 and a smile on your face.

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